Top Takeaways from 2021 MLB Trade and Free-Agent Season So Far
As baseball fans settle in for what could be a weeks- or months-long lockout, there is now ample time to dig deeper into what was a wild month of November on the free-agent and trade markets.
A number of the market's top players signed new deals faster than usual in hopes of finding some certainty in the midst of an uncertain offseason, and that led to a frenzy of activity in the days leading up to the end of the previous CBA and the imminent lockout.
The pitching market moved especially quickly, while several of the marquee shortstops in a loaded class at the position also found new homes, though consensus No. 1 free agent Carlos Correa remains on the market, along with Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, Freddie Freeman, Nick Castellanos, Carlos Rodon and aging stars Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.
Ahead we've highlighted some of the top takeaways from what has happened in free agency and on the trade market thus far, and taken a look ahead to what the market might look like once the lockout is lifted and transactions resume.
Off we go!
The Free-Agent Starting Pitching Market Has Unfolded Quickly
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With Max Scherzer (NYM, 3/$130M), Robbie Ray (SEA, 5/$115M), Kevin Gausman (TOR, 5/$110M) and Marcus Stroman (CHC, 3/$71M) all finding new homes in the offseason's first month, the top tier of the starting pitching market has already evaporated.
That's only the beginning of a long list of pitchers who have signed new deals worth $20 million or more:
- Eduardo Rodriguez (DET, 5/$77M)
- Jon Gray (TEX, 4/$56M)
- Justin Verlander (HOU, 2/$50M)—not yet finalized
- Steven Matz (STL, 4/$44M)
- Anthony DeSclafani (SF, 3/$36M)
- Alex Wood (SF, 2/$25M)
- Noah Syndergaard (LAA, 1/$21M)
- Alex Cobb (SF, 2/$20M)
So what's left for teams looking to add something more than a back-of-the-rotation arm?
Future Hall of Famers Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke and 2021 breakout star Carlos Rodon are the biggest names remaining on the market, while 2021 All-Star Yusei Kikuchi and Danny Duffy are potential rebound candidates after poor second-half showings.
Beyond that, the trade market is going to be the focus for teams looking to bolster the top and even middle of their rotations.
The Going Rate for a Fringe Starter Has Increased
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The days of taking a flier on a starter with a one-year, $1 million deal and hoping he turns into a quality rotation piece appear to be a thing of the past based on the going rate for that type of pitcher so far this offseason.
- James Paxton (BOS, 1/$10M)
- Andrew Heaney (LAD, 1/$8.5M)
- Corey Kluber (TB, 1/$8M)
- Jordan Lyles (BAL, 1/$7M)
- Michael Wacha (BOS, 1/$7M)
- Michael Lorenzen (LAA, 1/$6.75M)
- Dylan Bundy (MIN, 1/$5M)
- Rich Hill (BOS, 1/$5M)
Paxton has pitched just 21.2 innings with a 6.65 ERA the past two seasons while dealing with multiple instances of the scariest of all injuries for a pitcher—a forearm strain—and he got $10 million.
Heaney (129.2 IP, 5.83 ERA), Lyles (180 IP, 5.15 ERA), Wacha (124.2 IP, 5.05 ERA) and Bundy (90.2 IP, 6.06 ERA) all struggled in 2021, yet they had no problem quickly finding an MLB deal worth $5 million or more.
All of that bodes well for Drew Smyly, Carlos Martinez, Michael Pineda, Garrett Richards, Zach Davies, J.A. Happ, Matt Boyd, Martin Perez, Tyler Anderson, Jose Urena and the other middling back-end starters still left on the market.
The Cincinnati Reds Stand to Benefit Most from the Lack of SP Options
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After trading away longtime catcher Tucker Barnhart and then giving away 5.6-WAR pitcher Wade Miley for nothing on the waiver wire, it's clear the Cincinnati Reds have shifted their focus from contending to trimming payroll.
According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Reds have had discussions with multiple teams regarding starting pitchers Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray, and the fast-moving free-agent market means they now have considerable bargaining power.
Demand will always exceed supply for quality starting pitching, and they now have their finger on the pulse of the trade market for teams still looking to bolster their rotation.
Gray will earn a reasonable $10.2 million in the final guaranteed year of his contract in 2022, and he also has a club option worth $12 million for 2023. He took a step backward but still finished with a 4.19 ERA and 155 strikeouts in 135.1 innings.
Castillo struggled early in the 2021 season but finished strong with a 2.73 ERA and 144 strikeouts in 135.1 innings from June 1 through the end of the year. The 28-year-old has a $7.6 million projected salary for 2022 and two years of club control remaining.
Mahle also has two years of control remaining and he's coming off a breakout season during which he went 13-6 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 210 strikeouts in a career-high 180 innings. His team-friendly $5.6 million salary and rising profile make him the least likely to be moved.
Don't be surprised if more than one of these guys is traded—and for a significant return.
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There Is an Early Contender for the Best Under-the-Radar Signing
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An 18th-round pick by the Texas Rangers in 2011, Nick Martinez made his MLB debut in 2014. The right-hander had a forgettable four-year run in the majors, going 17-30 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 415.1 innings before signing with the Nippon Ham Fighters in the Japanese League in 2018.
Now he's back stateside after signing a four-year, $20 million deal with the San Diego Padres.
The 31-year-old is fresh off a dominant 2021 season during which he went 10-5 with a 1.62 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 146 strikeouts in 149.2 innings. He also took a brief break from his Japanese League team to pitch for Team USA in the 2020 Olympics, posting a 1.64 ERA with 16 strikeouts in 11 innings over two starts.
Baseball writer Sung Min Kim noted his fastball velocity has increased from 90.8 mph when he arrived in Japan to 93.8 mph in 2021, and he was up as high as 96.9 mph over the summer. He also highlighted his increased changeup usage and effectiveness as a big reason for his newfound success.
All of that bodes well for his ability to take the improvements he made in Japan and apply them stateside. And for a Padres team that used 15 different starting pitchers in 2021, he has the potential to make a significant impact.
A Universal DH Decision Would Greatly Impact the Free-Agent Market
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The universal DH remains a talking point in the ongoing CBA discussions, and while it's not nearly as pressing an issue as an overhaul of the arbitration system or an expanded postseason format, there is still a reasonable chance we'll see the DH in both leagues in 2022.
Expanding the field of teams in need of another power bat from 15 to 30 would have a significant impact on what's left of the free-agent market.
Notable free agents Nick Castellanos, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Schwarber, Michael Conforto and Jorge Soler all probably fit best used primarily in a DH role, while aging veteran Andrew McCutchen might also benefit from regular rest while seeing less time in the outfield.
A team might be less hesitant to give Anthony Rizzo a multiyear pact knowing he could shift to DH on the back end, while Kyle Seager, Joc Pederson, Dan Vogelbach and future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols could all see an uptick in interest with a universal DH announcement.
Expect those players to be closely monitoring the CBA negotiations with regard to a potential universal DH in 2022 and beyond.
It's Been Mostly Crickets from Baseball's Most Competitive Division
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Four teams won more than 90 games in an ultra-competitive AL East race last year, yet none of those teams has made a decisive push for division supremacy this offseason.
The small-market Tampa Bay Rays have traded away All-Star infielder Joey Wendle while adding starter Corey Kluber and lefty reliever Brooks Raley to the pitching staff.
The Boston Red Sox have addressed their starting rotation with some bargain-bin shopping, signing James Paxton, Rich Hill and Michael Wacha to one-year deals, while also making the head-scratching decision to flip Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr.
The Toronto Blue Jays have locked up Jose Berrios long-term and signed Kevin Gausman to replace Robbie Ray, but they lost Marcus Semien to the Texas Rangers and at this point still look like a worse team than the one that closed out 2021.
The New York Yankees have done...well, nothing. That is unless you consider finally cutting ties with Clint Frazier and Tyler Wade to be something.
Does anyone want to win the AL East enough to make a major splash?
The Carlos Correa Sweepstakes Will Be a Lot of Fun
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There is little question Carlos Correa will be aiming to exceed the 10-year, $325 million contract that fellow shortstop Corey Seager received from the Texas Rangers.
With so many big-market teams in the mix for his services, he should be able to do it.
According to Mark Berman of Fox 26, the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves have all shown some level of interest, along with ongoing interest from his former team, the Houston Astros.
Here's a look at where those teams ranked in roster payroll in 2021:
- LAD: $271.2M, first
- NYY: $205.7M, second
- HOU: $194.5M, fourth
- BOS: $189.5M, sixth
- ATL: $153.1M, 11th
- CHC: $144.6M, 13th
If a bidding war ensues, those are some heavy hitters from a financial standpoint.
The Dodgers, Yankees, Astros and Cubs have fairly obvious holes at shortstop, though all four teams could do some shifting around on the infield to address the position in-house. Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson is a free agent after 2022, while Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts can opt out next winter, so their interest makes sense as well.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, while salary information comes via Spotrac.
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