Alabama and Auburn: A Rumble Of a Rivalry

There are many angles that will be written about for the upcoming game this Friday between Auburn and Alabama. Many will say this is a game where one can throw out The truth is, the only real upsets in this game have been perpetuated by the media. A quick look at statistics will usually predict the game very well. While this remains to be seen this year, I thought a quick comparison would be of interest.

Rushing offense is the specialty of Alabama again this year. They are ranked at a strong 10th place out of 104 NCAA teams in this category. They have three running backs that mirror each other. None of the three are good at cutting back. None of the three have burning speed. None of the three are shifty or illusive. What these three backs do is run straight at the defense and run over them. While Mark Ingram is the lead back this year and a favorite of Heisman Trophy watchers, Trent Richardson might be even better in the second spot. Roy Upchurch is the third back on the depth chart and would start on almost any team but Alabama. They have averaged 225 yards per game rushing and it has not been on the corners. They simply line up and trap the defensive line and run right at the defense. Nothing fancy, nothing new, very effective.

Rushing defense is a weak point for Auburn. They allow 169 yards rushing per game and rank number 88 out of 104 NCAA teams. Auburn has been easily trapped on the defensive line and has allowed big play after big play straight up the hart of the defense. Auburn's offensive tackles have been trapped and pushed around like rag dolls and Auburn's Line Backing corps has been out of position constantly and is too slow to run down the opponent. It has been a sore spot for the Auburn Defense all year.

This is the first and most important comparison. The advantage here clearly goes to Alabama. Look for Alabama to have a big day rushing into the hart of the Auburn Defense.

Passing Offense is not a bright spot in the Alabama scheme. They average 193 yards per game passing and rank 89 out of 104 nationally in this area. They have a great Receiving Corps with extremely effective athletes. They have a very straight forward passing game that shows little imagination and is not that effective. The receivers have been more useful run blocking down field than catching passes. Alabama does not have a really effective quarterback. If give time they can burn a defense cheating up to stop the run and that is about all.

Passing Defense is a strong point for Auburn. They allow 111 yards per game passing and are ranked 26 out of 104 nationally. Auburn has been plagued by injury in this area of the defense. Most of the defensive backs and safeties are freshmen now. The defensive ends have improved and are getting good pressure on the Quarterback. This will be very effective in disrupting Alabama's slow developing passing game.

This is the second and least important comparison. The advantage here clearly goes to Auburn. If Alabama passes the ball it will only be occasionally and only likely then if they are behind or if a receiver is left open when the defense cheats up. This area is not likely to be as important in this game.

Punt and Kick Off return coverage has been dismal for both teams this year. There is very little difference here. Kick Off returns is near even as well and can be called a draw. Punt returns has shown a big advantage to Alabama. Alabama averages 10 more yards per punt returns than Auburn.

Turn over margin is about even. Auburn has a sleight advantage here as many of Alabama's turn over take aways have been to inferior opponents. This is largely due to their defenses success at forcing three and outs on the opponent. They have not faced as many plays from the opposition as many other teams. 

The kicking teams are even in this match up. Both teams have excellent and accurate kickers with excellent range. There is no advantage to either team in this area.

Rushing Offense has been a strong point for Auburn this year. Auburn ranks 11 out of 104 nationally and rushes for 220 yards per game. Auburn uses the most varied approach to rushing in the nation. There is a huge variety of running between the tackles, running around the corners, reverses, draw plays etc... . This approach has proved difficult to defend as long as the Auburn Passing game is effective, otherwise it has been a simple matter to cheat defensive players up on the line and play this offense like an option team. Ontario McCalebb makes this part of the Auburn Offense work. When he is healthy it is difficult at best to stop. 

Rushing Defense is a strong point for Alabama. Alabama is allowing 70.55 yards per game rushing and are ranked 2 out of 104 nationally. Alabama has proven effective against pro style between the tackles running. Their defensive line is strong and will not be pushed around. Their Line Backers are big and physical and stop the gaps well. Their downside is they are a little slower than some. 

Alabama has not faced a rushing offense that had the ability to spread them out in space. Mississippi State was the closest and they lacked the speed to do this. Auburn has played two defenses similar to Alabama. Tennessee and Ole Miss run similar schemes. They are also very overly aggressive defenses. Alabama is stronger than either of these, but Auburn does not play strength to strength. Auburn has had much more problems with fast players in a bend but don't break set up like Georgia, Arkansas, LSU. The complexities of the Alabama defense will actually work against them. I expect them to throw most of that out and play straight up position defense. Complex looks and defensive schemes are to Auburn's advantage. Auburn will move the ball on Alabama with the rushing game. There is no way to know how much until the teams actually take the field. 

Passing Defense is a strong point for the Alabama team. They are allowing only 83 yards per game and are ranked 1 out of 104 nationally. Alabama has a fast defensive backfield that is lights out against a conventional passing attack. They are the strongest team in the country at Nose Guard and Defensive Tackle and will get pressure on the quarterback. This is very effective against conventional passing teams. The pressure on the quarterback becomes palpable within three seconds of the snap. 

Passing Offense is a strength for Auburn. Auburn's passing numbers are misleading. They pass for 222 yards per game and are ranked 54 out of 104 nationally. The misleading part is that Auburn is not a conventional passing attack. The pass is used primarily to get the ball to play makers in space. Auburn takes a few shots down field in every game, but a quick outlet to a play maker is more likely. Many of the yards in Auburns passing game are actually gained on the ground. I expect Auburn to have a few opportunities late in the game to make long passing plays. I also expect Quick outlets to Mario Fannin and Ontario McCalebb to be effective. In the wild cat set up the run will be there all day unless Alabama cheats up. If this happens expect some passes out of the Wild Cat setup for long plays. 

I expect Alabama to play on offense much as they have all year. I do not expect anything new. I do not expect much passing as these would lead to turn overs and sacks. I do not expect Auburn to drive the ball ten or eleven  plays. I don't expect they will need to either. I think Alabama has some edge here, but it is not much of an edge. Auburn will put pressure on McElroy from the Defensive End position and Alabama will start to grind it out on the ground and abandon the pass early. I expect Ontario McCalebb to have a big day and lead the Auburn Offense in production. The key to the game will be Auburn's ability to get some three and outs along the way. If they do this it will be an interesting game, if not it will be a statistical improvement day for Alabama.

It is now the end of the regular season. Everyone is paying attention. Alabama and Florida face of the first week in December in what could arguably be the National Championship Game. You can bet Florida will be watching this Alabama Vs. Auburn game as they prepare for the big showdown. Alabama has looked invincible on defense all year. Auburn is the first team that Alabama has played with a multi faceted offense with speed. The Auburn Offense is simply faster than the Alabama Defense. Florida is much the same. While no one feels  Auburn is too much for Alabama to handle, the match up between the Auburn Offense and Alabama Defense is a first time view into how the SEC Championship might play out. 

 Alabama is a ten point favorite in Vegas and people expect that to go higher. If I were a betting person I would not touch this game. There are absolutely too many unanswered questions. Auburn has been a little unpredictable in the penalty area this year. If they want to put up a good showing in this game they will need to keep penalties down. Auburn has been penalized twice as much when playing speed defenses. LSU, Arkansas used speed to disrupt Auburns offense. Alabama simply does not have that speed. Alabama might result to safety blitzes to make up for this and that will open things up for Auburn. 

It will be an interesting game to watch and will answer many unanswered questions about this Alabama Defense. It will also answer any remaining questions as to how effective the Auburn Offense will be when proper players and talent arrive after this recruiting year.