Ranking Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray and the Ace for Every MLB Playoff Contender
Identifying a team's ace isn't as simple as just looking at who has the best ERA this year.
A staff ace is someone a team can lean on for multiple starts in a best-of-five or best-of-seven series and who can chew up innings while giving his team the best chance to win. There are some great pitchers who don't pitch deep into games or who are thin on experience here in the early stages of their career.
Ahead we set out to rank the ace of each of the 12 teams still in the running for a postseason berth, so step one was identifying each team's ace.
This was not about name recognition or past success. It's simply a rundown of who I would most want to give the ball to right now to start a playoff game, with the rankings based on a mix of overall 2021 stats, recent performance and postseason track record.
Enjoy!
12. Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays
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2021 Stats: 25 GS, 10-6, 3.43 ERA (113 ERA+), 1.27 WHIP, 141 K, 123.1 IP
This is not meant to take anything away from Shane McClanahan, who is having a terrific season, but it does not matter who the ace of the Tampa Bay Ray staff is in October.
All of their starters are going to be on short leashes, openers will be used throughout the playoffs, and relievers will be asked to work multiple innings on a regular basis. That's just how the Rays utilize their pitching staff, and it's going to be all hands on deck throughout October.
McClanahan, 24, has been the team's best pitcher for much of the year, but he has completed six innings just six times, and he has only exceeded 80 pitches in half of his starts. Not what you would typically expect from the de facto ace of a World Series contender.
It wouldn't be surprising to see no Rays starter pitch beyond the fifth inning all postseason.
11. Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners
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2021 Stats: 25 GS, 10-6, 3.96 ERA (104 ERA+), 1.15 WHIP, 108 K, 143.1 IP
Marco Gonzales has been a quietly effective innings-eater atop the Seattle Mariners staff for the past several seasons, and he seemed to take a step forward in 2020 when he logged a 3.10 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 11 starts.
However, it's been a tale of two halves for him in 2021:
- 1st Half: 11 GS, 1-5, 5.88 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 56.2 IP
- 2nd Half: 14 GS, 9-1, 2.66 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 86.2 IP
Luckily, he is peaking at the right time as the Mariners try to chase down their first postseason appearance since 2001, and he has six quality starts in his last seven appearances.
He had quality starts against the Boston Red Sox (6.0 IP, 3 H, 3 ER) and New York Yankees (6.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER) earlier this year, and those are his most likely foes if Seattle can claw its way into the AL Wild Card Game.
10. Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
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2021 Stats: 8 GS, 5-1, 2.90 ERA (163 ERA+), 1.24 WHIP, 45 K, 40.1 IP
After more than a year-and-a-half on the sidelines recovering from Tommy John surgery, Chris Sale finally returned to an MLB mound Aug. 14.
He has been solid since returning, but he's still building back toward being the pitcher he was pre-injury when he was a seven-time All-Star and one of the best in the business.
The 32-year-old has completed six innings just once in eight starts, and his .263 opponents' batting average is well above the .219 career mark he had prior to this year.
Simply put, he's been more hittable while failing to pitch as deep into games as he did in the past.
He can still be overpowering, but the Red Sox are not going to be able to lean on him to chew through innings the way they have in the past. The workhorse role will instead fall to Nathan Eovaldi, though Sale still profiles as the ace of the staff.
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9. Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
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2021 Stats: 30 GS, 11-9, 3.58 ERA (121 ERA+), 1.12 WHIP, 198 K, 173.2 IP
At a quick glance, it would be easy to call Carlos Rodon or Lance Lynn the ace of the Chicago White Sox staff based on their strong overall numbers.
However, it's Lucas Giolito who will be counted on to lead the way in October.
Here's a look at how those three pitchers have performed since the All-Star break:
- Rodon: 9 GS, 1 QS, 2.51 ERA, 43.0 IP
- Lynn: 11 GS, 4 QS, 3.82 ERA, 61.1 IP
- Giolito: 12 GS, 7 QS, 2.71 ERA, 69.2 IP
While Lynn has a 5.91 ERA in his last four starts and Rodon has not pitched beyond the fifth inning since July 18, Giolito has been a steady workhorse, piling up innings and quality starts while pitching at an ace-caliber level.
Regardless of who gets the Game 1 start in the ALDS, expect Giolito to be the one who anchors the staff in October.
8. Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros
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2021 Stats: 28 GS, 13-5, 3.16 ERA (136 ERA+), 1.22 WHIP, 185 K, 162.1 IP
The young trio of Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy have helped the Houston Astros rotation exceed expectations this year, but it's Lance McCullers Jr. who has emerged as the ace of the staff in 2021.
The 27-year-old was an integral part of the team's 2017 World Series run, tallying a save in Game 7 of the ALCS and earning the start in Game 3 and Game 7 of the Fall Classic. He has 14 career playoff appearances under his belt, and experience can't be undervalued.
He had rattled off four straight quality starts in September, logging a 3.00 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 24 innings while limiting opponents to a .188 average and .599 OPS.
Despite the fact that he has issued an AL-leading 76 walks, McCullers has managed to limit damage while pitching his way to the top of a young Houston rotation after signing a five-year, $85 million extension in March.
With Zack Greinke expected to pitch out of the bullpen in October, McCullers becomes that much more important.
7. Kevin Gausman, San Francisco Giants
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2021 Stats: 32 GS, 14-6, 2.87 ERA (142 ERA+), 1.04 WHIP, 222 K, 185.0 IP
After accepting a one-year, $18.9 million qualifying offer during the offseason, Kevin Gausman quickly emerged as the ace of the San Francisco Giants staff while building off a stellar 2020 campaign.
The 30-year-old posted a 1.73 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 18 starts during the first half of the season, earning a spot on the NL All-Star team and entering the break as one of the NL Cy Young front-runners.
Things have not gone as smoothly since the break.
He has a 4.73 ERA and 1.41 WHIP since the start of the second half, and he has just five quality starts in 14 appearances during that stretch.
There's a case to be made that young right-hander Logan Webb is in fact the ace of the San Francisco staff, and he's had superior numbers since the All-Star break, but it's still Gausman who the team will lean on in the ace role in October.
6. Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
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2021 Stats: 30 GS, 16-8, 3.23 ERA (133 ERA+), 1.06 WHIP, 243 K, 181.1 IP
The month of September has not gone smoothly for Gerrit Cole.
The New York Yankees ace was shelled by Cleveland on Sept. 19 (5.2 IP, 10 H, 7 ER) and knocked around by the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday (6.0 IP, 9 H, 5 ER), and he has a 6.15 ERA in his last four starts with a .311 opponents' batting average during that span.
That's enough to knock him out of the top five in these rankings, but he is still one of baseball's bona fide aces with overpowering swing-and-miss stuff and the ability to shut down an opponent every time he takes the ball.
"Physically, I think the velocity is in a good spot," Cole told reporters Wednesday. "Things have rebounded well since a couple of those injury mishaps. I'm in a good enough spot to make enough good pitches. I've just got to make those pitches at the right times."
Even with his recent rough patch, he'll be the guy in the AL Wild Card Game.
5. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
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2021 Stats: 32 GS, 17-7, 3.05 ERA (127 ERA+), 1.06 WHIP, 174 K, 206.1 IP
Still going strong at 40 years old, Adam Wainwright has eclipsed the 200-inning mark for the first time since 2014 while helping lead the St. Louis Cardinals on a hot streak that vaulted them into the second NL wild-card spot.
He has a 2.50 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 15 starts since the All-Star break, and he went 5-1 with a 1.43 ERA in six starts during the month of August.
The Cardinals have already announced that he'll be taking the mound in the NL Wild Card Game, and he'll bring with him a wealth of postseason experience.
In 109 career innings in the playoffs, Wainwright has a 2.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 111 strikeouts while tallying four wins and four saves.
He allowed six hits and two earned runs in 3.1 innings in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres a year ago, but we're seeing vintage Wainwright in 2021.
4. Max Fried, Atlanta Braves
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2021 Stats: 28 GS, 14-7, 3.04 ERA (145 ERA+), 1.09 WHIP, 158 K, 165.2 IP
This might seem a little high for Max Fried, but hear me out.
The Atlanta Braves left-hander leads all qualified starters with a 1.74 ERA in 93 innings since the All-Star break, and he's logged 12 straight quality starts after tossing seven strong innings against the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday.
He threw complete-game shutouts against the Baltimore Orioles (Aug. 20) and San Diego Padres (Sept. 24), and he also gained valuable postseason experience last year when he posted a 3.04 ERA in 23.2 innings spanning four starts to help the Braves reach the NLCS.
"Every time he's out there, he's going deep into ballgames, being very competitive," teammate Austin Riley told reporters. "I feel like he's not wasting any pitches. He's going out there on the attack, and he's just doing an unbelievable job."
Simply put, the 27-year-old is throwing the ball as well as any pitcher in baseball right now.
3. Robbie Ray, Toronto Blue Jays
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2021 Stats: 32 GS, 13-7, 2.84 ERA (154 ERA+), 1.05 WHIP, 248 K, 193.1 IP
Robbie Ray entered play Friday as the AL leader in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, strikeouts and innings pitched in a season that should end in AL Cy Young honors.
It's been a dramatic turnaround for a pitcher who struggled to a 6.62 ERA in 51.2 innings while walking 45 batters at a 7.8 BB/9 clip a year ago.
The left-hander has not allowed more than four earned runs in any start this season, and he has a 2.53 ERA in 92.2 innings since the All-Star break when he was snubbed from the AL roster.
The 29-year-old is thin on postseason experience, with one start and a pair of relief appearances in the playoffs to his credit. That includes three innings of relief in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series against the Tampa Bay Rays a year ago.
He might not have the track record of some of the others on this list, but he's been flat-out dominant all year, and his swing-and-miss stuff gives him the potential to dominate if the Blue Jays can clinch a spot.
2. Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
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2021 Stats: 27 GS, 11-4, 2.29 ERA (185 ERA+), 0.93 WHIP, 230 K, 165.0 IP
The Milwaukee Brewers have a potentially lethal three-headed monster atop their starting rotation, and it's Corbin Burnes who has emerged as the true ace of the staff over the last two months.
Since the start of August, he's gone 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 78 strikeouts in 59 innings while limiting opposing hitters to a .182 average and .466 OPS over nine starts. That includes eight no-hit innings against Cleveland on Sept. 11 when he racked up 14 strikeouts for one of his eight double-digit strikeout games this year.
On top of leading the National League in ERA (2.29) and FIP (1.55), he also tops the leaderboard in home run rate (0.3 HR/9), walk rate (1.8 BB/9) and strikeout rate (12.5 K/9), as he has simply been overpowering all season.
His only previous postseason experience came in 2018 when he was used as a multi-inning reliever out of the bullpen. This time around he'll be asked to lead the staff for a Milwaukee team with legitimate World Series aspirations.
1. Max Scherzer, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2021 Stats: 30 GS, 15-4, 2.46 ERA (164 ERA+), 0.86 WHIP, 236 K, 179.1 IP
A future Hall of Famer and a living legend, Max Scherzer is still at the top of his game.
The 37-year-old has been untouchable since joining the Los Angeles Dodgers at the trade deadline, going 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and an 89-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 68.1 innings.
The San Diego Padres tagged him for 11 hits and six runs (five earned) in 5.1 innings Wednesday, likely costing him a shot at the NL ERA title, but he remains the NL Cy Young front-runner and presumptive NL Wild Card Game starter if the Dodgers are unable to overtake the San Francisco Giants in the NL West.
While Corbin Burnes may have slightly more impressive stats, Scherzer gets the nod for the No. 1 spot thanks to his significant edge in the experience department.
In seven previous trips to the playoffs, Scherzer has gone 7-5 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 137 strikeouts in 112 innings, helping pitch the Washington Nationals to a World Series title in 2019.
One start with the season on the line, Scherzer is who I want on the bump.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs and accurate through Wednesday's games.
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