UFC on ESPN 21: Brunson vs. Holland Odds, Schedule, Predictions

A clash of middleweight contenders headlines the UFC on ESPN 21 card from Las Vegas, with Derek Brunson taking on Kevin Holland in the main event.

Kevin Holland continues to fight his way to the top of the rankings. He's looking to build on a win over Jacare Souza in his last fight against a proven commodity in Derek Brunson. Often looked at as a gatekeeper, Brunson is out to prove that he's an actual contender in the weight class.

It's a compelling matchup both stylistically and in the stakes at hand.

The card also features the return of Gregor Gillespie. We haven't seen the lightweight in action since he suffered the first loss of his career at the hands of Kevin Lee in November 2019.

It's an interesting card with some lesser-known names who will be looking to make a statement.

Fight Card, Schedule and Odds

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Main Card (ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET)

• Derek Brunson (+150, bet $100 to win $150) vs. Kevin Holland (-182, bet $100 to win $54.95)
• Gregor Gillespie (-250) vs. Brad Riddell (+200)
• Cheyanne Buys (-375) vs. Montserrat Ruiz (+275)
• Adrian Yanez (-225) vs. Gustavo Lopez (+180)
• Song Kenan (+155) vs. Max Griffin (-200)
• Tai Tuivasa (-360) vs. Harry Hunsucker (+270)

Prelims (ESPN2/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET)

• Marion Reneau (+175) vs. Macy Chiasson (-225)
• Leonardo Santos (+160) vs. Grant Dawson (-200)
• Trevin Giles (+108) vs. Roman Dolidze (-134)
• Montel Jackson (-670) vs. Jesse Strader (+475)
• Bruno Silva (+121) vs. JP Buys (-148)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Brunson vs. Holland

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

At 37 years old, Brunson is short on time to make his mark on the middleweight division. If he can win this fight, he likely sets himself up against a true contender in the division. If he loses, it's likely to cement his status as a gatekeeper while elevating Holland.

The matchup itself is one that has played out in MMA several times over. Brunson is a classic power wrestler. He wants to impose his will, and whether he's forcing his opponent to react to power punching or he's working them against the fence, he wants to come forward.

He isn't all that concerned with finesse or winning the fight on points.

Holland is similar in that way, but he's far more likely to outwork his opponent on the feet. He's the busier striker and employs more distance strikes, utilizing his jab and leg kicks to build his attack.

Neither of these fighters have gone to the championship rounds, so that could be interesting to watch. However, Holland has never seemed especially tired in his few fights that have gotten to the third round.

Brunson has been to the third round in each of the wins in his latest three-fight streak, including a third-round knockout of Edmen Shahbazyen.

He has, however, dealt with durability issues before. He's been knocked out five times in his career, and that could be his undoing against Holland.

Prediction: Holland via third-round TKO.

Gillespie vs. Riddell

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

The co-main event has plenty of interesting subplots tied into a fight that could have implications down the road given the potential of both fighters.

Gregor Gillespie is a tremendous wrestler. Before his loss to Kevin Lee over a year ago, he demolished everyone put in front of him with a smothering top game. That kind of game requires confidence. The question is whether the loss followed by an extended layoff has hurt that confidence.

Brad Riddell has built up an impressive win streak of his own. He doesn't have the mystique of being undefeated, but he's won all three of his UFC fights and owns a 9-1 overall record. His success is largely built on his kickboxing and ability to outpace opponents from range.

That sets up a really interesting matchup with Gillespie, and space will be everything. The fighter who controls where the fight takes place will get their hand raised.

That's an advantage for Gillespie, who will essentially be fighting the same fight he always does. Riddell is the one who will have to adjust as he faces an opponent who doesn't even want to feign interest in striking with him.

Prediction: Gillespie via decision.

Tuivasa vs. Hunsucker

Jim Young/Associated Press

Has Tai Tuivasa fallen well short of the massive expectations that were created when he started his UFC career 3-0? Yes. But that doesn't mean he isn't an incredibly fun personality and fighter to watch.

The man who popularized the "shoey" lost his next three fights after the initial win streak. Then he knocked out the now-retired Stefan Struve to bring his UFC record to 4-3.

The Australian is now relegated to opening minor UFC on ESPN cards, apparently, but he's still one of the most fun draws. He will get UFC newcomer Harry Hunsucker. The 32-year-old made an appearance on Dana White's Contender Series but was knocked out in the first round by Jared Vanderaa, who went on to lose his UFC debut.

Hunsucker isn't the kind of fighter to stretch Tuivasa where he is weak. His questionable grappling is what has put him in trouble in the past. Hunsucker is a classic punching brawler who is going to play Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots.

That's the kind of fight Bam Bam thrives in.

Prediction: Tuivasa via first-round TKO.

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