Biggest X-Factors and Expert Predictions for Women's NCAA Final Four
And then there were four.
The 2022 Women's Final Four begins Friday night from Minneapolis, where three No. 1 seeds and perennial women's basketball superpower UConn will duke it out for a spot in the NCAA national championship game.
We have questions; they'll have answers. Does Paige Bueckers continue her magic in her hometown after a master-class performance in a double-overtime classic against NC State? Can Louisville, a No. 1 seed with an underdog mindset, barricade Naismith Player of the Year Aliyah Boston and South Carolina from the national title game?
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Does Stanford repeat? Does UConn win its 12th national championship? Does Louisville, one of the most storied programs in the game, finally win its first title?
Right now, Stanford looks like the best team in the tournament, but don't underestimate the will of Boston.
No. 1 South Carolina vs. No. 1 Louisville
Friday, April 1, at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
One Critical Stat: Field-goal percentage
The Louisville Cardinals enter the Final Four with a 45.6 field-goal percentage that's the ninth-best in the country, according to Her Hoops Stats. Is this because they run and score in transition? It might be. Though shooting 35.9 percent from three—a rate that puts them in the top 20 nationally—also helps.
National championship favorite South Carolina ranks 69th in the country in field-goal percentage, shooting 42.6 percent. Its best shooting game in the tournament came in an 80-50 romp over Creighton, but it's worth mentioning how great of a matchup that was for the Gamecocks. The Bluejays were undersized, didn't make enough three-pointers and weren't used to playing against a team as physical as South Carolina.
Louisville has a bit more length and defensive savvy to make sure Boston doesn't have easy looks in the paint. The Cardinals also have much better outside shooting than the Gamecocks, which leads us to our impact players for the first game.
The X-Factors
For South Carolina: Destanni Henderson
Louisville's strengths immediately put more pressure on Henderson to play her best basketball on both ends of the floor. If she commits turnovers, the Gamecocks will have to deal with Louisville's potency in transition. South Carolina will need her to take care of the basketball, score it and use her speed to make sure opposing point guard Chelsie Hall doesn't get too comfortable.
For Louisville: Chelsie Hall
Speaking of Hall, her 15-point performance against Michigan was vital. If she didn't knock down three of her four threes, the Cardinals might not have made it to their fourth Final Four in head coach Jeff Walz's tenure. A solid offensive performance from Hall takes the pressure off Hailey Van Lith, who has had a monster tournament, scoring at least 20 points in every game. Expect Brea Beal, the Gamecocks' best perimeter defender, to be all over Van Lith from start to finish.
Prediction: South Carolina emerges
As Eric Nemchock at Swish Appeal wrote, the difference between the 2021 Gamecocks and the national championship-winning 2017 Gamecocks is that this year's roster has fewer players who can take over a game on offense. Boston alone has been the closer for the Gamecocks. Could this be Dawn Staley and Co.'s downfall? It's possible.
Even if South Carolina's guards don't make shots, Van Lith scores 20 and WNBA draft prospect Emily Engstler helps shut down Boston while filling up the stat sheet, it's not certain the Cardinals will win. North Carolina gave the Gamecocks a run for their money in the Sweet 16, but the main reason the Tar Heels couldn't seal the upset was because they couldn't make their shots, something the Cardinals are more in position to do.
The Gamecocks, however, have compensated for their shot-making struggles with their dominance of the offensive glass. They have the top offensive rebounding rate in the country (45.9 percent). South Carolina also has Boston, who accumulated 27 double-doubles in a row during her junior season. After missing the final shot that would have sent her team to the national championship a year ago, Boston is going to have a lot of juice, and Louisville will have to overcome her hunger to win.
The Gamecocks squeak by the Cardinals by a mere score, but I don't see it getting any easier for South Carolina in the national championship game.
No. 1 Stanford vs. No. 5 UConn
Friday, April 1, at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
One Critical Stat: Fouls per game
The defending champion Stanford Cardinal foul 16.1 times per game, which is 156th in the country, according to Her Hoop Stats. The UConn Huskies foul 14.0 times per game, putting them in the top 10 percent. While this number might need to be adjusted because of the Big East being a conference with less length than the Pac-12, Stanford's fouling revolves around one of their largest keys to winning this game: keeping the incredibly foul-prone Cameron Brink on the floor.
This is going to be an issue for the Huskies as well because they go into the Final Four with one less post player in Dorka Juhasz, who fractured her left wrist in their Elite Eight win against NC State. Against the Wolfpack, the posts remaining in Aaliyah Edwards and Olivia Nelson-Ododa combined for nine personal fouls.
UConn senior guard Christyn Williams noted Thursday that the key to this game is going to be on the defensive end. "I think whoever plays the best defense tomorrow is going to win the game, if I'm being completely honest," she said. "Defense and rebounding is going to be huge for both teams." As will staying out of foul trouble.
The X-Factors
For Stanford: Lexie Hull
Hull isn't one of the Cardinal's brightest stars, but she might be Stanford's most important player especially when Haley Jones or Brink aren't playing at their best. If it's a wide-open three, a backdoor cut or finding a teammate on a backdoor cut, Hull has used her intangibles in her toughness and competitiveness to help set Stanford on course this season when it's been rattled.
Case in point: Against Texas, the Cardinal struggled with the Longhorns' ball pressure and Brink only played six minutes in the first half. But it was Hull who scored 12 points on 5-of-9 shooting to keep Stanford ahead by a slim margin in the first half. "She has no quit in her," head coach Tara VanDerveer said. "She's really playing great, getting out—she works at every aspect of the game. She rebounds. She plays defense, and she's scoring."
For UConn: Aaliyah Edwards
Edwards has the potential to make life hard for Stanford's 4s and 5s and that includes Haley Jones, Stanford's point forward. Edwards can guard multiple positions and has the potential to recover on defense quickly and efficiently. She just has to use her talents to play a bit smarter than she played against NC State. If she didn't foul Kai Crutchfield on her three-point attempt, that game might have finished after one overtime rather than two.
Edwards had some issues with her confidence earlier this season. But when she played without fear Monday night in the Elite Eight, it led to some clutch plays on offense, including a wild putback off an Azzi Fudd miss to help UConn hold on to its lead in double OT.
Prediction: Stanford advances in epic fashion
Overcoming Stanford's depth is going to be difficult for UConn. But if the Huskies play smart and force Brink into foul trouble, that gives them their best shot at winning the game. But even if Brink is in foul trouble, this is such a tall task for UConn. To win, it'll need to disrupt Stanford's beautiful offense—which is similar to its own—more than Texas could in the Elite Eight and its star guards will need to be unguardable again.
Do Bueckers' and Fudd's heroics continue? They could. But this Stanford team has looked even better than it did in last year's NCAA tournament and it's the reigning national champions. If the Cardinal don't get production out of their backcourt of the Hull sisters and Anna Wilson and don't get some shots to fall from shooting specialist Hannah Jump, UConn will have an easier time keeping this competitive.
The Cardinal win the game on a Cameron Brink three-ball after she spent limited minutes on the floor in the first half. Yes, Brink can do that now.
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