Power-Ranking Every MLB Team's Ace Entering 2022 Season
A little over a week from now, every team in Major League Baseball will open the 2022 season by putting their best foot forward.
Or rather, best arm on the mound.
That's right, folks. It's time to rank all 30 teams' aces. This is not to be confused for a ranking of the top 30 aces. Whereas such a list would have multiple hurlers from the same team, this one has just one for each. Just this once, Jose Quintana is in the same discussion as Jacob deGrom.
In determining these rankings, we considered what each pitcher has done in the past but also what he likely has in store for 2022. This is where such matters as age-, injury- and performance-related issues became especially relevant.
Let's count 'em down, going five at a time for the bottom 20 and then one at a time for the top 10.
30-26: Quintana, Corbin, Bumgarner, Verlander and Greinke
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30. LHP Jose Quintana, Pittsburgh Pirates
2021 Stats: 10 GS, 63.0 IP, 74 H (12 HR), 85 K, 35 BB, 6.43 ERA, 69 ERA+, Minus-0.9 rWAR
There really is no right choice for who's No. 1 in the Pirates rotation, but we'll defer to Roster Resource and go with Quintana. He was once a well-kept secret with the Chicago White Sox between 2012 and 2016. Now he's a 33-year-old with a 96 ERA+ since 2017. One good thing is that he used his changeup more and whiffed 12.1 batters per nine innings in 2021, which will have to do for a reason to hope.
29. LHP Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals
2021 Stats: 31 GS, 171.2 IP, 192 H (37 HR), 143 K, 60 BB, 5.82 ERA, 70 ERA+, Minus-1.2 rWAR
After having surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, Stephen Strasburg won't be ready to start on Opening Day. The task would default to Corbin, who's a fallen ace in his own right. The 32-year-old was excellent in 2018 and 2019, but he's been hit hard as he's posted a 76 ERA+ over the last two years. His slider still functions well, but his fastballs have become slug magnets.
28. LHP Madison Bumgarner, Arizona Diamondbacks
After it dipped to 88.4 mph in 2020, Bumgarner resurrected his fastball well enough to throw it at an average of 90.4 mph in 2021. If the 32-year-old can maintain that and his characteristically strong control, he has a shot at being a respectable innings-eater in 2022. But an ace like the one he used to be for the San Francisco Giants? It's hard to find a perspective from which that ship hasn't sailed.
27. RHP Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
After winning his second Cy Young Award in 2019, Verlander looked like his normal self in Houston's 2020 opener on July 24. Because of Tommy John surgery, however, he hasn't pitched in an actual game since then. He's looked good so far this spring, yet it's impossible to not have reservations about a 39-year-old who's not only coming off major surgery, but also unproven in baseball's post-sticky-stuff era.
26. RHP Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
Since leaving the Royals via trade in 2010, all Greinke has done is further pad a resume that's worthy of enshrinement in Cooperstown. At 38 years old and with his ability to miss bats pretty much gone, there's only so much he can do at this point to keep padding said resume. But as long as he keeps throwing strikes, he figures to eat innings and perhaps see his ERA benefit from Kauffman Stadium's dimensions.
25-21: Gray, Rodriguez, Manaea, Hendricks and McClanahan
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25. RHP Jon Gray, Texas Rangers
By way of a four-year, $56 million contract, the Rangers have placed a fairly large wager on the possibility that Gray can fully unlock his talent away from Coors Field. Though his career home/road splits offer little hope in this regard, any guy with a mid-90s fastball and an intriguing new-look slider is always going to have a shot. Plus, it can't hurt that Globe Life Field has leaned pitcher-friendly since opening in 2020.
24. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
Since winning 19 games for the Boston Red Sox in 2019, Rodriguez has missed 2020 with myocarditis and returned to pitch just OK in 2021. Yet he also fanned a career-high 10.6 batters per nine innings last season, and there's some evidence that he was victimized by Boston's lousy defense on balls in play. So, it's not a given that the 28-year-old's peak performance from three years ago is a one-off.
23. LHP Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics
There perhaps ought to be an asterisk here, as even now there's a decent chance that Manaea will start the 2022 season with another team. Regardless, he's better suited to a mid-rotation role than that of a No. 1. He commands the ball well and he's capable of missing wood with his low-key devastating changeup, but it's not a good look for his sinker that it was touched for 19 home runs last year.
22. RHP Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs
Through the first seven years of his career, Hendricks pitched to a 134 ERA+ and gathered Cy Young Award votes on two occasions, including in 2020. As for what happened in 2021, it seems like a mix of a lack of proper motivation and a failure of imagination with the 32-year-old's pitch mix. Both things should be fixable in 2022, and it'll be a significant rebound season for The Professor if they are.
21. LHP Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays
Want to see McClanahan throw a 101 mph fastball with tailing action? Here you go. That speaks to the dazzling left arm attached to his body, and he also demonstrated good control as a 24-year-old rookie last season. What he must prove now is that he can sustain his best qualities. In 2021, he generally didn't pitch deep into games and front-loaded his best velo early in the year.
20-16: Marquez, Nola, Darvish, Gray and Mahle
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20. RHP German Marquez, Colorado Rockies
Though he made the NL All-Star team, last year also saw Marquez lose a mile per hour off his average fastball and deteriorate with a 6.12 ERA in his last 13 starts. But if nothing else, give the guy credit for how well he pitches at Coors Field. And since he's only 27, last year may have been a case of him running out of gas after a short season rather than one of him beginning to exit his prime.
19. RHP Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
With Zack Wheeler behind on his throwing program, Aaron Nola is slated to make his fifth straight Opening Day start. His 2018 and 2020 seasons are proof that he can be a Cy Young-caliber ace in his own right. His 2019 and 2021 seasons? Less so. If the 28-year-old wants to bounce back in 2022, it's crucial that he reinvigorate a curveball that's become oddly hittable over the last two seasons.
18. RHP Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres
After finishing second in the NL Cy Young Award race with the Cubs in 2020, Darvish was an All-Star halfway through his first season with the Padres in 2021. But then he stumbled, posting a 6.72 ERA over his final 13 starts. That he was limited by injuries is both the good news and the bad news. In theory, he should recover. But since he's 35 years old, another theory holds that his durability is past its prime.
17. RHP Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins
Gray hasn't topped 200 innings since 2015 and he's now 32, so the Twins can only depend on so many innings from him. He also comes with a "sticky stuff" question after his spin dropped following last year's ban. However, the guy was an All-Star just in 2019 and he maintained strong peripherals last year. Leaving behind the Cincinnati Reds' bandbox park and bad defense may prove to be all he needed.
16. RHP Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds
With Luis Castillo dealing with sore right shoulder, Mahle is slated for his first Opening Day start in 2022. He arguably deserved it anyway after racking up a 129 ERA+ and 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings over the last two seasons. He elevates his fastball as well as anyone, with a good slider and splitter to boot. He had good peripherals basically across the board in 2021, so more of the same is in order for his age-27 season.
15-11: Means, Wainwright, Berrios, Ohtani and Eovaldi
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15. LHP John Means, Baltimore Orioles
Though he didn't technically pitch a perfect game, Means sure came close with a no-hit, no-walk, no-HBP performance on May 5 last year. That was in the middle of a two-month run as arguably baseball's best pitcher, which he unfortunately couldn't sustain after suffering a shoulder injury in June. Health permitting, though, the 28-year-old has the four-pitch mix and excellent command to get right back on track.
14. RHP Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
It feels unfair to expect Wainwright to repeat the season he just had at 39 all over again at the age of 40 in 2022. Especially given that, with his fastball now in the high 80s, he isn't exactly unhittable. But the guy simply knows how to pitch, both in the sense that he doesn't hurt himself with walks and that he's good at managing contact. To the latter, it also helps that he's pitching in front of arguably MLB's best defense.
13. RHP Jose Berrios, Toronto Blue Jays
Since enduring a brutal introduction to the majors in 2016, Berrios has been a consistently above-average pitcher to the tune of a 117 ERA+. His struggles against left-handed batters have held him back to this point, but perhaps not for much longer if he puts more trust in a changeup that's proved to be effective against them. Generally, it does to them what his curveball does to right-handed batters.
12. RHP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Not every team's ace also has 40-home run power, but, hey, that's Ohtani for you. His splitter might be the single best pitch in baseball today, so it's a good sign that he didn't even need it to dominate in his spring debut. It was all fastballs and sliders, the former of which could frankly use a reputation improvement after 2021. The big catch, of course, is that Ohtani will only make so many starts as part of a six-man rotation in 2022.
11. RHP Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox
The four-year, $68 million contract that Eovaldi signed after 2018 looked like a huge mistake in 2019, yet his last 41 outings have yielded a 127 ERA+ and 5.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's 32 now, so there's no telling if he'll add to his already-extensive injury history. But if he keeps running his fastball up to 101 mph and disrupting batters' timing with both his secondaries and altering deliveries, the results should keep coming.
10. RHP Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
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Logan Webb suddenly looked like the best pitcher on the planet in last year's National League Division Series, in which he made two starts and held the Los Angeles Dodgers to one run on nine hits, one walk and 17 strikeouts over 14.1 innings.
Even before the playoffs, Webb had been on a 20-start run in which he'd shut down opposing offenses to the tune of a 2.40 ERA with 103 more strikeouts than walks over 116.1 innings. He leaned especially hard on a sinker and slider that complemented each other beautifully.
In this way, Webb zigged at a time when many pitchers zag with pitch mixes that flow off the four-seamer. It's no wonder opposing batters were flummoxed. They granted Webb a 91st-percentile chase rate, and only Corbin Burnes drew more swings outside the lower edges of the zone, specifically.
This allowed Webb to rack up a 60.9 ground-ball percentage and 26.5 strikeout percentage. Since batted ball data became available in the early 2000s, Tyson Ross is the only other pitcher to hit those marks in a season.
To be sure, the 25-year-old Webb is still in "prove it" territory. There's little question, however, that his formula for continued success is as sound as can be.
9. RHP Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
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The Miami Marlins rightfully got a lot of crud for trading Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna a couple of years ago, but at least the latter deal is increasingly looking like a major win.
This is thanks to Sandy Alcantara, who's only gotten better since breaking out as an All-Star in 2019. He's one of only nine hurlers to post at least 240 innings and a 130 ERA+ since 2020.
When watching Alcantara pitch, the sheer electricity of his hard stuff is the easiest thing to notice. He got his four-seamer as high as 102 mph last year, while his sinker featured both high-90s velo and GIF-worthy movement.
That latter pitch helped make Alcantara one of baseball's leading ground-ball artists in 2021, and he was likewise easily in above-average territory by limiting batted balls to 87.6 mph in exit velocity. So on contact management alone, he should be able to sustain as an ace.
There is the possibility, though, that Alcantara will start translating his awesome stuff into more frequent strikeouts. The 26-year-old took a notable step in that direction in 2021, deploying more changeups and pushing his chase rate into the 95th percentile. So, watch out.
8. LHP Max Fried, Atlanta
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Though it was Jorge Soler who knocked the Houston Astros down in Game 6 of last year's World Series, it was Max Fried who kept them down.
Atlanta's ace left-hander silenced Houston hitters for no runs over six innings, marking the third time in the last two postseasons that he's pitched at least six shutout frames. That's two more than any other pitcher.
This is obviously Fried at his best, but his baseline performance since 2020 is no less impressive. He's been 58 percent better than average by ERA+, and the 68 OPS+ that hitters have against him ranks behind only four pitchers.
In lieu of strikeouts, Fried more so chases soft contact by mixing up his four-seamer, sinker, curveball and slider and using all four quadrants of the strike zone. He's posted ground-ball rates north of 50 percent in each of the last two seasons, with an overall hard-hit rate that ranks among baseball's best.
Perhaps the lone "yeah...but" with Fried is that he's maxed out at 165.2 innings on two occasions. But even if this makes him a long shot for 200 innings in 2022, Atlanta will have no cause to complain as long as he's healthy come October.
7. RHP Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox
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It was a little over four years ago that the Minnesota Twins ended Lance Lynn's extended stay on the free-agent market by signing him to a one-year contract in the second week of March.
Perhaps because he got such a late start that spring, the 2018 season pretty much ended up being a disaster for Lynn. He handled a respectable 156.2 innings for the Twins and New York Yankees but registered a 4.77 ERA and 89 ERA+.
In three seasons since then, the only pitcher with as much rWAR as Lynn is Jacob deGrom.
There also really isn't another pitcher who operates like Lynn. He only throws fastballs, yet hitters don't know if it's going to be the four-seamer, sinker or cutter. Even when the pitches are on the way, their actual distinction doesn't become apparent until it's too late.
It's little wonder that a relatively small percentage of swings (i.e., 11.1 in 2021) against Lynn produce hard contact. Rather than his pitching style, the only real concern with him is how he's going to hold up in 2022. He is 34 years old, after all, and he didn't make it through 2021 unscathed thanks to knee inflammation.
6. RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians
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Shane Bieber gave himself quite a hard act to follow with his 2020 season, as he won the AL Cy Young Award on the strength of a 1.63 ERA and what's technically the best strikeout-per-nine rate of all time.
A couple of things brought the 26-year-old back to earth in 2021. Above all, a shoulder strain that left him sidelined for three months between June 13 and Sept. 24. He also wasn't quite as unhittable when he was healthy, largely because his four-seam fastball just wasn't beating hitters like it did in 2020:
- 2020: .347 SLG
- 2021: .480 SLG
Part of the problem was that Bieber lost 1.4 mph off his average fastball relative to 2020. One could assume he'll get that velo back if he's healthy in 2022, but perhaps not. Maintaining velocity through a 60-game season is a tad different than maintaining it through a 162-game season.
But if Bieber's ranking here didn't already give it away, we're clearly still high on him as an ace. Because even if his fastball remains hittable, it's his slider and especially his curveball that make him go. It's thanks to those two pitches that only Jacob deGrom has a lower contact rate over the last two seasons.
5. RHP Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Walker Buehler had an odd season in 2021 in that his results were never better, even though his general approach took a turn away from dominance.
Notably, he finished the year with the lowest strikeout-per-nine rate of his five-year career. The trade-offs for that included elevated rates of ground balls and pop-ups, and yet it was apparent even as the season was in progress that his run-prevention gains were unsustainable.
Sure enough, Buehler hit a wall with a 4.83 ERA over his final six regular-season starts and a 4.91 ERA in the postseason. Though not necessarily a sign of struggles to come, it's perhaps a warning of likely regression if he sticks with the same approach in 2022.
What could change things is if he recoups the 1.5 mph he lost on his average fastball from 2020. This might not actually be a fool's hope. Whereas the 27-year-old would have been wise to save his bullets after the shortened 2020 season, he should be built up for a full season coming off 2021.
4. RHP Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
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It's been a weird couple of years for Gerrit Cole with the New York Yankees. He's undeniably been good and yet also somewhat disappointing relative to his $324 million contract.
Naturally, the good must come first. Cole, 31, leads AL hurlers in rWAR over the last two seasons, with a 138 ERA+ and a rate of 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings to boot. He's also walked only 2.1 batters per nine innings, resulting in a 5.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio that only Nathan Eovaldi bested.
The Cy Young Award voters have noticed all this. Cole finished fourth in the voting in 2020 and second to Robbie Ray last year. That makes it four years in a row that he's been a top-five finisher.
As for the bad, well, none of Cole's numbers measure up to his earth-shattering performances with the Houston Astros in 2018 and 2019. He was especially mortal down the stretch of 2021, posting a 4.15 ERA from June onward. A late-season hamstring injury was a factor, to be sure.
Seemingly an even bigger factor, though, was MLB's crackdown on sticky stuff. Cole didn't deny being a proponent of the stuff, and the before and after spin rates on his fastball give a clue as to why. There should be no mistake that this is a hurdle he needs to find a way to overcome in 2022.
3. LHP Robbie Ray, Seattle Mariners
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Behold the rise, fall and rise again of Robbie Ray.
He was a very good pitcher for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2017, leading the NL with 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings and finishing seventh in the Cy Young Award voting. But then came diminishing returns in 2018 and 2019, and an outright disastrous season in 2020 marked by a 6.62 ERA and 7.8 walks per nine innings.
After re-signing with the Toronto Blue Jays, Ray changed everything. Well, maybe not everything, but definitely his mechanics and pitch selection. The former was to be better able to hide the ball and be more direct to home plate. The latter was emphasizing his fastball and slider.
The benefits were plentiful. Ray threw harder, averaging a career-best 94.8 mph on his heater. He also threw more fastballs in the zone, which set hitters up for the slider. When he got them to chase it out of the zone, they managed just five hits while striking out 87 times in 108 at-bats.
Ray continuing his success with the Seattle Mariners obviously hinges on him repeating what worked in 2021 but as well as on staying healthy after pitching 19 more innings than he'd ever had before. If he can do both, there's little reason not to expect more of the same.
2. RHP Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
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Even if Corbin Burnes arguably stole the NL Cy Young Award from Zack Wheeler last season, nobody should be looking at his breakout as a fluke he can't possibly repeat.
For one thing, Burnes' breakout actually began in 2020. After moving into the Milwaukee Brewers rotation on Aug. 18, he made eight starts and put up a 1.65 ERA with 64 strikeouts and 13 walks over 43.2 innings.
We can talk all about the good that's come from Burnes ditching the windup and pitching exclusively from the stretch, but...come on. What more so makes him an interesting pitcher is the stuff he throws at hitters, specifically a cutter and curveball that they simply can't hit.
Though that's largely a function of the disgusting late movement on those two pitches, it's also key that Burnes is deft at working the edges of the strike zone. Among the benefits of that in 2021 were a 98th-percentile chase rate and the lowest out-of-zone contact rate among qualified hurlers.
This is but a small sample of the otherworldly peripheral numbers that Burnes had last season. His 1.99 expected ERA would suggest that he actually underachieved, so really the only thing he needs to prove in 2022 is that he can make the leap to a 200-inning workhorse.
1. RHP Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
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There's obviously at least one reason to be concerned about Jacob deGrom heading into 2022. Well, maybe two if you count last year's elbow injury in tandem with the fact that he's also 33 years old.
Even still, we're talking about a guy whose 205 ERA+ over the last four seasons comes shockingly close to the 219 ERA+ that Pedro Martinez had at the height of his powers between 1997 and 2000.
It sure helps that the only thing in the universe that generates as much heat as deGrom is the literal sun. He averaged 99.3 mph on his fastball in 2021 and hit 100 mph more than Aroldis Chapman.
With heat like this, deGrom is able to avoid contact within the strike zone better than any other pitcher. Yet he's also the best there is at getting hitters to chase outside the zone. That's mostly thanks to his slider, though his fastball shares credit for how well the two pitches mirror each other until the last second.
If his spring training debut is any indication, deGrom might ease up on the heat a little in an effort to increase his durability throughout the 2022 season. But even if that makes him more hittable, he might only regress to his Cy Young-winning form of 2018 and 2019.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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