Biggest Red Flags for Projected Top Picks in 2022 NBA Draft
Even the top NBA prospects have at least one weakness or flaw that can worry lottery teams.
We pointed out the potential problems that could cause each to struggle early or fail to meet the hype. Some are related to physical limitations, while others are tied to certain styles or underdeveloped skills.
After talking with scouts, this group of prospects represents the consensus top 11 picks for 2022.
Paolo Banchero (Duke, PF, Freshman)
1 of 11
Red flag: Style of play, defensive projection for franchise player
Paolo Banchero's highlights show a 250-pound forward who can hit step-back jumpers, shake in the post and play-make for teammates. But there are questions about his style of play and scoring preferences for a player whom offense will run through.
Off the ball, Banchero hesitates to take spot-up threes and lacks a degree of explosion when driving or leaping in traffic. He clearly shines most on the ball, using his skill, strength and IQ.
But Banchero has a catch-and-hold tendency until he figures out which one-on-one move he's going to try. Most are tough pull-ups or fallaways in the mid-range (80 attempts), where he happens to be highly efficient. Is his 47.5 percent clip on two-point jumpers sustainable?
He's at 30.6 percent from three on just 3.3 attempts per game, and the eye test says his stroke isn't mechanically suited for NBA range right now.
Should NBA teams want to feature a big man who loves the mid-range, struggles from three and doesn't project as a plus defensively? His 13.4 rebounding percentage, 2.6 block rate and 1.9 steal rate are low, and there have been too many possessions where his effort and closeouts underwhelm.
Johnny Davis (Wisconsin, SG, Sophomore)
2 of 11
Red flags: Creating separation for a limited three-point shooter
Entering the NCAA tournament off a 3-of-19 effort against Michigan State, Johnny Davis has triggered some red flags over his ability to shake free from defenders and shoot from distance.
Averaging just 3.6 three-point attempts (31.7 percent) in 34.0 minutes, he's clearly not as comfortable from behind the arc yet, making it even more important that he can create space for himself in the high-traffic areas he prefers.
He's taken a whopping 90 jumpers inside 17 feet, making just 31.1 percent of them. On a promising note, he's 23-of-49 on long twos. But the worry with Davis, who isn't shifty off the dribble or explosive off two feet, is that he relies heavily on physicality and contested shot-making in the mid-range.
Given his shot-selection preferences, difficulty against length and shortcomings as a three-point shooter, it wouldn't be surprising if he were inefficient from the field during his first few NBA seasons.
Jalen Duren (Memphis, C, Freshman)
3 of 11
Red flag: Offensive value
Teams considering drafting Jalen Duren will be drawn to the finishing and rim protection that his 6'11", 250-pound frame, 7'5" wingspan and leaping help provide. But if the plan is to build with him as a starting center, his team will have to live with a big who doesn't operate far from the key.
At this stage, he isn't a sharp-enough post scorer to feature one-on-one. And he won't pose a threat to put the ball down or shoot anytime soon based on where his handle (3.6 turnovers per 40 minutes) and touch (62.0 percent FT) currently stand.
Rim-running, finishing centers like Clint Capela can still be valuable. But Duren's team will need a specific supporting cast with which to surround him. And Duren will need to be a star defender and plus rebounder to offset some of his offensive limitations for a 30-minute player.
AJ Griffin (Duke, SF/PF, Freshman)
4 of 11
Red flag: Lack of versatility due to athleticism and feel questions
With a standout 6'6", 222-pound frame and 7'0" wingspan, AJ Griffin has shot up into the top-10 discussion by drilling 46.7 percent of his threes. His statistical profile looks outstanding for an off-ball player, as he ranks in the 93rd percentile out of spot-ups, 99th percentile off screens and 99th percentile off cuts.
But how much on-ball upside does he have as a creator? Does he offer any versatility? Griffin, who averages just 1.7 assists and 2.3 free-throw attempts per 40 minutes, lacks playmaking feel, shiftiness and explosiveness. Despite his strong frame and wingspan, he's not a physical rebounding presence or an active defender, with just 19 steals and 18 blocks all season.
What if Griffin's jumper isn't falling? How else can he impact games? Is he more of a one-dimensional shot-maker, or can he evolve into a two-way, top-three scoring option for a team?
Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga, PF/C, Freshman)
5 of 11
Red flag: Body type, physicality
If Chet Holmgren doesn't go No. 1, it will presumably be because of the lottery winner's fear about his 7'0", 195-pound frame.
The only NBA player 6'11" or taller who's under 200 pounds is Aleksej Pokusevski. Everyone else is at least 215 pounds, which seems like a reasonable target for Holmgren's eventual max weight.
We've seen instances of opposing bigs playing through or moving Holmgren in the paint. He could have trouble establishing offensive position or dealing with the league's bruisers.
The good news: Holmgren operates with extraordinary perimeter skill, mobility and length. But some teams figure to worry about how well he'll separate as a scorer or hold up physically.
Jaden Ivey (Purdue, PG/SG, Sophomore)
6 of 11
Red flag: Mid-range/pull-up scoring for questionable three-point shooter
Jaden Ivey feeds off transition, drives and spot-up threes, which isn't necessarily a negative, especially if he shows this year's long-range shooting improvement is real. But he did only make 23.5 percent of his threes over Purdue's last 13 games after shooting 25.8 percent from three as a freshman.
A lot will be riding on Ivey's development from three, but also his potential to improve his pull-up (29.5 percent) and scoring off the dribble when there isn't a window to the rim. He's made seven of 33 two-point jump shots, although he's shown promising touch on his floater (45.2 percent).
Ivey can disappear for stretches because of a reliance on either catch-and-shoot chances or hard drives to the basket. There have been instances when he'll have space to stop and pop, but he either passes up open mid-range pull-ups or attacks crowded rim traffic.
Bennedict Mathurin (Arizona, SG, Sophomore)
7 of 11
Red flag: Half-court creation
Bennedict Mathurin can carve out a starting NBA role just by tapping into his explosiveness in transition and perimeter shot-making. Through two years at Arizona, however, he still has significant room to grow as a creator.
And a lack of creativity for a guard or wing makes it tough to picture star upside. He's 3-of-13 out of isolation and a combined 8-of-32 on pick-and-roll possessions where he tries to use the dribble into a floater or hard drive.
Mathurin has done a better job getting into his pull-up this year, though he's made just 31.8 percent of them and one of 11 long twos. He's shown some improvement as a playmaker as well (2.6 assists per game), but not enough where teams can expect too much from him as a setup passer.
He'll mostly be used as an open-floor and off-ball weapon at the next level. There is only so much value tied to guards and wings who aren't plus self-creators or playmakers. Plus, Mathurin has proved to be the type of defender who'll regularly lock down opposing scorers or stay consistently engaged.
Keegan Murray (Iowa, PF, Sophomore)
8 of 11
Red flag: Face-up game in half court
Averaging 23.6 points for a No. 5 seed, shooting 62.0 percent inside the arc and 40.5 percent from three, Keegan Murray hasn't given scouts much to nitpick (other than being a 21-year-old sophomore).
If there's a question about his translatability, it revolves around his half-court handle and face-up game. He's scored the majority of his points in transition (187 points), post-ups (137 points), spot-up catch-and-shoot chances (87 points) and off offensive rebounds (86 points).
Off the dribble, he doesn't get low or possess much craft and shiftiness. When run off the three-point line, he's struggled putting the ball on the floor, having only converted 11 of 34 combined attempts on drives, pull-ups and floaters while attacking closeouts.
Murray has executed some impressive isolation scoring plays, shooting step-backs or off the dribble. But it is somewhat tough to picture him blowing by defenders or regularly making those specialty one-on-one jumpers in the half court.
Shaedon Sharpe (Kentucky, SG, Freshman)
9 of 11
Red flag: Limited reps, experience
If Shaedon Sharpe does declare and stay in the 2022 draft, a likely lottery team will have to draft him without having seen him play a live game in over a year.
He won't suit up this season for Kentucky after leaving high school and enrolling early. Scouts may have gotten a chance to evaluate him at Peach Jam last July, but not recently and not in a more structured setting against older opponents.
Teams will have to make major assessments based on one-on-one workouts during the predraft process. And there is a good chance he looks enticing in an empty gym, where his explosiveness and shot-making skill will light up.
But teams will be forced to go in blind in terms of knowing how well Sharpe can make reads and adjustments, or how comfortable he'll look against more mature competition.
Jabari Smith (Auburn, PF, Freshman)
10 of 11
Red flag: Lack of explosion, handle for two-point scoring
Special shooting skill separates Jabari Smith from current and former power forward or center prospects. But he's converting just 44.4 percent of his two-pointers at 6'10". Recent bigs drafted early like Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes, Onyeka Okongwu, Zion Williamson, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Wendell Carter Jr. all finished comfortably over 50 percent inside the arc during their one-and-done college seasons.
While none could play around the perimeter like Smith, he does have ball-handling and athletic limitations for blowing by or finishing through defenders. He can't always create separation on drives. He's made 54.8 percent of his 62 attempts around the basket, compared to Paolo Banchero's 59.1 percent on 137 attempts and Chet Holmgren's 81.9 percent on 83 attempts. He grades in the 32nd percentile in transition and 15th percentile off cuts, a reflection of underwhelming explosion.
The only fear with Smith is that he can be too reliant on three-pointers and tough fallaways, and that for a top pick, he struggles to get himself easier baskets.
TyTy Washington (Kentucky, PG/SG, Freshman)
11 of 11
Red flag: Inefficiency versus quality opponents, creating separation
Despite a well-rounded skill set and solid physical profile, TyTy Washington's lack of shiftiness and burst has scouts wondering how well his scoring and playmaking will translate.
He's been notably less effective against better competition. In eight games facing ranked opponents, Washington has shot just 35.4 percent from the floor, including 3-of-14 versus Duke, 2-of-9 versus LSU, 1-of-9 versus Kansas and 3-of-12 versus Arkansas.
Reliant on jumpers and touch shots, Washington has only converted 20 shots at the rim in the half court all season. He's averaging 2.1 free-throw attempts in 29.1 minutes.
Will he be able to shake free from NBA defenders and create easy scoring chances for himself?
Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports and Sports Reference.
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