Ranking MLB Players Primed for Home Run Surge in 2022
Home runs have become baseball's offensive focal point in recent years, with the days of manufacturing runs and small ball a thing of the past.
While there is no shortage of established power hitters around MLB, there is always a new crop of sluggers poised to join the ranks of baseball's home run elite.
Guys like Brandon Lowe (39 HR), Tyler O'Neill (34 HR), Ryan Mountcastle (33 HR), Mike Zunino (33 HR), Adolis Garcia (31 HR) and Cedric Mullins (30 HR) all took a significant step forward in terms of power production in 2021. So, who's next?
Here, we've highlighted 10 players who have never reached 20 home runs in a single season but could be poised to take a prominent position on the homer leaderboard in 2022.
Players were selected based on minor league track records, big league production and projected playing time, and they were ranked by my own home run total predictions.
Let's start with some honorable mentions.
Rookie HR Leader Predictions
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We are not including rookies on our list, but here's our best guess at who leads the 2022 rookie class in home runs:
- 1. Spencer Torkelson, DET
- 2. Seth Beer, ARI
- 3. Oneil Cruz, PIT
- 4. Joey Bart, SF
- 5. Josh Jung, TEX
- 6. Keibert Ruiz, WAS
- 7. Bobby Witt Jr., KC
- 8. Adley Rutschman, BAL
- 9. Nick Pratto, KC
- 10. Juan Yepez, STL
Others to watch: Triston Casas (BOS), Nolan Gorman (STL), MJ Melendez (KC), Jose Miranda (MIN), Jeremy Pena (HOU), Bryson Stott (PHI)
Honorable Mentions
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Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins (HR Career High: 18)
With an 18-homer, 23-steal rookie season under his belt, Chisholm has the rare mix of power and speed to develop into a superstar up the middle for a young Marlins team. The next step in his development will be better recognizing breaking pitches after he hit .193 with a .363 slugging percentage against them in 2021.
Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays (HR Career High: 7)
Franco already possesses elite bat-to-ball skills for a player his age, and he figures to be a perennial batting title contender once he settles into life in the big leagues. However, his ultimate power ceiling remains to be seen. MLB.com gave him a 60-grade power tool last year to go along with his 80-grade hit tool, and a spike in his over-the-fence production wouldn't be surprising.
Tyrone Taylor, Milwaukee Brewers (HR Career High: 12)
A second-round pick in 2012, Taylor finally saw his first extended MLB action last season. The 28-year-old posted a 106 OPS+ with 12 home runs in 271 plate appearances. With the universal DH likely coming in 2022, he should be able to find his way into the everyday lineup one way or another for a Brewers team in need of offensive help.
Yoshi Tsutsugo, Pittsburgh Pirates (HR Career High: 8)
A flop in Tampa Bay, Tsutsugo found his way onto the rebuilding Pittsburgh Pirates roster last August, and he posted a 136 OPS+ with eight home runs in 43 games. The 30-year-old hit 255 home runs in 10 seasons in the Japanese League, including a 45-homer season in 2016, so the power potential is there.
10. Harrison Bader, St. Louis Cardinals
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HR Career High: 16
Defense in center field kept Harrison Bader in the St. Louis Cardinals' lineup while he sorted out the offensive side of his game. The team is now poised to reap the rewards of giving him a long leash.
After hitting a combined .210 with an 88 OPS+ in 2019 and 2020, Bader enjoyed a breakout season at the plate last year. The 27-year-old hit .267/.324/.460 and set career highs in doubles (21), home runs (16), RBI (50) and WAR (3.9), doing a good chunk of that damage during the team's late-season hot streak.
In his final 32 games, he hit .333/.368/.613 with 10 doubles, seven home runs and 19 RBI in 117 plate appearances. That could be the launch point for an even bigger year at the plate in 2022.
2022 Home Run Prediction: 25
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9. Chad Pinder, Oakland Athletics
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HR Career High: 15
This is undoubtedly the most outside-the-box selection, but hear me out.
With Mark Canha and Starling Marte both departing in free agency, Chad Pinder appears to have a clear path to regular playing time for the Oakland Athletics in left field after thriving in a super-utility role for the past several years. He hit a modest .243/.300/.411 with six home runs in 233 plate appearances last season, but his batted ball data tells an intriguing story.
Among players with at least 200 plate appearances, he tied for 20th in average exit velocity (92.6 mph) and tied for ninth in hard-hit rate (54.2 percent). To put those numbers into perspective, NL MVP Bryce Harper had a 92.5 mph average exit velocity and a 49.2 percent hard-hit rate.
Don't sleep on Chad Pinder.
2022 Home Run Prediction: 26
8. Frank Schwindel, Chicago Cubs
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HR Career High: 14
Tasked with replacing franchise icon Anthony Rizzo at first base after the Chicago Cubs traded him to the New York Yankees in July, journeyman Frank Schwindel made the most of his first extended opportunity in the big leagues.
The 29-year-old hit a blistering .342/.389/.613 with 13 home runs and 40 RBI in 239 plate appearances after making his Cubs debut on July 30. With four 20-homer seasons during his time in the minors, he has a solid track record of power production.
Schwindel's 86.9 mph average exit velocity is a bit of a red flag regarding his chances of duplicating that performance, but he has a clear path to everyday playing time for a Cubs team in transition. He also has a good enough approach at the plate to be a productive middle-of-the-order bat even with some regression from last year's numbers.
2022 Home Run Prediction: 27
7. Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels
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HR Career High: 4
A five-tool talent who peaked at No. 3 on the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list in 2020, outfielder Jo Adell now finds himself squarely in the category of post-hype sleeper.
The 22-year-old has posted a forgettable .205/.255/.339 line with a 61 OPS+ and 32 percent strikeout rate in 272 plate appearances over the last two seasons, but a strong finish to the 2021 season provides renewed reason for optimism. In his final 16 games, Adell hit .300/.344/.533 with three home runs and 14 RBI, striking out only 11 times in 65 plate appearances while taking over as the team's primary left fielder.
Expect to see an outfield of Mike Trout, Brandon Marsh and Adell for the Los Angeles Angels in 2021, with veteran Justin Upton moving into more of a part-time role.
2022 Home Run Prediction: 28
6. Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners
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HR Career High: 14
On the surface, Jarred Kelenic fell well short of lofty expectations in his rookie season, hitting only .181 with a 72 OPS+ and minus-1.8 WAR in 93 games. However, it would be extremely unwise to write the 22-year-old off as a bust, especially considering the way he finished the season.
With a .248/.331/.524 line and seven home runs in 118 plate appearances over his final 29 games, he looked much more like the player who was expected to make an instant impact after starting the year at No. 4 on the Baseball America Top 100 list.
The Seattle Mariners are a team on the rise, and as they chase their first postseason berth since 2001, Kelenic still has the potential to be a franchise cornerstone.
2022 Home Run Prediction: 29
5. Jesus Sanchez, Miami Marlins
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HR Career High: 14
After going 1-for-25 with 11 strikeouts in his first taste of the majors in 2020, outfielder Jesus Sanchez took a significant step forward last season.
The Miami Marlins acquired Sanchez, a top prospect during his time in the Tampa Bay Rays system, at the 2019 trade deadline in the four-player deal that sent closer Nick Anderson to Tampa Bay. He began the 2020 season at No. 58 on the Baseball America Top 100, but his lackluster debut took some of the shine off his prospect star.
The 24-year-old shuttled between Triple-A and the majors during the first half of the season before finally taking over as Miami's everyday right fielder in mid-August. He finished with a .251/.319/.489 line and 14 home runs in 251 plate appearances.
With a strong 6'3", 222-pound frame and a smooth left-handed swing, Sanchez has only scratched the surface of his power potential.
2022 Home Run Prediction: 30
4. Darin Ruf, San Francisco Giants
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HR Career High: 16
Few players will benefit more from the presumptive addition of a universal DH in 2022 than San Francisco Giants slugger Darin Ruf.
After flaming out with the Philadelphia Phillies, Ruf jumped to the KBO and quickly established himself as one of the league's top sluggers. He averaged 29 home runs and 117 RBI with a .968 OPS in three seasons with the Samsung Lions.
He returned stateside with the Giants in 2020 and quietly had an excellent season in a part-time role last year, posting a 143 OPS+ with 16 home runs and 43 RBI in 312 plate appearances.
The 35-year-old wore out left-handed pitching (140 PA, 1.007 OPS, 9 HR), but he also did plenty of damage against righties (172 PA, .824 OPS, 7 HR). Everyday at-bats in the DH role could mean a run at a 30-homer season.
2022 Home Run Prediction: 32
3. Bobby Bradley, Cleveland Guardians
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HR Career High: 16
It has never been a question of whether Bobby Bradley can hit home runs.
The 6'1", 225-pound slugger launched at least 23 home runs for five straight years in the minors, including a 33-homer season at Triple-A in 2019. All told, he has an .840 OPS with 156 home runs in seven minor league seasons.
The question has been whether he'll make enough consistent contact to be an everyday player.
In his first extended MLB action last year, he hit .208/.294/.445 with 16 home runs in 279 plate appearances and 99 strikeouts for a 35.5 percent strikeout rate.
The 25-year-old is the current favorite for Cleveland's starting first base job. If he holds onto the starting role long enough to tally 500 plate appearances, a 30-homer season seems like a layup.
2022 Home Run Prediction: 34
2. Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox
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HR Career High: 13
Similar to division-rival Byron Buxton, injuries are the only reason why Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert is still even eligible for a spot on this list.
The five-tool phenom played in only 68 games last year while nursing a hip flexor strain, but he made his presence felt in limited action, hitting .338/.378/.567 with 13 home runs in 296 plate appearances while racking up 3.6 WAR.
During his final season in the minors in 2019, he hit .328/.376/.624 with 31 doubles, 11 triples, 32 home runs and 36 steals. A 30/30 season in the big leagues is a realistic possibility once he gets a chance to fully establish himself.
A healthy season should mean big things in 2022.
2022 Home Run Prediction: 35
1. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
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HR Career High: 19
Byron Buxton played only 61 games in 2021, but he made enough of an impact offensively to believe he could be a legitimate AL MVP candidate this year if he stays upright for the entire season.
In 254 plate appearances, he ripped 42 extra-base hits while batting .306/.385/.647 for a 171 OPS+. His 19 home runs put him on pace for roughly a 45-homer season had he managed to tally 600 plate appearances.
The underlying metrics say his power production was the real deal, so it's simply a matter of staying healthy. That's been easier said than done for a player who has suited up for 100 games only once in his seven-year MLB career.
2022 Home Run Prediction: 37
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
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