UFC 274: Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson: Head-to-Toe Breakdown

Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson is just one of those fights. It seems like a guaranteed thriller. Anything less would frankly be shocking.

The two lightweights, regarded among the best fighters in the history of the division, are slated to collide at UFC 274 on May 7, right before Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje fight for the promotion's lightweight title.

It's a hugely important fight for both men.

Chandler, the former Bellator lightweight champ, is riding a decision loss to Justin Gaethje and a stoppage loss to Charles Oliveira in a failed bid for the lightweight title. A third loss at UFC 274 would send him careening right out of title contention.

Ferguson, the former UFC interim lightweight champion, is on even shakier ground, with losses in his last three fights. For him, the trouble began with a 2020 stoppage loss to Gaethje and continued with a pair of decision losses to Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. If he suffers another defeat, he might lose his spot on the UFC roster.

It's hard to say who will win when Chandler and Ferguson step into the cage at UFC 274, and the early betting lines reflect that. Most sportsbooks have Chandler listed as the favourite, but only by a thin margin. That being said, a closer look at the pair's games reveals some interesting insights as to how their fight might unfold.

Keep scrolling to see how they match up on paper.

Striking

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Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson are both effective strikers, and they should be fairly competitive in this facet of the fight.

Chandler has scored more one-punch knockouts, but Ferguson has actually finished more fights with his striking—14 to his foe's 10. Chandler has a slightly better striking accuracy rate than Ferguson, 49 to 45 percent, but has a worse defense rate: 53 percent compared to Ferguson's 59. Chandler has an obvious advantage in power, but Ferguson compensates for his power deficit by slicing his foes up with elbows and knees. Fighting him is like jumping into a blender full of ninja stars.

There are plenty of reasons to like both of their chances on the feet. 

Still, Chandler should be the more dangerous man in this department, and it really comes down to his incredible speed and athleticism. Ferguson used to be quick and slick, but at 38, and after a long list of punishing wars, he's not moving like he used to. That could be a big problem for him in this fight.

Edge: Chandler

Wrestling

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Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson are both proud wrestlers, having spent the bulk of their lives on the mats. It goes without saying that they're both very good in this department. 

Yet the stats seem to favor Chandler, if only slightly. He has a worse takedown accuracy rate than Ferguson, completing 42 percent of attempts compared to his opponent's 43, but still lands significantly more takedowns per 15 minutes: 2.37 to Ferguson's 0.42. That's a pretty wide gap. He also has the better takedown defense rate, stopping 80 percent of attempts against him compared to his rival's 68. And again, he should be helped by the fact that he's probably going to be the more powerful and athletic man in the Octagon on the night.

The wrestling exchanges should be a lot of fun, packed with big takedowns and wild scrambles, but the three-time Bellator champ should come out on top in most instances. It feels all the more likely after watching Ferguson get out-grappled by Oliveira and Dariush.

Edge: Chandler

Submissions

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Tony Ferguson is among the foremost students of famed jiujitsu coach Eddie Bravo, so it should come as no surprise that he knows his way around a submission. The former interim champ has won nine fights in this fashion, most notably tapping Edson Barboza with a D'arce—probably his best choke—and Kevin Lee with a triangle.

Chandler is no slouch in this area, either. The 35-year-old has won seven fights by submission, most notably against Marcin Held and Eddie Alvarez, and has the narrow advantage over Ferguson for submissions attempted per 15 minutes: 1.42 to 1.12. Any fighter he gets hold of needs to be careful.

This phase of the matchup is made even more interesting by the fact that both guys have flaunted some amazing defensive grappling. Chandler was on point in that department in his losing effort against Oliveira, and Ferguson flaunted rubber limbs in his setbacks against Oliveira and Dariush.

It's another close one, but we'll give the edge to Ferguson because he's won more fights by submission and because jiujitsu has historically been a bigger part of his game.

Edge: Ferguson

X-Factors

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Chandler's X-Factor: Don't Get Complacent 

Michael Chandler is probably feeling pretty good about his durability after surviving a three-round war with lightweight bomber Justin Gaethje in November. He'll probably also take comfort in knowing that Ferguson has never really been a knockout puncher. Still, he can't get complacent in this fight. Ferguson has knocked people out before and nearly stopped Gaethje with an uppercut in 2020. He also has far more weapons than just his hands, most notably his elbows and kicks. If Chandler is reckless—his 53 percent striking defense rate is proof that he sometimes can be—he could find himself in serious danger on the feet. He's been knocked out before. Don't discount the possibility of it happening again at UFC 274.

Ferguson's X-Factor: Fight Smart 

Tony Ferguson was a world-class talent in his heyday, but much of his success depended on his superhuman durability. He could seemingly get hit with a cannonball at point-blank range and keep walking forward. But things change. In 2022, Ferguson can no longer depend on his ridiculous toughness to get him through the fire. As a result, he will need to start fighting smarter—particularly against a knockout threat like Chandler. That means staying focused on defense, even if he has his foe hurt.

Prediction

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On paper, this fight looks like a close one, but it probably won't be.

Ferguson's legacy in the lightweight division cannot be understated, but in the past two years, we've seen him out-struck by Justin Gaethje and out-grappled by Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. Chandler, who is seemingly still in his prime, should be able to replicate either of those game plans and eventually put himself in position to fire some heavy artillery.

Ferguson's immeasurable toughness might carry him through yet another storm, but don't bet on it.

Chandler by TKO, Rd. 2