Liver's 2009 NFL Week 11 Picks

I’m still in disbelief over Sunday night. DISBELIEF . Call it happy disbelief though.

Seeing the great Bill Beliprick make mistake after mistake at the end of the fourth quarter, whether it was poor timeout management or the soon-to-be infamous going for it on fourth and two, was GLORIOUS .

Great call, Belichick. Just goes to show you that sometimes, bad things do happen to assholes.

Way to boost the confidence of your defense too. I’m sure they felt empowered by your lack of faith in them. Even Darth Vader finds your lack of faith disturbing.

Some defensive guru he is. The last three years, his defense has blown it at the most crucial moments, whether it was the 2007 AFC Championship Game or Super Bowl XLII. Couldn’t have happened to a better guy.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 10-5

2009 record against the spread: 91-52-1 (.632)  

Buffalo at Jacksonville (-8 ½)

I think Dick Jauron got off easy. He might have had to stick around for this game and watch Maurice Jones-Drew run all over his team.

Jacksonville can’t afford to blow this if they hope to move up the wild card chain in the AFC. That's a LOT of points to lay on the Jags though.  Pick: Buffalo

Indianapolis at Baltimore (+1 ½)

I must have walked away from that Colts/Pats game at least three times in the second half to smoke a cigarette thinking “It’s over. There’s no way the Colts come back and win. Not unless the Patriots completely melt down and choke it away. And that never happens with the Patriots.”

I guess I forgot the 2007 AFC Championship game and the fact that Peyton Manning has a hard-on for night games.

I’m not quite sure if the better team won, strangely enough. The Colts CLEARLY have secondary issues, as the Patriots offense showed.

Joe Flacco has the ability to expose it. The crowd should be fired up as few if any have forgotten about the Colts leaving Baltimore like thieves in the night. The Colts have to lose some time right? I think the Ravens get the job done here. Pick: Baltimore

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (-6 ½)

Both of these teams come in desperate for a win. The Giants, despite having a bye week, stayed in the NFC East race with both the Eagles and Cowboys losing last week.

Atlanta has been a huge disappointment so far with Matt Ryan having a serious case of the sophomore slump. Michael Turner’s status for this game is very doubtful with a sprained ankle.

That’s a shame for the Falcons, because he had just regained his 2008 form before suffering the injury last weekend. If Ryan can attack a still banged up Giants secondary, the Falcons can hang around but they would have to play error free, something they’ve been unable to do recently.

As bad as the Giants looked before the bye, it’s hard to see them losing a fifth straight game. Whoever loses here can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye. Pick: New York

Washington at Dallas (-11)

I’m going to try and NOT be a knee-jerk Cowboys fan BUT , after the debacle in Lambeau, this game just became a lot more important for Dallas as they begin their Thanksgiving week of two games in five days.

The Redskins raised some eyebrows in beating a fading Broncos team but should expect a better Dallas team then the one that nearly got shut out against Green Bay last Sunday.

The Cowboys suffered some key injuries last week in the loss as right tackle Marc Colombo is likely out for the season and safety Ken Hamlin is out for two to four weeks.

Can Roy Williams be any more useless than what he’s shown so far? He looks like he’s confused every time a ball goes his way. Great trade there, Jerry.

Felix Jones CLEARLY has not recovered from his early season injury and needs to be featured more. Then again, when you rush the ball only 14 times, no running back is going to look good. Another great Jason Garrett moment in the sun.

Cowboys/Redskins may not have the luster it once had, but it’s still one of the great blood hatred rivalries in the NFL.

If the Cowboys can expose the weak offensive line of the Redskins and keep Ladell Betts in check they should have an easy time here. Then again, this is the Dallas Cowboys and nothing is what it seems. Pick: Washington

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (+10)

With Cincinnati in the driver’s seat in the AFC North, the Steelers have to win games like this in order to claim a wild card spot. This shouldn’t be a problem for them, even with Polamalu and his troublesome left knee likely out for this one. Pick: Pittsburgh

Cleveland at Detroit (-3 ½)

If nobody cares or comes to watch, do they still have to play the game? Maybe LeBron could help the Browns out. They couldn’t be any worse. Pick: Detroit

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+11)
I know New Orleans is 9-0 but when you have to struggle the way they did to beat the Rams, something’s amiss.

Yet, they’ve shown that they can screw around for three quarters and still win. Tampa Bay is at least competitive with Josh Freeman in there, which is an improvement for them. Pick: Tampa Bay

San Francisco at Green Bay (-6 ½)

Green Bay is alive for now in the NFC wild card race as their shutdown of the Cowboys offense demonstrated last week.

San Francisco’s unimpressive win last Thursday did nothing to sway my feelings about their offense. If Green Bay can do HALF of what they did to a superior Dallas offense, they could crush the 49ers here.

Then again, San Francisco has a coach who actually inspires his players, unlike Dallas. If they had a consistent pass rush, they could knock Aaron Rodgers around a little.

On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers is so bad at taking unnecessary sacks that even YOU could probably get a piece of him. Pick: Green Bay

Seattle at Minnesota (-10 ½)

You’d think that Minnesota could win this on cruise control, but the Seahawks have shown heart despite their poor record and can put up some points.

This was one of the toughest games to pick this weekend, but I see the Minnesota pass rush just beating the hell out of Matt Hasselbeck.

Then you have the fact that the Minnesota defense is prone to taking fourth quarters off and you could go the other way. Tough decision. Pick: Minnesota

Arizona at St. Louis (+9)

Arizona is on the road, correct? Then they should have no problem here, right? Maybe not as the Rams gave the Saints all they could handle and Steven Jackson is admirably giving it his all despite his efforts being wasted on a bad team.

St. Louis isn't the sorry piece of shit we saw earlier in the year. They're still a bad team but at least they've shown signs of improving. Pick: St. Louis

San Diego at Denver (+3)

What a difference a month makes. Denver was on top of the world and San Diego was crumbling. You can reverse that now.

Granted, the Chargers haven’t been exactly beating what anyone would call great teams but they’re winning and that offense is nearly impossible to stop through the air.

Didn’t think this Broncos team would fade like last year’s, but it’s happening and San Diego can take control of the AFC West with the win here.

If the Chargers can run the ball, they can take advantage of a sagging Broncos run defense that has given up at least 120 yards on the ground in each of their three losses coming into this game.

Kyle Orton’s status is still questionable, which means that Chris Simms would be starting if he can’t go. Simply put, if Chris Simms starts for Denver, the Chargers have already won.

That's coming from a Longhorn who's seen what Chris Simms does to important football games up close.  Pick: San Diego

Cincinnati at Oakland (+9 ½)

Mark it down; the Bengals are for real in the AFC. I thought they’d be in the game but I didn’t think they could shut down the Steelers in the red zone like they did.

The question is: can they avoid the classic let down game here against a clearly inferior opponent? That win over the Steelers was the biggest win that franchise has had in years. It’s natural to take a team like the Raiders for granted.

You would think if that defense could put pressure on Big Ben last week, they should be able to destroy Bruce Gradkowski who’ll be starting for Oakland.

With Cedric Benson and his injured hip flexor doubtful, I wonder how well the Bengals will be able to run the ball, which has been the key ingredient to their offensive success.

I don’t think Oakland wins, but for some reason I see them hanging around.  This was the other tough game of the week for me to pick. Pick: Oakland

N.Y. Jets at New England (-10 ½)

I’m sure the Jets wished the Patriots had salted that game away last Sunday night because they’re going to get a SUPREMELY PISSED OFF Patriots team not only looking to wash away that loss to the Colts but to avenge the earlier loss to the Jets way back in Week 2 when the Jets and Rex Ryan were puffing out their chests.

If the Patriots were laying 20 here, I’d take it. Maybe that hot dog Sanchez ate at Oakland four weeks ago took away his Sanchize powers.

Look for Rex Ryan to REALLY cry on the sideline as this game progresses. I see a Belichick run-up-the-score special here. Pick: New England

Philadelphia at Chicago (+3)

Another game with two disappointing teams needing a win. Jay Cutler is so much fun to hate, it’s almost unfair. I’m sure most of teammates echo that hatred right now.

Next to Mike Vick’s return, has there been a bigger bag of nothing then Jay Cutler and the Bears this season? Jake Delhomme LAUGHS at Jay Cutler. Look for the Chicago fans to be booing early and often in this game.

Last week might have marked the end of Brian Westbrook’s career. If he cares about functioning properly later in life, he’ll retire. The Eagles have to find their running game without him. Pick: Filthy

Monday, Nov. 23

Tennessee at Houston (-4 ½)
As a Longhorn, I couldn't be happier for Vince Young right now. The Titans look like a completely different team and they’re 3-0 with him starting after the 0-6 start with Kerry Collins.

That should take care of the “Should the Titans resign him in the off season?” question. That being said, this is going to be a tough one for them, especially the secondary, as they go up against a rested Texans team that just scores points.

Then again, the Texans will have a hard time slowing down Chris Johnson. Tennessee is 5-2 at Houston and this game might feature another hand gesture to the Houston fans by one-time Houston Oilers owner Bud Adams. Pick: Tennessee