2022 NBA Free Agents Most Likely to Change Teams This Offseason

High-profile preseason extensions thinned the 2022 NBA free-agent herd, removing the likes of Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Julius Randle, Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon and many more from the market.

A dearth of cap space around the league, combined with all of those early deals, means the remaining free agents will find it difficult to cash in by leaving their current teams. Incumbent franchises, especially those with Bird rights, will be in unusually strong negotiating positions this offseason.

That said, there are still several situations angling toward a breakup. These 2022 free agents are among the most likely to change teams this offseason.

Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets: Player Option

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

It would be unusual for a player who's logged fewer than 100 total games over the last three seasons to turn down a $36.9 million player option. Financial security is always desirable, only more so for those prone to injury and absence, which diminish earning power.

Then again, Kyrie Irving is an unusual case in several regards. So if anyone's going to punt on that much money to test a relatively bleak market, he seems like a pretty good candidate.

That he marches to the beat of his own drum is only part of the reason Irving profiles as a flight risk. He's also about to turn 30 years old, an age that often represents a player's last chance to grab a multiyear max. Still at the peak of his powers when on the floor, Irving could reasonably expect teams to offer him a full bag if he opts out.

Because so few organizations have the ability to reach max room, a sign-and-trade is one way to plot a route out of town for Irving. That might also be preferable from the Brooklyn Nets' perspective, as moving Irving for some kind of value would be better than losing him for nothing. An opt-in-and-trade might be even more likely, though that wouldn't technically involve Irving hitting free agency. In the interest of completeness, it feels like we should still note that possibility.

Irving is barely going to play for the rest of the regular season and will probably be limited in the playoffs unless COVID-19 vaccine mandates change. That's fine; potential suitors know what kind of player he is.

With averages of 25.9 points, 5.4 assists and 4.6 rebounds on a sterling 47.6/40.8/89.7 shooting split, he'll be in demand. In light of the off-court distractions he brings and his history of general unreliability, the Nets might not be sorry to see him go.

Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers: Restricted

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

The Cleveland Cavaliers' failure to extend Collin Sexton this past offseason doesn't necessarily mean they have no interest in keeping him. Restricted free agency is a powerful tool that affords the incumbent squad match rights. It's a safeguard against paying above-market rates, though it comes with the downside risk of upsetting the free agent in question.

The Cavs may just be taking the dispassionate, shrewd approach to Sexton's free agency. They can do that because they're negotiating from a position of strength. Darius Garland's ascent to All-Star status and the success of twin-tower looks featuring Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley means Garland is no longer a part of the team's core.

Cleveland has done just fine without him and shouldn't be inclined to pay him more than a sixth man's salary.

B/R's Jake Fischer reported Sexton is seeking upward of $20 million per season on his next deal. It would be a surprise to see Cleveland start the bidding anywhere near that number. Sexton could get an offer big enough from a rebuilder with room (think Detroit Pistons or Indiana Pacers) to prevent the Cavs from matching.

Finally, although Sexton is no longer a major priority for the Cavs, we shouldn't take that to mean he's without value. He averaged at least 20.0 points per game and shot over 37.0 percent from deep in each of his last two healthy seasons, 2019-20 and 2020-21. Only 11 other players can claim that, and all of them are stars.

Kyle Anderson, Memphis Grizzlies: Unrestricted

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Everybody likes a good connector, and Kyle Anderson ably fills that role on both ends for the Memphis Grizzlies.

If you need someone to make the right pass or materialize in proper help position on D, Anderson is your guy.

Yet, for a team that has emerged as a contender ahead of schedule, this offseason presents the Grizz with a brief upgrade window—but only if they clear room by renouncing their rights on a handful of free agents. Anderson, Tyus Jones and Jarrett Culver are all unrestricted, with Anderson likely to cost most on a new deal.

We've already hit on how few high-end free agents there are, but the Grizzlies would have an advantage as suitors because they're the only potential cap-space team that isn't also in the rebuilder class. As a small, non-glamorous market, Memphis virtually never has an edge in free agency. This opportunity to play belle of the ball doesn't come along often.

The Grizzlies have solid depth if Anderson doesn't return. Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke, Ziaire Williams and even Dillon Brooks (in a pinch) can handle power forward duties. Deeper down the bench, Santi Aldama, Killian Tillie and Xavier Tillman offer more options.

Anderson, having lost his starting gig this season, hardly seems indispensable.

Memphis could use his roster slot and freed-up cash to take a shot at Miles Bridges or kick the tires on T.J. Warren. Both would up the Grizzlies' 2023 championship equity.  

Mitchell Robinson, New York Knicks: Unrestricted

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

The New York Knicks didn't trade Mitchell Robinson at the February deadline, and according to Marc Berman of the New York Post, "two of the teams who had contacted the Knicks about Robinson got the impression they will lose him if he becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer."

Further casting Robinson's Knicks future into doubt, Adrian Wojnarowski reported on NBA Countdown: "The Knicks can pay Robinson, under the collective bargaining agreement, four years and upward of $48 million before June 30. They've not reached an agreement on that, and it's unclear that they will before free agency when Robinson will be unrestricted."

From those reports, it's fair to conclude that if Robinson were a top priority for the Knicks, something would have happened by now.

It's a tough time to be a non-stretch, non-switch center. Teams just aren't paying big money for them, which means Robinson almost certainly won't get offers close to the four-year, $48 million deal the Knicks could give him. What's more, New York has already committed to Julius Randle, whose sketchy shooting at the 4 puts an even bigger premium on finding a center who can open up the floor.

Robinson is a fantastic shot-blocker and offensive rebounder, and he can be a helpful contributor in a backup role on almost any team. There aren't many players with the length and quickness to get a piece of a Kevin Durant jumper.

He'll command serious interest—if not serious money.

Gary Harris, Orlando Magic: Unrestricted

Scott Audette/Associated Press

Gary Harris wasn't a great bet to remain on the Orlando Magic through the trade deadline, but he's still there playing quietly effective minutes for a team that can't possibly envision him as part of its future.

Harris is only 27, but that's a little long in the tooth for a Magic team that skews much younger. 

It's a good thing for his free-agent value that Harris is putting up double figures while hitting 39.0 percent of his threes. While not performing like the guy who earned an $84 million extension prior to the 2017-18 season, he's exactly the type of solid three-and-D option every good team wants in its rotation.

The Magic, for the uninitiated, are not a good team at the moment.

Harris can expect a handful of teams to consider him with their mid-level exception, potentially making north of $30 million on a three-year contract. The Magic will be among the cap-space leaders and could easily bring Harris back for more than that, but what would be the point?

The 2022-23 backcourt minutes should go to Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, Markelle Fultz and whatever other young talent the Magic bring in.

Harris will be on the move. Sentimentally, a return to the Denver Nuggets and a resumption of his pass-and-cut mind meld with Nikola Jokic feels right.  

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through March 14. Salary info via Spotrac.