Pat Day Stakes 2021: Post Time, Odds, Predictions for Entire Field

Alex Ballentine@Ballentine_AlexFeatured ColumnistApril 29, 2021

Pat Day Stakes 2021: Post Time, Odds, Predictions for Entire Field

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    Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

    The 147th running of the Kentucky Derby isn't the only race for big prize money set to take place on Saturday. The Pat Day Stakes is among the biggest races on the undercard and boasts a $500,000 purse. 

    While the main attraction on Saturday will be the Run for the Roses, the Pat Day Stakes is a nice alternative for those who aren't sure their horse is ready for the 20-horse field and 1¼-mile track of the main event. The undercard race is just one mile and features 12 entrants. 

    Given the shorter track, success on Saturday could have the winner's connections thinking about making a run at the Preakness on May 15. 

    Here's a look at the latest odds for the field along with some predictions for who will win, place and show in this Grade 2 race. 

Post Time, Positions and Odds

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    Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

    Post Time: 2:48 p.m. ET

    1. Three Two Zone 30-1

    2. Ultimate Badger 12-1

    3. Jackie's Warrior 3-1

    4. Defunded 6-1

    5. Prevalence 6-1

    6. Starrininmydreams 5-1

    7. Whiskey Double 12-1

    8. Dream Shake 7-2

    9. Sittin On Go 20-1

    10. Dreamer's Disease 20-1

    11. Noble Reflection 15-1

    12. Joe Frazier 12-1

Win: Dream Shake

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    Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

    Kentucky-bred colt Dream Shake is the odds-on favorite to win for a reason. He's only won once in three starts, but compared to several of the entrants in the field, he's faced much better competition. 

    The Exline-Border Racing horse's last appearance was a third-place finish at the Santa Anita Derby (G1) where he finished behind Kentucky Derby contenders Rock Your World and Medina Spirit.

    His other third-place finish came at the San Felipe Stakes (G2) where he was again bested by Medina Spirit and also Life is Good, another undefeated Bob Baffert mount who is being held out of the Kentucky Derby.

    The colt did qualify to be part of the 20-horse Derby field, but his connections preferred to challenge in this race. That decision could pay out quite handsomely as he appears to be a much more talented colt than most in this field. 

Place: Joe Frazier

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    Devid Quinn/Associated Press

    Joe Frazier's (the horse, not the boxer) presence in the Pat Day field demonstrates just how wide the experience gap can be in this race.

    While Dream Shake has attempted to run down some of the top colts in this year's class in multiple graded stakes, Joe Frazier has had just one allowance race since January. 

    Trainer Brad H. Cox has to like what he saw from his colt, though. 

    Joe Frazier outran a field of 11 horses to claim victory in only his second race of the year. A fifth-place finish in an allowance race at Oaklawn Park looked far from spectacular, but a little over two months later, he's winning a race and posting a 99 speed figure

    His finishing speed might not be enough to run down Dream Shake, who has clearly seen off stronger finishers, but it could be enough to make a surprise appearance in the money on Saturday. 

Show: Jackie's Warrior

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    Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

    Jackie's Warrior looked like a star in the making as a two-year-old. The Kentucky-bred horse won four straight races before a disappointing fourth-place finish in the Juvenile Breeders' Cup in November. 

    Steve Asmussen has largely kept the colt out of action as a three-year-old. His lone start came in February at the Southwest Graded Stakes (G3) where he placed third behind Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality and Spielberg. 

    In that race, Jackie's Warrior was the early pacesetter but ran out of gas down the stretch and fell to his final finish of third. 

    With limited runs as a three-year-old, it's hard to tell if his endurance has improved at all or if the mile-long race is the perfect distance to maintain the pace from wire to wire. Until proved otherwise, that remains a flaw that will likely keep him from taking home the grand prize even if he's out front early in the race.