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Will the Eastern Conference's Best Team Swipe Another Star?
March 11, 2022
The Miami Heat have done it again.
It's been a quiet surge to the top of the Eastern Conference standings despite a comically long list of injuries and inactive players. But the Heat have risen as they usually do behind another water-to-wine coaching effort from Erik Spoelstra's staff, development success stories from relative unknowns and a next-man-up approach from a rotating cast of young and established stars.
It's a remarkable level of winning considering Miami has over $90 million annually invested in Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry, and yet those three have only played 76 minutes alongside Tyler Herro this season, per NBA.com.
Herro is eligible for a lucrative rookie extension this summer. After a perceived struggle last season, he's flourished both in late-game situations and spearheading Miami's second unit to the tune of 20.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game. He's at times been Miami's clear best player. Then there are skeptics in the league who view Herro as nothing more than a top-tier bench creator and sixth man. But there's enough evidence to suggest the 22-year-old is blossoming into an All-Star-caliber scorer—a potentially costly outcome for Miami's books.
Some rival executives and agents polled by B/R believe Herro's next deal may approach his five-year, $184 million maximum. Others have pointed more toward Jaylen Brown's recent structure of a four-year, $106 million deal. For context, Fred VanVleet and Lonzo Ball's recent four-year, $85 million contracts have set a clear benchmark in the market, where this summer combo guards such as Jalen Brunson and Collin Sexton are said to be seeking salaries north of $20 million.
Miami's postseason will be critical for evaluating Herro and other rotation pieces alongside the Adebayo-Butler-Lowry trio. Herro's extension wouldn't hit the Heat's books until 2023-24, the final year of Lowry's hefty deal, but Miami's creative front office may need careful calculus to bring back both Victor Oladipo, barring a strong return from injury, and restricted free agent Caleb Martin for 2022-23. Both players are known to have strong interest in remaining with the Heat, sources told B/R.
These are good problems for a front office to face, yet some NBA figures familiar with Miami have also suggested Herro could be the odd man out if the Heat see an opportunity to land another superstar alongside their starry veteran trio. Miami has long been mentioned as a hopeful suitor for both Jaylen Brown and Bradley Beal, although each appears situated in Boston and Washington for the foreseeable future.
Miami has clearly come to highly value Herro and was resistant to moving him to Toronto for Lowry last year, sources said. Yet league insiders maintain the Heat would sacrifice Herro's promising ceiling for a chance to land the right superior talent.
"We all know Miami goes big-fish hunting," one general manager told B/R.
The Heat, of course, cleared their decks to land both LeBron James and Chris Bosh in 2010. They scooped Butler via sign-and-trade from Philadelphia in 2019. Before Kawhi Leonard re-signed with the Clippers last summer, the Heat were an often-rumored bogeyman for his next landing spot.
When Miami sent KZ Okpala to Oklahoma City one day prior to the deadline, personnel around the NBA braced for a subsequent move from Pat Riley's front office. Suddenly the Heat freed a 2023 first-round pick as additional ammo, having instead delayed that lottery-protected selection owed to OKC until 2025—which now becomes fully unprotected in 2026. Perhaps that pick can be part of an outgoing package this summer for a franchise that pushes its chips in at the opportune moment.
"They are the best in the league at lining up for a big move," a Western Conference executive added.
If that dream target never materializes, league personnel likewise expect any smaller trade this offseason aimed at further upgrading its championship-caliber roster would likely involve Duncan Robinson.
Miami has hopes of adding a further frontcourt presence alongside Adebayo, sources said, and has shown known interest in Christian Wood and PJ Washington. With the strong play of Gabe Vincent and Max Strus—shooting 38 percent and 40.4 percent from deep, respectively—the league's shrewdest team strategists have come to view Robinson as expendable. Miami already gauged his value with several front offices before the February deadline, sources said, although no talks were considered serious.
Moving Robinson also presents a clear avenue for Miami to once again avoid the luxury tax next season. The Heat have only been taxpayers once since the 2013-14 season, according to salary-cap data provided to B/R. PJ Tucker's $7.4 million player option presents an interesting opportunity for further flexibility. Perhaps Miami could agree to retain Tucker at a smaller annual number but with more remaining years on the agreement.
Whatever opportunities come its way, Miami's organizational stability, from the front office to the coaching staff, has set a high baseline. The Heat's staggering depth may be their biggest weapon against fellow Eastern Conference powers in the playoffs.
"They have plans for every actuality," said one source with knowledge of Miami's thinking. "They're a team that plans for every situation."