Sleeper Rankings for the 2022 Men's NCAA Tournament

Although the Final Four usually ends up featuring a few of the nation's top programs, a sleeper team occasionally wakes up and surprises the field.

In 2021, for example, seven of the Sweet 16 qualifiers in the men's NCAA tournament held a No. 6 seed or lower. Three of them advanced to the Elite Eight, and 11th-seeded UCLA even reached the Final Four before falling to Gonzaga at the buzzer.

Looking ahead to the 2022 tourney, we've identified eight programs that appear built for a Sweet 16 run.

Now, each team mentioned has a considerable flaw. That should be self-evident, considering they're not among the five highest seed lines on Bracket Matrix. But if a couple of bounces go their way, these programs could be headed for a decently long stay in March.

8. Iowa Hawkeyes

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

Current Projected Seed: 8

Keegan Murray exists.

He's the main appeal of the 2021-22 Hawkeyes, who have encountered more than a handful of mediocre shooting nights and aren't great defensively. Nevertheless, Iowa has Murray—one of the nation's most prolific scorers at 22.4 points per game—to brace a lineup of streaky perimeter options.

Since the Hawkeyes play an up-tempo style, those defensive issues are especially damaging. They're 1-5 when surrendering 75-plus points, and the one victory was over Alabama State. Not a great trend.

But if Iowa can extract a couple of strong performances from Patrick McCaffery and Jordan Bohanon—particularly the latter—to complement Murray, the Hawkeyes have Sweet 16 upside.

7. San Francisco Dons

Young Kwak/Associated Press

Current Projected Seed: 10

San Francisco hasn't appeared in March Madness since 1998 and hasn't won an NCAA tournament game in 43 years.

Both of those streaks might be ending soon.

The Dons own an 18-5 record in this breakout year. Beyond a 16-point road loss to Gonzaga, they've dropped games to Loyola-Chicago, BYU and Saint Mary's by a combined nine points while picking up quality wins over Davidson, UAB and BYU.

One legitimate blemish is a one-point letdown to Grand Canyon, and the Dons have managed some escapes of their own against Santa Clara and Portland, among others.

Still, there's no denying San Francisco has consistently competed with tournament-caliber teams. Upcoming games with Saint Mary's and Gonzaga will be valuable late-season tests.

6. LSU Tigers

Butch Dill/Associated Press

Current Projected Seed: 6

The short version? LSU needs a healthy Xavier Pinson.

After opening the season 14-1 and only losing at Auburn, the Tigers lost their key passer to a knee injury. Since his first absence at Florida, LSU has posted a 2-6 record with a couple of unsightly letdowns to Ole Miss and Vanderbilt.

The light at the end of the tunnel is Pinson has made a couple of appearances and seems to be nearing a full return. Once he's back, LSU should be closer to its previous form.

Because of this recent skid, however, the Tigers are trending toward a lower seed than once expected, potentially making them a dangerous, under-seeded team.

5. Murray State Racers

Butch Dill/Associated Press

Current Projected Seed: 9

The unknown is part of what makes Murray State so interesting.

So far this season, the Racers are 22-2 with four Quadrant 1 or 2 opponents. Most notably, they overcame a 14-point deficit to clip Memphis and took a 13-point loss at Auburn. Since the latter result, they've pieced together a 12-game winning streak that includes nine margins of 10-plus points.

In short, Murray State has stomped nearly everyone lately. Morehead State and Belmont are the lone above-.500 teams remaining on its regular-season slate, too.

Against this favorable schedule, the Racers rank 10th nationally in points per game (81.3) and 25th in three-point defense (29.5). How effectively that translates to a higher level of competition is a legitimate question, but Murray State is clearly an upset threat.

4. USC Trojans

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Current Projected Seed: 7

If the matchups fall in USC's favor, a second successive Elite Eight charge can absolutely happen for the Trojans.

Armed with the nation's second-best two-point defense and 14th-highest total rebound rate, USC is extremely difficult to beat around the rim. Isaiah Mobley, a potential NBA lottery pick, is the cornerstone of this imposing lineup.

Perimeter-oriented teams, however, can take advantage of a defense that has allowed nine-plus triples in three of its four losses. USC's offense is just 155th nationally from long range, too.

At this point—given that 19-4 USC is very likely NCAA-tournament bound—it's a matter of seeing if Selection Sunday plays to the Trojans' defined strength or weakness.

3. Connecticut Huskies

Derik Hamilton/Associated Press

Current Projected Seed: 6

We're about to learn an awful lot about UConn.

After falling to Creighton and Villanova, the Huskies toppled Marquette on Tuesday. During the last four weeks of the regular season, they travel to Xavier, host Seton Hall, Xavier and Villanova and head to Creighton. They'll be aiming to pad a resume that features a huge victory over Auburn and two against Marquette.

To date, UConn has played similarly to USC. Star shot-blocker Adama Sanogo headlines an elite interior defense (fifth) that has helped the Huskies atone for an inefficient perimeter group. They rank 118th in three-point percentage and 241st on defense.

If evidence mounts the opposite way, it'll be worth reassessing UConn's place as a sleeper candidate. Until then, this defense and the upset of Auburn are rightfully propping the Huskies up.

2. Arkansas Razorbacks

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Current Projected Seed: 8

Arkansas has endured a roller coaster this season. Right now, at least, the Razorbacks are under control.

Following a 9-0 start, they dropped five of the next six contests. They then rattled off eight consecutive wins behind a dramatic surge from the defense. Arkansas ceded a 47.2 field-goal percentage in that six-game stretch but limited its next eight opponents to a 36.6 percent clip.

And on Tuesday, the Hogs earned the highlight of their season with an overtime victory over top-ranked. Auburn.

The best version of Arkansas is fantastic. The worst version lives in the neighborhood of exasperating. Which way the Razorbacks are leaning when March arrives is an important topic to watch, but they're in a fantastic spot early in February.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

Vasha Hunt/Associated Press

Current Projected Seed: 6

Alabama has defeated Gonzaga, Houston and Baylor this season.

Any other questions?

Yes, this is a wildly inconsistent team. Losses to Iona, Missouri and Georgia are ugly, and the Crimson Tide are 14-9. If they squander a couple of late-season games to, say, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, the dreaded bubble could await the Tide.

But, again, look at those victories—plus triumphs over Tennessee and LSU, even along with a close loss to Auburn. Few programs have such an impressive list this season.

Alabama hasn't earned much trust on a game-to-game basis. Still, that ability to play up to the competition is undeniable.

Recruiting information via 247Sports. Statistics courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.