Early Flight Meter for Top 2022 NBA Free Agents
With the trade deadline behind us, the next big frontier for player movement is this summer's free agency. Sure, the buyout market and this summer's draft will offer opportunities, but things really open up on or around July 1.
You can be sure every front office around the NBA is already working on game plans, targets and contingencies for this offseason. Some have to be worried about stars (or potential stars) taking off. And that's the focus here.
How likely are this summer's top free agents to head elsewhere? Let's dust off the entirely scientific "Flight Meter" to determine who will stay and who will go.
10. Anfernee Simons (Restricted)
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Anfernee Simons has done a number on his free-agency value of late.
Since Damian Lillard left the rotation with an injury, Simons has put up 23.3 points, 6.1 assists and 4.4 threes, while shooting 41.5 percent from three. In the same stretch, he's making 2.0 pull-up triples while shooting 37.3 percent on that specific shot type.
That's wild production from anyone, but it's especially intriguing from a 22-year old.
A player who can create both for himself and others is valuable in today's NBA, and Simons is showing exactly that kind of modern lead guard skill set. Someone other than the Portland Trail Blazers is going to be interested in adding that.
And though restricted free agency affords Portland the opportunity to match any offer sheet Simons signs, it's fair to wonder if the Blazers want to run it back with another undersized backcourt mate.
Lillard made it to a conference finals with CJ McCollum, but the lack of size and defense between those two made it difficult to take them seriously as contenders. Signing Simons as the long-term answer at the 2 would create a lot of the same difficulties.
And if Lillard is on board for a rebuild, he probably wants to see one that's tailored more to his strengths and weaknesses. Ideally, Portland would surround him with bigger, more versatile wings (though that's easier said than done).
Still, the Blazers probably can't just let Simons walk for a couple of reasons. First, and most importantly, he looks really good. And questions of fit aside, talent is talent. Second, it's rarely a great idea to let a free agent walk for nothing.
Even if the pairing with Lillard doesn't really work, Portland could re-sign Simons and trade him some time later.
Flight Meter: Medium
9. Gary Payton II
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You can't judge Gary Payton II on his basic averages of 6.7 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 16.4 minutes. By those marks alone, it would be hard to justify a spot among this summer's top 10 free agents.
He does so much that typical box scores fail to measure. And you can't truly grasp how important those things are without watching Payton play.
He's one of the game's best disruptors on defense, both on and off the ball. He stays in front of guards and wings outside as well as anyone, and very few passing lanes seem safe from his reach and anticipation.
Payton leads the NBA in steal percentage and deflections per minute, and his motor on that end of the floor never seems to sputter.
In terms of impact on point differential, though, he actually does more for the Warriors offense.
Golden State scores 117.5 points per 100 possessions when Payton is on the floor with Stephen Curry, compared to 113.9 when Curry plays without Payton.
The combo guard's ability to find and exploit cutting lanes at seemingly the perfect moment has given him loads of easy shots around the rim. And having an above-average three-point percentage has forced defenses to start paying attention to him outside.
All of the above gives Payton a fill-in-the-gaps game that should be enticing to plenty of teams. And though he's already 29 years old, his hustle and athleticism shouldn't wane much over the course of at least his next contract.
At the same time, the lack of on-ball production could keep Payton's upcoming price range within the limit that the Warriors can offer him.
"Early Bird rights give the Warriors the ability to pay Payton II up to 105 percent of the league's average salary in the 2021-22 season, roughly $10 million this coming offseason," Danny Leroux wrote for The Athletic. "What's more, early Bird rights are a separate exception, so Myers could (at least conceptually) retain Payton II and use some or all of the taxpayer MLE either during the 2022 offseason or even in-season depending on what opportunities present themselves."
Flight Meter: Low
8. Mitchell Robinson
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After four seasons bouncing in and out of the New York Knicks' starting lineup (and seemingly their long-term plans), it's starting to look like the Mitchell Robinson era at Madison Square Garden is about over.
Marc Berman of the New York Post reported on what sounds like an eventual breakup:
"Four teams went after Knicks center Mitchell Robinson at Thursday’s trade deadline, including the Bulls and Pistons, according to an NBA source. Ultimately the Knicks pulled back, didn’t make any trades and now risk losing their longest-tenured player as an unrestricted free agent this July. According to the source, two of the teams who had contacted the Knicks about Robinson got the impression they will lose him if he becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer. The source said the relationship between Robinson and the Knicks currently isn’t on firm ground."
The Knicks still hold something of a home-team advantage if they want to keep Robinson. There isn't much available cap space around the league, and they hold Robinson's Bird rights (which allows them to sign him to an over-the-cap deal).
But the disappointment of this season, as well as the lack of commitment to Robinson from the team thus far, suggests it may not want to break the bank to keep the center in town.
And even though there may not be enough cap space for him to sign a big deal elsewhere, he'd surely have multiple suitors in free agency.
Over his four seasons with the Knicks, Robinson has averaged 13.2 points, 11.6 rebounds and 3.1 blocks per 75 possessions, with a 70.5 true shooting percentage.
Flight Meter: High
7. Jalen Brunson
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Jalen Brunson is in the middle of a two-season breakout that could make him an awful lot of money this offseason. And, according to ESPN's Tim MacMahon, he'd be happy to take it from the Dallas Mavericks.
"This I know: Jalen Brunson's preference would be to stay in Dallas," MacMahon said on The Lowe Post podcast. "He ain't taking a discount to do it. He wants to get paid, period. Preferably in Dallas. I've asked around about that. I feel like I've got very strong information there."
No discount means the Mavs might have to fork over something in the range of $20 million per year, according to Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus, but it may be worth it.
With two capable lead ball-handlers (one of whom is typically a supernova ball-handler), Dallas can cobble together rotations that make it tough on defenses for all 48 minutes.
Over the last two seasons, the Mavericks are...
- plus-2.2 points per 100 possessions when Doncic plays without Brunson;
- plus-3.8 when Brunson plays without Doncic;
- plus-4.5 when Doncic and Brunson play together; and
- minus-5.1 when Doncic and Brunson are both out.
As long as they have at least one of those two on the floor, the Mavs are generally OK. Without both, things get ugly. And, perhaps more importantly, Doncic is better individually when he has Brunson available to share some of the playmaking duties.
This year alone, Luka has averaged 30.2 points per 75 possessions with a 55.9 true shooting percentage when Brunson is on the floor. Those numbers slide to 25.7 points with a 54.1 true shooting percentage when Brunson is off the floor.
Flight Meter: Low
6. Deandre Ayton (Restricted)
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Through little to no fault of his own, Deandre Ayton's free-agent value may have taken a bit of a hit this season.
His numbers are good. In fact, he's averaging a double-double and posting (by far) the best box plus/minus of his career. But the production of his backups suggests point guard Chris Paul may have some responsibility for Ayton's surge.
Here are a handful of numbers from him, JaVale McGee and Bismack Biyombo when CP3 is on the floor:
- Deandre Ayton: 20.8 points per 75 possessions, 65.8 true shooting percentage, plus-7.4 net rating
- JaVale McGee: 22.0 points per 75 possessions, 67.1 true shooting percentage, plus-7.4 net rating
- Bismack Biyombo: 18.7 points per 75 possessions, 62.5 true shooting percentage, plus-17.4 net rating
For an organization that already has over $120 million committed to next season's roster, those marks may lead it to tempt fate. Do we really need to pay Ayton the max if Paul can get this out of anyone?
Assuming the answer to that hypothetical is "no," there will be people clamoring for Ayton. He has become a solid scheme defender, he has embraced a rim-running role that looks a lot different than what he did as a rookie, and he can still punish mismatches when opponents downsize.
Having said all that, and financial constraints aside, the idea of letting the No. 1 pick walk in restricted free agency four years after he was drafted feels far-fetched.
According to Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus, "Many around the league expect the Phoenix Suns to retain [Ayton] despite failing to reach an extension with him before the season."
Flight Meter: Low
5. Miles Bridges (Restricted)
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Having Miles Bridges ahead of Ayton may raise some eyebrows. The latter's 2021-22 numbers beat Bridges' pretty handily in a blind poll, and Ayton is a No. 1 pick who has already made it to the Finals.
However, despite the center renaissance we find ourselves in, versatile, multipositional wings and forwards remain the easier player type to build around. And Bridges is establishing himself as one of the game's better players in this group.
He's averaging 19.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.8 threes, 1.1 steals and 0.9 blocks this season. And that scoring number isn't reliant on the high-end playmaking of All-Star LaMelo Ball. Bridges' mark for points per possession in isolation ranks in the 86th percentile.
The ability to create for himself has elevated Bridges from highlight reel dunker to someone who can be a bona fide second or third option on a good team.
Creating for others is what has really changed his outlook, though. He's averaging a career-high 3.6 assists, and that kind of distribution from a forward makes life easier for everyone else on the floor.
The Charlotte Hornets have to be kicking themselves for not getting an extension done before the season, but restricted free agency keeps them in the driver's seat this summer.
Flight Meter: Low
4. Kyrie Irving (Player Option)
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As was the case for his tenures with both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics, Kyrie Irving's time with the Brooklyn Nets has been marred by chaos.
If that culminated with the departure of James Harden, great. But we've seen team dynamics deteriorate around Irving for years, so it's hard to believe the drama will suddenly cease now.
For most front offices, lack of availability alone might put Irving's return to the team in question.
He'll turn 30 in March. And even if New York relaxes its COVID-19 vaccination mandate, there's no guarantee Irving will be able to give the Brooklyn Nets 60-plus games in 2022-23. Over the last five years, he's averaged 43 appearances per season.
But this isn't the situation most front offices would be in. Kyrie and Kevin Durant were a package deal for the Nets. As Jake Fischer detailed for Bleacher Report, they needed Durant's blessing to trade Harden. Presumably, they'd need the same to move on from Irving.
Flight Meter: Medium
3. Bradley Beal (Player Option)
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From 2018-19 to 2020-21, Bradley Beal averaged 28.7 points and 5.3 assists while shooting 47.2 percent from the field and 35.1 percent from three. He was one of the game's most reliable, high-volume scorers.
In 2021-22, the 28-year-old's production fell off a cliff. He put up 23.2 points while shooting 45.1 percent from the field and 30.0 percent from three. And as the Washington Wizards were free-falling down the Eastern Conference standings, his season came to an injury-induced end after 40 games.
"So here's the question that executives are starting to ask themselves," ESPN's Brian Windhorst said on The Hoop Collective podcast. "Are the Wizards in a position where they want to give Bradley Beal a five-year, $200 million contract?"
We may have already seen the ceiling of a Beal-led team. And it doesn't appear to be that of a title contender. Committing all that time and money to him could lead to another half-decade of mediocrity.
But what's the alternative? A full-scale teardown might be justifiable, but those can be long and painful, particularly for fans. And there's no guarantee that that path would lead to someone as good or better than Beal.
Flight Meter: Medium
2. James Harden (Player Option)
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Shortly after news broke that the Brooklyn Nets had traded James Harden to the Philadelphia 76ers, The Athletic's Shams Charania reported, "As part of deal, new 76ers star James Harden is opting into his $47.3 million player option on contract for next season."
That hasn't happened yet, but Harden himself indicated that was his plan during Tuesday's introductory press conference.
Of course, given all we've seen from Harden over the last few years, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see a clash with superstar Joel Embiid, an opt-out and ensuing free agency. If the Sixers flame out quicker than expected, that wandering eye might return.
For now, though, we'll take Harden at his word. And though he and Embiid are two of the game's most ball-dominant players, it's not hard to see how the duo might thrive. Embiid has never played with a playmaker like Harden. Harden has never played with a post who commands so much attention.
If Philadelphia can find a balance between those two, expect the stars to give this at least two seasons to work.
Flight Meter: Low
1. Zach LaVine
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Putting Zach LaVine ahead of Kyrie, Beal and Harden may feel a bit premature, but he's the youngest of the top four and has been one of the game's most effective scorers for at least two years.
Since the start of the 2020-21 campaign, LaVine has averaged 26.2 points with a 58.1 effective field-goal percentage. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Zion Williamson are the only players who match or exceed both marks over that stretch.
And this season alone, LaVine has shown a willingness and ability to scale his game back a bit to accommodate a co-star. All the questions regarding the fit between he and DeMar DeRozan have been answered emphatically.
And though it'll be expensive to keep those two together, the Chicago Bulls surely won't respond to this season's success by breaking them up.
Flight Meter: Low
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