Fallen Preseason Contenders Still Capable of 2022 March Madness Runs

Preseason polls are the pinnacle of expectations. If your favorite team is included in that initial AP Top 25, that undoubtedly means the assumption is a trip to the NCAA tournament.

To the surprise of zero sports fans, those predictions don't always come true. For a handful of programs, though, the season is more like a roller coaster. Early losses lead to questions, but a late-season surge returns a team to the March Madness picture.

And in mid-February, those delayed rises are starting to appear.

How to define a fallen contender is subjective, but this is our qualification: Any preseason AP Top 25 program that has since dropped 12-plus spots, relative to current KenPom rankings, but is still included on the latest BracketMatrix projections.

Virginia Cavaliers

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Preseason AP Ranking: 25

KenPom Ranking: 78

Hanging on by a thread, these Cavaliers.

If not for Reece Beekman's recent game-winning shot at Duke, Virginia very likely wouldn't be included on any projections. Right now, one—seriously, one—of the 119 current BracketMatrix projections has Tony Bennett's squad in the tournament field.

Holding a 16-10 record, the Hoos are approaching two major opportunities for their postseason hopes.

First, on Feb. 19, they travel to Miami, which is currently on the correct side of the bubble. Then, the Cavaliers host Duke on Feb. 23. Given the locations and caliber of opponents, Virginia could pick up two much-needed Quadrant 1 wins.

Barring an ACC tournament title, though, UVA needs a hot regular-season finish to keep this fragile thread intact.

North Carolina Tar Heels

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Preseason AP Ranking: 19

KenPom Ranking: 48

When the Tar Heels dropped consecutive games to Miami and Wake Forest by a combined 50 points, the sky began falling. Could they recover to even crack the NCAA tournament?

Short answer: Yes. Maybe.

The longer story is that everything has been a challenge. Since those nightmare losses, UNC has posted a 6-2 record that includes uncomfortable road victories over Louisville and Clemson—and an ugly 20-point margin at home to archrival Duke, plus a rough loss to Pitt. To date, the Heels are holding a projected No. 11 seed.

Relative to March, the undeniable concern is 18-8 UNC is winless in seven Quadrant 1 chances. But with a one-loss record opposite Quadrants 2-4, the Tar Heels remain in the hunt.

Oregon Ducks

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Preseason AP Ranking: 13

KenPom Ranking: 66

Oregon began the regular season at No. 13, edged up to No. 12 and quickly exited the AP Top 25 for good. Seems like a proper penalty for a 32-point loss to BYU, you know?

It took the Ducks a couple of months to truly regain their footing. They opened the Pac-12 campaign with losses to Arizona State and Stanford, stumbling to a 6-6 record that also included a 29-point clobbering at the hands of Houston.

But the transfer-infused roster found its stride in January. During a three-day stretch, Oregon defeated then-top-five opponents UCLA and USC—both on the road.

As a result, the 17-8 Ducks have returned to the bubble thanks to an 11-2 mark since that .500 start.

Oregon, a projected No. 12 seed, remains in a precarious spot. The upcoming window of Arizona, UCLA and USC is a double-edged sword of potential marquee wins and, well, additional losses for a program that can't really afford many more this season.

Memphis Tigers

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Preseason AP Ranking: 12

KenPom Ranking: 36

Remember the "roller coaster" metaphor in the introduction? Memphis' season is the epitome of that.

• Up: A 5-0 start! Down: Four straight losses.
• Up: An upset of then-No. 6 Alabama! Down: Fall at Tulane.
• Up: Three straight wins! Down: Three straight losses.
• Up: Six consecutive wins, and counting!

And so, nobody can quit the 16-8 Tigers. Memphis has risen to the literal cut line of the BracketMatrix bubble, landing 57 projections and lurking as the first team out of the NCAA tournament field.

Memphis' key remaining games are at SMU (Feb. 20) and home to Houston (Mar. 6). Win both matchups, and the Tigers will be feeling much better about the postseason.

Of course, if three roller-coaster months have taught us anything, it's that a wicked turn might be looming. Memphis could drop five straight games, then win the AAC tourney and secure an automatic bid anyway. And none of that would be surprising.

Michigan Wolverines

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Preseason AP Ranking: 6

KenPom Ranking: 37

Easily the most stunning drop of the season, Michigan arrived as a potential top seed in the NCAA tournament. After all, the Wolverines held a No. 1 slot in 2021, returned key players Hunter Dickinson and Eli Brooks, signed the nation's third-best recruiting class and added a coveted transfer in DeVante Jones.

Why expect anything less than excellence?

But the losses piled up quickly, sending the Wolverines to a shocking 7-7 record with four letdowns of 14-plus points.

In mid-January—barely a month ago, relative to this writing—Michigan's tournament hopes were fading fast. However, the Wolverines have since capitalized on a favorable portion of their Big Ten schedule, captured an upset of Purdue and managed a 6-3 record to only trail Memphis as the projected second team out.

The recovery isn't close to complete; Michigan's upcoming seven-game stretch is absolutely brutal. For now, though, the Wolverines are again a threat to snag an NCAA tournament berth.

Recruiting information via 247Sports. Statistics courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.