Lions Would Be Foolish to Go All-In on Malik Willis in 2022 Draft

NFL teams will draft a quarterback higher than expected while in search of that all-important franchise player to lead the offense. Signal-callers with impressive athletic profiles can easily slip into the top five even if their body of work leaves much to be desired. 

Since February, Malik Willis has gained steam with dazzling performances during Senior Bowl week, rave reviews from his interviews at the NFL Scouting Combine (h/t ESPN's Matt Miller) and some eye-popping throws at Liberty's pro day.

We're nearly a month away from the 2022 draft, and analysts have bought into the buzz around Willis—so much that he's considered an option at No. 2 for the Detroit Lions. 

"Maybe I'm buying into the pro day hype, but Willis has looked amazing throughout the pre-draft process," Miller wrote. "Detroit won't find a player with his upside or traits with its second first-round pick (No. 32). If the Lions are going in on a quarterback this draft, it should be Willis." 

Miller isn't the only one, though. NFL.com's Chad Reuter shared his take on why he slotted Willis to the Lions in his recent mock draft: 

"Willis had a lot of fun making big throws at his pro day, but that performance is not why I have him going second overall. He's been one of my favorite players in this class all year; I projected him being picked at No. 3 in my first mock draft. Head coach Dan Campbell stated during his NFL Scouting Combine press conference that he's willing to change his offense to fit the skills of the best football player he can get at the position. I don't think that was meant as a hint, but it at least shows that some teams are open to taking a playmaker instead of requiring robotic efficiency from their signal-caller. With Jared Goff in place for 2022, Willis could get a great opportunity to hone his craft until his chance arrives."

Both analysts have fair reasons for considering Willis a fit for Detroit. He's a special athlete, and we saw that in game action during Senior Bowl week in Mobile, Alabama:

Even if Willis isn't ready to start in his rookie season, a creative play-caller can use him in certain packages, similar to what San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan did with last year's third-overall pick, Trey Lance. Willis can add another wrinkle to an offense and make defenders miss. He rushed for 1,822 yards and 27 touchdowns in two seasons at Liberty.
With the spotlight on Willis at Liberty's pro day, he didn't disappoint, showing off his big arm with deep dimes downfield:

Willis' mobility and rocket arm are evident, but let's dive into the finer details that could make film junkies cringe when they see him mocked to the Lions at No. 2. 

Bleacher Report's Nate Tice acknowledged Willis' upside, but he laid out legitimate concerns that may hinder him on the pro level:

"Overall, Willis is more of a toolsy player than a viable starting NFL quarterback at this point in time. He will be a big project for whichever NFL team selects him—albeit a fun project. He played in a simple offense in college, so he'll be facing a huge jump in complexity of not only the offense he plays in but the defenses he will be facing. And his lack of anticipation and consistency even on simpler route concepts is worrisome."

Willis didn't see much action against Power Five conferences that churn out blue-chip NFL talent every year.

Against an SEC opponent (Ole Miss) last season, he had one of his worst passing performances, throwing for just 173 yards and three interceptions. He also threw three interceptions in games against Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana-Monroe, so we cannot say the Liberty standout consistently dominated competition outside of the power-conference teams last season.

Derrik Klassen offered constructive criticisms of Willis' game with illustrations in his film room study for Football Outsiders:

"From blitz replacement to eye progression to anticipation over the middle of the field, Willis just does not deliver in the advanced pillars of quarterback play right now. That is not to say Willis can never do those things moving forward, or has never shown brief glimpses of them, but they are not yet reliable parts of his game."

Kendall Warner/Associated Press

In the conclusion of his breakdown, Klassen points out the "rarity of Willis' physical tools," which makes him a high-upside project who can develop into an NFL starter. However, he also believes a weak quarterback class drives up the physically gifted prospect's draft projection and gave him a Day 2 grade.

Because of Willis' concerning accuracy with a completion rate of 62.4 percent with the Flames, he's drawn some comparisons to Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who came out of Wyoming completing 56.2 percent of his passes as a starter in two seasons.

Ryan McCrystal of Sharp Football Analysis isn't buying it, though:

Beyond a blanket statement about Willis' accuracy issues, he must catch up to the speed of the game against tougher competition. His pro team will likely sit him for the 2022 season, which is fine—again, look at Lance in San Francisco. With that said, Detroit has a much different situation.

Unlike the 49ers, the Lions don't have postseason aspirations in Year 2 of a rebuild.
Detroit's current regime has at least another offseason to gradually build the roster. General manager Brad Holmes made minor moves in free agency, and he doesn't need to reach for a quarterback in April.

Lon Horwedel/Associated Press

Last season, quarterback Jared Goff logged his best passer rating (91.5) since 2018 and his lowest interception rate since 2017 with a career-high 67.2 percent completion rate. He only threw for 3,245 yards and 19 touchdowns, but that's not bad for a signal-caller whose most productive pass-catching threat (Amon-Ra St. Brown) was a fourth-round rookie.

If Goff isn't the guy to lead Detroit and the offense falls apart in 2022, the Lions would likely have another top-five pick in 2023. Next year, they could have a shot to draft Alabama's Bryce Young, who won the 2021 Heisman Trophy, or Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, who finished fourth place for the prestigious honor.

With a serviceable starter in Goff and two underclassmen who could come out of the collegiate ranks more accomplished with far better passing numbers than Willis, the Lions should remain patient and pass on the Liberty product.

In 2023, Detroit will have Goff on a moveable contract and two first-round picks, one from the Matthew Stafford trade with the Rams.

The Lions can use its premium picks to move up for Young or Stroud—if they declare for the draft—or trade for a veteran upgrade. Both options make more sense than overdrafting Willis at No. 2.

Instead, the front office should take a look at a few top-notch defenders in edge-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, safety Kyle Hamilton and cornerback Ahmad Gardner to strengthen a defense that allowed the second-most points and fourth-most total yards in 2021.

          

College statistics are provided by cfbstats.com.       

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.