Ranking College Football's 6 Hardest Schedules for 2022 Contenders

The 2022 college football season may be nearly seven months away, but it's never too early to start looking ahead. Last week, we broke down some of the easiest schedules for contenders. This week, we will take a look at which ones have the toughest schedules.

Like last week, we judged the quality of out-of-conference games, including neutral-site games. We also took into account home and away games against divisional conference opponents as well as streaks teams may have against their opponents.

Let's see which contenders could have a tough time making the College Football Playoff.

Note: The American Athletic Conference hasn't released its schedule yet, so Cincinnati and other AAC teams weren't included in these articles.

6. Penn State Nittany Lions

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Penn State had a down year in 2021, finishing 7-6 and dropping five of its last seven games.

Still, as long as head coach James Franklin is in Happy Valley, you can't count the Nittany Lions out of the Big Ten and playoff conversations. Longtime starting quarterback Sean Clifford will be back in 2022, as will leading rusher Keyvone Lee. On defense, returning starters Ji'Ayir Brown and Joey Porter Jr. will be key pieces for the Nittany Lions secondary.

Penn State's 2022 schedule looks difficult. The team opens the season with a road trip to face the Purdue Boilermakers. The rest of its road games are against Auburn, Michigan, Indiana and Rutgers.

Auburn played Penn State in Happy Valley last season, and the Nittany Lions won 28-20. Penn State lost to Michigan at home last year, and it has to travel to face the defending Big Ten champs in 2022. Indiana and Rutgers shouldn't be an issue, but losses against Purdue, Auburn or Michigan might knock the Nittany Lions out of playoff contention early in the season.

Penn State's home schedule includes games against Ohio, Central Michigan, Northwestern, Minnesota, Ohio State, Maryland and Michigan State. The two contests that stand out are against the Buckeyes and Spartans, programs Penn State lost to last season.

Playing at home will help, but PSU hasn't defeated Ohio State since 2016. Michigan State lost the last time it traveled to Happy Valley in 2020, but Sparty has drastically improved since its 2-5 season during Mel Tucker's first year as head coach.

Penn State will be looking to get back into the Big Ten title and playoff conversations, but it will have to navigate a tough early schedule, featuring a conference road game to open the season, an SEC road trip and a road matchup against the defending Big Ten champion in Michigan.

5. BYU Cougars

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Yes, BYU is on this list because the Cougars could be dark horses for the playoff. Though the team hasn't generated much playoff buzz in recent years, it has had back-to-back double-digit win seasons.

In 2022, the Cougars will get back some key players that made them so successful, including quarterback Jaren Hall, leading receiver Puka Nacua and leading tackler Ben Bywater on defense. BYU made it as high as 12th in the CFP rankings last year, and it has an intriguing schedule next season. 

The Cougars will face two teams from the Pac-12, one from the Big 12 and one from the SEC. They also have a neutral-site game against playoff contender and fellow independent Notre Dame.

As for their home schedule, the Cougars will face Baylor, Wyoming, Utah State, Arkansas, East Carolina and Dixie State. Baylor defeated BYU in Waco last season, and a win over the defending Big 12 champ would be huge. BYU and Arkansas have never played each other before, but that should be a good matchup for both teams.

Utah State finished last season 11-3 and won the Mountain West title for the first time. Wyoming and East Carolina both qualified for bowl games last season. And BYU likely won't be favored in all three games against Baylor, Arkansas and Utah, even playing on its home turf.

As for the road games, the Cougars will open against South Florida. They will also face Oregon, Liberty, Boise State and Stanford. They will play Notre Dame at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. BYU lost the last time it played USF on the road in 2019, and it will likely be the underdog against the Pac-12-contending Ducks.

BYU beat Liberty in 2019, their most recent meeting, but the Flames are 26-11 over the last three seasons, including a 15-3 mark at home. Liberty is losing Malik Willis—its starting quarterback over the past two years—via the NFL draft, however. Boise State beat BYU 26-17 last season, and Stanford defeated the Cougars in their only two meetings in 2003 and 2004.     

4. Michigan State Spartans

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Michigan State looked like a playoff contender for most of the 2021 season—until Ohio State trounced it 56-7 in late November. Still, MSU finished 11-2 with a Peach Bowl victory over Pittsburgh.

Sparty will be a Big Ten contender once again. It certainly helps that they will return the likes of quarterback Payton Thorne, 1,000-yard receiver Jayden Reed and secondary stars Xavier Henderson and Ronald Williams. But their schedule looks trickier this time around. The home slate includes games against Western Michigan, Akron, Minnesota, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Rutgers and Indiana.

The last time Michigan State defeated OSU in East Lansing was 1999. The Spartans did beat OSU in 2015—the last win for MSU in the series—in Columbus. Wisconsin also beat MSU the last time it traveled to East Lansing. But since Wisconsin plays in the Big Ten West, MSU doesn't necessarily have to beat the Badgers to win its division.

Speaking of the Big Ten East, the Spartans will play two of their biggest games (Penn State, Michigan) on the road. The game against the Nittany Lions will be the last tilt of the regular season, with the Michigan game coming Oct. 29 following MSU's bye.

Michigan State won both games against these Big Ten East rivals by a combined seven points last season, but it had the benefit of playing at home.

The other road games for MSU include trips to Washington in Week 3, Maryland on Oct. 1 and Illinois on Nov. 5. Washington will mark a big test early in the season, and Illinois has won its last two meetings with the Spartans, in 2016 and 2019.

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys

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Oklahoma State was a goal-line stop away from making it into the playoff last season. Instead, Baylor cut off what could have been a game-winning touchdown.

The Cowboys are among the favorites to contend in the Big 12 and for the playoff. In 2022, Oklahoma State will get quarterback Spencer Sanders back. Sanders capped his season with a record-setting 496 total yards in a Fiesta Bowl win over Notre Dame. He is expected to be one of the bigger names in the 2023 NFL draft. Sanders will also get two valuable receivers, Brennan Presley and Blaine Green, back next season. Defensive linemen Brendon Evers and Brock Martin will also return.

Oklahoma State has a more difficult schedule than it did in 2021, however. The home slate includes games against Central Michigan, Arizona State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State and West Virginia. The Week 2 game against Arizona State is an intriguing out-of-conference matchup after the Sun Devils finished 8-5.

The Pokes should be favored in the rest of their home games, though Texas beat Oklahoma State the last time it traveled to Stillwater, in 2020. And Iowa State beat it 24-21 in Ames last season.

The road schedule is interesting. The Cowboys take trips to Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, Kansas and Oklahoma. TCU has beaten Oklahoma State the last two times the Cowboys have traveled to Fort Worth, in 2018 and 2020.

Oklahoma State beat Baylor in the 2021 regular season but lost to the Bears when it mattered most in the Big 12 title game. Playing Baylor on the road is a big advantage for the Bears. And Oklahoma State's biggest rival, Oklahoma, will get to face the Cowboys on its own turf. The Pokes knocked off the Sooners last season in Stillwater, but they don't play well in Norman. The last time Oklahoma State defeated Oklahoma on the road was 2014, and before that it was 2001.

The Cowboys are on this list because their two most important Big 12 games are on the road.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

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Alabama will be a playoff contender every season as long as Nick Saban is still on the sideline.

The Crimson Tide will get Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young back in 2022 as well as six other starters on offense and most of the defense. That includes the Tide's dominant linebacking corps of Will Anderson Jr., Henry To'oTo'o and Dallas Turner. Rebuilding has never been an issue for Saban, and even with departing receivers John Metchie III and Jameson Williams, the Tide should be in good shape depth-wise.

Unlike in most recent years, Alabama won't open with a neutral-site game in 2022. Instead, the Crimson Tide will host Utah State. In Week 2, Bama gets a tough test in traveling to Austin to face the Texas Longhorns. Though these are two of college football's most storied programs, they have played each other only nine times. Bama won the last matchup—its first victory in the series—at the end of the 2009 season in the BCS National Championship Game, 37-21.

The rest of Alabama's road schedule looks tough, as well. The Tide will face Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Ole Miss. Arkansas hung with Bama in Tuscaloosa last season, Tennessee played a one-score game until the fourth quarter, and LSU fell by just six points. Though Ole Miss lost 42-21 in Tuscaloosa last season, the Rebels had a shootout against the Tide the last time they traveled to Oxford, with Bama winning 63-48.

Alabama's home slate includes games against Louisiana-Monroe, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Austin-Peay and Auburn. The two games that stand out are Texas A&M and Auburn. The Aggies handed Bama its only regular-season loss last season, and Alabama needed four overtimes to beat Auburn. Getting both those games at home is a big plus for Bama.

Still, Alabama still has to get past SEC West opponents that have given them trouble over the last few seasons. The Tide might not be opening with a big neutral-site game, but they have to go on the road to face Texas in a major early test.

1. Baylor Bears

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Baylor had an impressive season last year, winning the Big 12 championship and Sugar Bowl to finish 12-2. The Bears' chances at repeating as conference champions and hopes for a playoff bid look tougher, though, because of a loaded schedule.

Baylor will open with a to-be-determined opponent and then take a road trip to BYU, which finished 10-3 last season and lost just one home game. The Bears' remaining away games won't be much easier. Baylor will face Iowa State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Texas. It will likely need to beat all those teams to win the conference again, but Oklahoma and Texas look like the biggest tests. Still, Baylor hasn't won in Ames since 2016 and hasn't won in Norman since 2014, the same year it last won in Austin.

The Bears' home schedule includes games against Texas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State and TCU. The biggest game is Oklahoma State. The Bears lost to the Pokes on the road last season before beating them in the Big 12 Championship Game. Baylor lost at TCU last season as well.

Baylor will have a good shot to repeat and remain in the playoff conversation, but it needs to win some big road games. The Oklahoma State game will be huge, and the teams could meet once again in the conference championship game. But the Bears have to get past their tough road slate before they look that far ahead.