Patience or Panic on All 30 MLB Teams' Worst Early 2022 Slumps
Beware the small sample size.
Everything is magnified when an MLB player struggles for the first few weeks of a new season. It's hard to look up at the scoreboard and see a sub-.200 batting average or an ERA that looks more like a phone number, but those early trends can shift dramatically.
A similar slump in August can go largely unnoticed, especially at a national level, but if a high-profile player struggles out of the gates it tends to snag headlines.
With all of that in mind, what follows is a dive into each MLB team's worst early slump and a ruling on whether it is a reason to panic or simply requires some patience. Advanced metrics, past track record and roster construction all played a role in deciding which category to lump players into.
AL East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: CF Cedric Mullins
Stats: 61 PA, .182/.250/.364, 5 XBH, 16 K
Arguably the biggest breakout star in baseball last year, Mullins has been slow out of the gates. His average exit velocity (89.4 to 90.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (39.4 to 47.5 percent) are actually both up relative to 2021, but his 26.2 percent strikeout rate is an issue. Still, as long as he keeps making quality contact, things should even out.
Verdict: Patience
Boston Red Sox: SP Nick Pivetta
Stats: 3 GS, 0-3, 10.03 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, 9 BB, 10 K
Pivetta has allowed 16 hits and nine walks in 11.2 innings, and his batted-ball metrics are some of the worst in baseball across the board, including a 56.4 percent hard-hit rate and 95.2 mph average exit velocity allowed. At this point, there is zero reason for optimism that he will right the ship based on his underlying metrics.
Verdict: Panic
New York Yankees: SP Gerrit Cole
Stats: 3 GS, 0-0, 6.35 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 7 BB, 12 K
After a pair of "meh" starts to begin the year, Cole failed to make it out of the second inning against the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday, walking five batters in 1.2 innings before getting the hook. It was the shortest start of his MLB career, and for a Yankees team counting on him to be the ace of the staff, it's alarming to say the least.
Verdict: Panic
Tampa Bay Rays: C Mike Zunino
Stats: 31 PA, .071/.129/.107, 1 XBH, 13 K
Even in a breakout 33-homer, 3.8-WAR season last year, Zunino still batted just .216 with a 35.2 percent strikeout rate, so a low batting average and plenty of strikeouts is nothing new. Luckily, his backup Francisco Mejia is raking right now, and there was a good chance he was going to take on a large role as the season progressed anyway. A quality backup can go a long way in easing the panic.
Verdict: Patience
Toronto Blue Jays: SS Bo Bichette
Stats: 62 PA, .213/.226/.295, 3 XBH, 16 K
The stat that jumps off the page here is one walk in 62 plate appearances. The 24-year-old Bichette has always had an aggressive approach, walking just 5.8 percent of the time last year when he was one of baseball's most productive hitters. That and the fact that he has a pair of two-hit performances in his last five games is reason enough to say patience, but at some point he's going to be a bit more selective.
Verdict: Patience
AL Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: Second Base
Stats: 48 PA, .133/.188/.244, 4 XBH, 12 K
Leury Garcia (3-for-33, 8 K) and Josh Harrison (3-for-28, 5 K) have provided absolutely nothing offensively this year. That duo has also seen time in left field and at third base, respectively, but they were expected to hold down the second base position. How long before Romy Gonzalez or Yolbert Sanchez get a look?
Verdict: Panic
Cleveland Guardians: DH Franmil Reyes
Stats: 53 PA, .196/.226/.314, 2 XBH, 20 K
The "Franimal" ranks in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity, so he's still crushing the ball when he does make contact. The trouble is those 17 strikeouts, and the fact that he's drawn just two walks in his first 49 plate appearances. He homered on Thursday and Friday, so perhaps that will be a jumping off point.
Verdict: Patience
Detroit Tigers: 2B Jonathan Schoop
Stats: 49 PA, .111/.184/.222, 3 XBH, 9 K
Schoop hit .198/.230/.284 with 26 strikeouts in 87 plate appearances over the first month of the season last year, and he ultimately righted the ship to post a 108 OPS+ with 22 home runs, 84 RBI and a reasonable 19.7 percent strikeout rate. Maybe it's just as simple as him not liking the cold weather.
Verdict: Patience
Kansas City Royals: SS Adalberto Mondesi
Stats: 42 PA, .150/.190/.150, 0 XBH, 14 K
The speed and defense remain tantalizing, but at a certain point the Royals are going to have to accept the fact that Mondesi is never going to hit enough to be an everyday player. It's time to shift Nicky Lopez back to shortstop and Whit Merrifield to second base, which would open up a spot in the outfield for spring training star Edward Olivares to show what he can do.
Verdict: Panic
Minnesota Twins: 1B Miguel Sano
Stats: 48 PA, .077/.229/.154, 1 XBH, 14 K
Not only is Sano hitting a paltry .077 with 14 strikeouts, but his batted-ball metrics are also down across the board. That's bad news for a player whose value is almost entirely contingent on hitting the ball hard. Once Alex Kirilloff returns from the injured list, the Twins might need to seriously consider making a change at first base. Sano's $14 million club option for next year is looking less and less appealing.
Verdict: Panic
AL West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: RF Kyle Tucker
Stats: 52 PA, .087/.192/.217, 2 XBH, 11 K
With an .061 batting average on balls in play, despite respectable batted-ball metrics, Tucker has undoubtedly been one of baseball's unluckiest players in the early going. The 25-year-old is simply too talented to continue struggling to this degree, and he's too important to Houston's success for them to be anything but patient.
Verdict: Patience
Los Angeles Angels: Shortstop
Stats: 50 PA, .136/.204/.205, 2 XBH, 12 K
Presumptive starting shortstop David Fletcher went 1-for-13 before he was placed on the injured list with a hip injury, and utility players Tyler Wade and Andrew Velazquez have failed to pick up the slack. Even a healthy Fletcher is a below average offensive player as he hit .262 with a .297 on-base percentage and 71 OPS+ a year ago. The position could be a black hole all year.
Verdict: Panic
Oakland Athletics: SP Adam Oller
Stats: 3 GS, 0-2, 11.17 ERA, 2.38 WHIP, 8 BB, 8 K
Despite allowing 11 hits and seven earned runs in 6.1 innings during spring training, Oller broke camp with the No. 5 spot in the Oakland rotation after Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt were traded away. He recorded just 14 outs in his first two MLB starts before allowing five hits, two walks and five earned runs in five innings on Friday. It might be time to turn elsewhere if he has another poor outing.
Verdict: Panic
Seattle Mariners: CF Julio Rodriguez
Stats: 52 PA, .167/.231/.208, 2 XBH, 23 K
A lot has been made of some questionable called third strikes that Rodriguez has been saddled with in the early going, but it's still difficult to ignore just how much he has struggled. A demotion back to Triple-A seems almost inevitable at this point, but that doesn't mean he's not still capable of living up to his vast offensive potential. He's still only 21 years old, after all, and a return to the minors could actually be more beneficial to his continued development than patience at this point.
Verdict: Panic
Texas Rangers: 2B Marcus Semien
Stats: 60 PA, .170/.233/.226, 3 XBH, 11 K
The entire Rangers pitching staff is a dumpster fire right now, but the more concerning slump belongs to their new $175 million second baseman. Luckily, he appears to be turning a corner. After a 2-for-22 start, he's collected at least one hit in six of his past eight games, including his first multi-hit game of the year on Wednesday.
Verdict: Patience
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NL East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: RF Eddie Rosario
Stats: 43 PA, .079/.186/.105, 1 XBH, 6 K
A game-changing deadline addition last year who went on to win NLCS MVP, Rosario re-upped with the Braves on a two-year, $16 million deal during the offseason. The 30-year-old is just 3-for-38 to start the year, and his 25.0 percent hard-hit rate is among the worst in baseball. Luckily, the impending return of Ronald Acuna Jr. will soon allow the Braves to pick their spots with Rosario to try to get him going, and he can still be a valuable piece of the puzzle.
Verdict: Patience
Miami Marlins: 1B Jesus Aguilar
Stats: 50 PA, .190/.280/.190, 0 XBH, 13 K
Aguilar was the team leader in home runs (22) and RBI (93) a year ago, but he has been a non-factor in the early going, tallying just one hit with runners in scoring position. However, with Garrett Cooper also on the roster and Lewin Diaz waiting in the minors, Aguilar has plenty of in-house support while he sorts out his early struggles.
Verdict: Patience
New York Mets: C James McCann
Stats: 34 PA, .138/.235/.276, 2 XBH, 6 K
After posting a disappointing 77 OPS+ and minus-0.2 WAR in the first season of a four-year, $40.6 million deal last year, McCann is not providing much hope for a bounce-back season in 2022. His batted-ball metrics are horrible, and he's simply not a good enough defender to provide nothing offensively. How much longer before the Mets start to consider rushing Francisco Alvarez to the majors?
Verdict: Panic
Philadelphia Phillies: Center Field
Stats: 43 PA, .108/.190/.135, 1 XBH, 11 K
Odubel Herrera was activated from the injured list on Friday after starting the season with a strained oblique, so hopefully this glaring hole in the Phillies roster is plugged. The 30-year-old hit a respectable .260/.310/.416 with 27 doubles, 13 home runs and 51 RBI last season, and he should provide an immediate upgrade over the duo of Matt Vierling and Simon Muzziotti.
Verdict: Patience
Washington Nationals: CF Victor Robles
Stats: 43 PA, .105/.171/.132, 1 XBH, 15 K
Once viewed as a future franchise cornerstone and the No. 13 prospect in baseball at the start of the 2017 season, Robles is now simply trying to hold onto a job in the big leagues. His speed and defense will always hold some value as a fourth outfielder, but his .202/.295/.290 line in 601 plate appearances since the start of the 2019 season is a big enough sample size for the team to start looking elsewhere for a starting center fielder.
Verdict: Panic
NL Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: SP Marcus Stroman
Stats: 3 GS, 0-2, 8.78 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 6 BB, 14 K
With a 57.3 percent career ground-ball rate, Stroman has done as well as anyone over the course of his career keeping the ball on the ground. However, he has generated 11 ground balls and 18 fly balls in his last two starts, so sorting out his sinker is going to be the key to righting the ship. He has acknowledged that his mechanics are out of sync, so it's just a matter of dialing things in after a shortened spring.
Verdict: Patience
Cincinnati Reds: The Entire Outfield
Stats: 160 PA, .130/.201/.260, 9 XBH, 51 K
Between Tommy Pham (47 PA, .146 BA), Aristides Aquino (40 PA, .053 BA), Jake Fraley (35 PA, .129 BA) and Nick Senzel (27 PA, .080 BA), the Reds outfield has been a big reason the team has stumbled out of the gates to a 2-12 start. Getting Tyler Naquin back healthy would be a nice start, but what can it really do besides be patient when it's an entire collection of players struggling?
Verdict: Patience
Milwaukee Brewers: CF Lorenzo Cain
Stats: 30 PA, .143/.167/.214, 2 XBH, 5 K
With a $17 million salary, Cain is the second-highest paid player on the Brewers roster. After playing just 83 games the past two seasons, he looked like a potential bounce-back candidate with a clean bill of health heading into 2022. Instead, his early performance has him trending toward being an expensive fourth outfielders, especially with Tyrone Taylor behind him on the depth chart.
Verdict: Panic
Pittsburgh Pirates: RF Cole Tucker
Stats: 38 PA, .158/.158/.211, 1 XBH, 15 K
Tucker is a career .212/.262/.319 hitter for a 57 OPS+ in 444 plate appearances, and he's a second baseman playing out of position in right field where he is a poor defender. At this point, it's unclear why he's on the MLB roster, let alone occupying a spot in the starting lineup. The 25-year-old has a minor league option remaining and it's time to use it.
Verdict: Panic
St. Louis Cardinals: C Yadier Molina
Stats: 25 PA, .160/.160/.160, 0 XBH, 1 K
This was bound to happen eventually. Molina will turn 40 years old in July, and his offensive production has been steadily diminishing for the past several seasons. Now it seems to have fallen off a cliff as he's gone 4-for-25 with zero walks in his first 25 plate appearances. Can the Cardinals smoothly transition to Andrew Knizner as the starting catcher without upsetting a franchise icon? It's not going to be an easy situation for manager Oli Marmol to navigate.
Verdict: Panic
NL West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: C Carson Kelly
Stats: 34 PA, .063/.118/.094, 1 XBH, 13 K
Kelly was one of the stars of the season's first month last year, hitting .340/.507/.717 with six home runs and 14 RBI in April. This season has been the polar opposite, as he has looked utterly lost at the dish through his first 11 games. The D-backs are thin on players to build around, and Kelly failing to recapture the form he showed a year ago would be one fewer long-term piece to the rebuilding team's puzzle.
Verdict: Panic
Colorado Rockies: 2B Brendan Rodgers
Stats: 47 PA, .095/.170/.119, 1 XBH, 16 K
Rodgers finally appeared to turn a corner last year when he hit .296/.325/.490 with 15 doubles, 10 home runs and 31 RBI in 61 games after the All-Star break. The unquestioned starter at second base to begin the year, he is 4-for-42 with 16 strikeouts as one of the few weak links on a Rockies team that is exceeding expectations. There is enough potential in his bat that patience could pay off in a significant way, so for now he deserves a long leash.
Verdict: Patience
Los Angeles Dodgers: 3B Justin Turner
Stats: 53 PA, .213/.283/.255, 2 XBH, 10 K
Is Turner finally hitting the wall in his age-37 season? His average exit velocity (27th percentile) and hard-hit rate (38th percentile) are the worst of his career as a full-time player, and he has inexplicably still not recorded a barrel on 38 batted-ball events. There's a reason no one was willing to give him that four-year deal in free agency.
Verdict: Panic
San Diego Padres: CF Trent Grisham
Stats: 57 PA, .143/.250/.245, 3 XBH, 18 K
Grisham was dealing with some mechanical issues in his swing during the second half last season, and they still don't seem to be ironed out. He is swinging less (40.5 to 33.2 percent) and whiffing more (21.7 to 28.9 percent), which reads like a player who doesn't have the same confidence in the batter's box he did in the past. Fourth outfielder Jose Azocar is 2-for-6 with a double in limited action, and he could see more playing time, but Grisham is a key piece of the Padres' offensive attack and needs reps to get on track.
Verdict: Patience
San Francisco Giants: DH Darin Ruf
Stats: 60 PA, .176/.300/.216, 2 XBH, 17 K
Ruf quietly posted a 143 OPS+ with 16 home runs and 43 RBI in only 312 plate appearances last year. He stood to benefit as much as anyone from the implementation of the universal DH, but instead, he's off to a 9-for-51 start with 17 strikeouts. Moving him out of the No. 3 spot in the lineup would be a logical first step before fully pressing the panic button, and the impending return of LaMonte Wade Jr. will give him a left-handed hitting platoon partner to help take some additional pressure off.
Verdict: Patience
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and accurate through Friday's games.
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