2021-22 NFL MVP: Updated Predictions and Odds Entering Divisional Round

Alex Ballentine@Ballentine_AlexFeatured ColumnistJanuary 18, 2022

2021-22 NFL MVP: Updated Predictions and Odds Entering Divisional Round

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    Aaron Rodgers hasn't taken a snap in the 2021 postseason, but he most likely already has another MVP award waiting to be handed to him. 

    All MVP voting is completed at the conclusion of the regular season, even if the award isn't announced until the week before the Super Bowl. 

    Heading into the divisional round, the Packers quarterback is the heavy favorite to take home his second consecutive MVP award. 

    That shouldn't come as a shock. Rodgers was once again the most effective quarterback in the NFL and took the Packers to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Let's take a look at the top contenders for the award and make some predictions for the final voting order. 


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    • Aaron Rodgers: -400
    • Tom Brady: +500
    • Joe Burrow: +1000
    • Jonathan Taylor: +1600
    • Cooper Kupp: +2000
    • Josh Allen: +5000
    • Patrick Mahomes: +5000

    Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

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    Regardless of how a voter views the award, Aaron Rodgers is your winner. 

    More often than not, the award goes to the best quarterback on the best team. Rodgers certainly qualifies there. He put up his usual otherworldly numbers while the Packers went 13-3 in his 16 starts on their way to the best record in the NFL.

    Rodgers executed the Packers offense with tactical precision this season. He completed just under 68.9 percent of his passes, went for over 4,000 yards and tossed 37 touchdown passes while throwing just four interceptions. 

    He led the league in touchdown percentage while also leading the league with the lowest interceptions percentage. 

    His efficiency led to a passer rating of 111.9. That outpaced second-place finisher Joe Burrow by 3.6 points. 

    That kind of proficiency combined with elite team results makes him an easy pick to win his fifth career MVP. 

Runner-Up: Tom Brady

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    Rodgers' biggest competition comes from a familiar foe. Brady has three MVP trophies to his name and put up a valiant effort to get a fourth this season. 

    The 44-year-old led the league in passing yards with 5,316 yards, passing touchdowns with 43 and led five game-winning drives

    Some of the advanced stats and analytics actually favor the Bucs quarterback over Rodgers. Pro Football Focus' wins above replacement metric had Brady as the league's MVP. Its analysts have already named the quarterback their MVP. 

    Brady's case is strong, too, but his efficiency compared to Rodgers could be the deciding factor. Brady threw 12 interceptions and completed 67.5 percent of his passes. 

    Whether that's fair based on Brady's higher volume stats is worthy of debate. Ultimately, Brady is likely to fall short in the race this year.  

Third-Place: Cooper Kupp

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    Cooper Kupp's season is Exhibit A in the case that a non-quarterback isn't going to win the MVP anytime soon. 

    LaDainian Tomlinson is the last non-passer to take home the award. The running back scored the trophy in 2006 in a season in which he had 1,815 rushing yards, another 500 in receiving and 31 total touchdowns. In short, a historical season where his team was one of the best in the league. 

    The same could be said for Kupp's season with the Los Angeles Rams, yet a third-place finish is far from guaranteed. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is a legitimate threat to top him as well as the previous two quarterbacks covered. 

    Kupp won the league's triple crown of receiving stats. He led the league in receptions (145), yards (1,947) and touchdowns (16). His production was instrumental in the Rams offense succeeding despite the loss of Robert Woods and Cam Akers while breaking in a new quarterback in Matt Stafford. 

    Kupp is only the fourth player to earn the triple crown since 1970, joining Jerry Rice (1990), Sterling Sharpe (1992) and Steve Smith (2005). 

    That should at least be worthy of finishing third in the MVP voting.


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