QB-Needy Teams Should Wait for 2023 Draft, Not Gamble on Round 1 Prospects Now

In B/R's big board ahead of the 2022 NFL draft, there are seven quarterbacks in the top 150. That's exactly as many as there were in 2021.

The big difference?

Last year, four quarterbacks were ranked inside the top 10 and had grades of 8.7 (immediate impact prospect/NFL starter) or higher. Two—Ohio State's Justin Fields and Clemson's Trevor Lawrence—had grades above 90, with All-Pro as a floor and the Hall of Fame as a ceiling.

This year, not a single QB is included among the 10 highest-graded players of this class. B/R scouts' No. 1 QB prospect, Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder, is slotted 17th overall; the next, Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett, doesn't appear on the board until No. 43.

The rest of the quarterbacks who made it into the top 150 players in this year's class rank as follows: Ole Miss' Matt Corral at No. 82, Liberty's Malik Willis at No. 87, North Carolina's Sam Howell at No. 92, Nevada's Carson Strong at No. 93 and Western Kentucky's Bailey Zappe at No. 107.

Moreover, no quarterback in this class earned a grade of 9.0 (top-10 prospect) from B/R NFL Scout Nate Tice. QB1 Ridder grades out at 8.4 (first-year starter/late first or second-rounder). All the other prospects are graded between 7.7 (potential impact player/second-rounder) and 6.8 (potential role player/fourth-rounder). 

All of this is to say there is one prospect in this class—Ridder—who might be considered a future franchise quarterback, with the talent and potential to start his rookie season if he had to. 

Every other quarterback in this class, in all likelihood, is best suited to be an NFL backup.

But because there are so many QB-needy teams in 2022—and so few signal-callers likely to land on the trade market when it comes down to it—these players are going to be drafted higher than they ought to be and have unfair expectations pinned on them as a result. 

We have been living in a golden era of young quarterback prospects.

Five quarterbacks were drafted in the first round in 2021, with three in the first three selections.

Four were drafted in Round 1 in 2020; the No. 1 overall pick, Joe Burrow, is currently preparing to play in Sunday's Super Bowl LVI.

Fourteen other quarterbacks were drafted within the first 10 selections in the five years before that. 

With all that talent pouring out of college football in recent seasons, the well was due to dry up at some point.

That's not to take anything away from this season's QB class before they've even had a chance to prove themselves on the field.

But the many teams that might be considered QB-needy this offseason are in trouble. 

Who are those teams, exactly? Let's go by the current draft order.

The Houston Texans have a more complicated quarterback situation than any other team in the league. Not only will they have only one quarterback who is not Deshaun Watson actively under contract when the new league year begins on March 16 in Davis Mills, but they have to figure out what to do with Watson.

Watson didn't suit up for the entire 2021 season as allegations of sexual misconduct made against him by 22 women are investigated. The ongoing legal process, obviously, also made him untradeable.

Before the legal action against him began, Watson had requested a trade from the team. It seems likely he will not play another down for the Texans, but his presence on the roster hamstrings them from a future decision. Mills may be the QB of the future, but the Texans need a veteran who can push him in training camp or provide roster depth. That makes the free-agency market an obvious choice for Houston.

The two quarterbacks on the New York Jets' roster behind Zach Wilson are set to become free agents in March. The Jets are in a better position than most of the teams on this list in that they have a clear starter Wilson, but they'll still need depth in their QB room.

The Carolina Panthers, meanwhile, don't have a clear path forward at the position.

Cam Newton was cut and then re-signed and is now an impending free agent. Sam Darnold is under contract for one more season, but unless he can blow Carolina away in 2022 with an improvement on his 243-completion, 2,527-yard, nine-touchdown and 13-interception 2021 campaign, he doesn't seem like he possesses the keys to the car.

The Matt Ryan era is almost over for the Atlanta Falcons; he'll become an unrestricted free agent in 2024, but the team has a potential out in 2022, set to save $23.8 million in cap space if they cut or trade him after June 1. A.J. McCarron and Josh Rosen will become free agents in March.

Over in Denver, the only quarterback the Broncos will have under contract when the new league year hits is 2019 second-round pick Drew Lock, whose rookie contract is set to expire in 2023.

Denver just signed Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett this offseason and is a constant rumored trade destination for Aaron Rodgers, but that's no surefire plan; Rodgers could return to the Packers or retire altogether this offseason.

Jimmy Garoppolo and Russell Wilson are also thrown around in trade rumors frequently, but again, that can't be a Plan A for any of these teams.

The other teams that could be considered QB-needy are the Washington Commanders, who have three signal-callers (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Garrett Gilbert and Kyle Allen) set to become free agents, which would leave only Taylor Heinicke under contract, as well as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with Tom Brady at long last announcing his retirement.

Mason Rudolph is the only Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback with an active contract beyond 2022, so they will need depth as well.

Of these teams, some have players who can start in 2022 but need a backup or training-camp competition. Some of those players, like Mills, Wilson and Lock, could be the guy in the future, but this upcoming season is crucial for figuring that out.

On the other hand, the Bucs and possibly the Panthers need to acquire a player who can start games now, and this draft class is not the one for that. Those could be the teams that draft Ridder, the one QB in this class who could be ready to start sometime in his rookie season after sitting for half a year.

But none of the other prospects in this year's class can likely provide immediate help to these clubs.

The teams on this list who are looking for a new prospect to build their offense around, like the Bucs, Panthers and Steelers, need to bide their time until Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud enter the draft in 2023.

But the others who simply need depth should use free agency rather than the draft to bring in the help they need for this upcoming season.

If you were starting an NFL franchise today, you wouldn't be overwhelmed by the options expected to be available: Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Newton, Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston, Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota, Joe Flacco, Mitchell Trubisky.

However, for teams that potentially only need short-term help or training-camp competition for young signal-callers the jury is still out on, more experienced players such as Fitzpatrick or Dalton make sense. Both over 30, they won't break the bank as short-term rentals.

For teams that don't have a potential future franchise cornerstone on the roster, seeing if middle-of-the-road players such as Taylor, Bridgewater, Mariota or Trubisky could have more success in their systems than at their previous stops is a worthwhile exercise that also shouldn't involve multiyear contracts for tens of millions.

None of this is to say one of these teams, or another franchise not mentioned here with an aging starter, won't take a chance on Pickett or Willis if they think they could become a multiyear starter down the road.

But this offseason, teams can use these free-agent veterans for exactly what they are: a one-year bridge until the 2023 draft rolls around.

Active NFL team contracts via Spotrac.