NCAA Tournament 2021: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams with 1 Month to Go

The 2020-21 regular season feels different. The men's NCAA tournament will have an irregular look too. Here in February, though, the pressure of sitting on the bubble is entirely familiar.

Over the next six weeks, every result will be examined for its potential impact on the 68-team March Madness field.

Wins are always good, but some are vital to a team's tournament resume. Losses are never good, but some don't hurt as much—and others can be crushing and shove a team from a precarious spot on the bubble.

Perception is an ever-changing component of the season, so every up, down or neutral label may be different next week. Nevertheless, with six weeks to play, the following teams are among the most notable movers who are battling for at-large bids.

Stock Up: San Diego State Aztecs

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Consecutive losses to Utah State in mid-January pushed San Diego State to the edge, but the Aztecs have bounced back and benefited from chaos elsewhere on the bubble.

Recently, SDSU notched four wins of 27-plus points over Air Force and Wyoming. Those Quadrant 4 games don't have much impact, but they suggest the Aztecs are capable of blitzing San Jose State and Fresno State in the next couple of weeks.

Plus, bubble teams Duke, Michigan State, Seton Hall and others have picked up bad losses or missed chances at a marquee win.

The 13-4 Aztecs are safely in the field. That narrative will change if SJSU or Fresno State picks them off, though.

Stock Down: BYU Cougars

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BYU has dropped from "relatively safe" to "real danger."

En route to a 12-3 record, the Cougars beat Utah State, San Diego State and Saint Mary's while only losing to USC, Boise State and Gonzaga—all Quadrant 1 games.

However, the final week of January included a disastrous Q-3 loss to Pepperdine and a double-overtime escape at home to Pacific. Those two results have substantially reduced BYU's margin for error, and the West Coast Conference doesn't offer many respected wins outside of Gonzaga and Saint Mary's.

If the Cougars cannot avoid another Q-3 loss, their NCAA chances may hinge on upsetting Gonzaga to win the conference tournament. That's not something BYU wants to confront.

Neutral: Syracuse Orange

Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

Syracuse is desperate for a Quadrant 1 victory, but the ACC isn't providing as many of those opportunities as usual. And when the Orange have played Q-1 teams, they've lost.

Not a great combination!

On the bright side, Syracuse's only semi-bad losses are to 8-5 Pitt. Additionally, they picked up a quality win over Virginia Tech that may flirt with Q-1 territory.

Syracuse has the foundation of an acceptable resume, but picking up a few wins against Louisville, Clemson and North Carolina will be necessary down the stretch.

Stock Up: St. Bonaventure Bonnies

To paraphrase Dory from Finding Nemo: Just keep winning.

Since falling to Rhode Island at the end of December, St. Bonaventure has navigated a few COVID-19-related postponements, cancellations and changes but kept on winning. The Bonnies are carrying a seven-game streak into February.

Granted, one adjustment meant missing a key matchup with Davidson. If the teams are unable to reschedule, the upcoming trip to Saint Louis might be St. Bonaventure's final Quadrant I game—at least until the Atlantic 10 Tournament in March.

Until then, however, just keep winning. Do that, and the Bonnies will remain on the preferred side of the bubble.

Stock Down: Michigan State Spartans

John Peterson/Associated Press

Michigan State has reached "panic" territory.

After a 6-0 start, the Spartans lost to Northwestern, Wisconsin and Minnesota. They recovered to knock off Nebraska and Rutgers but have since coughed up a 17-point lead against Purdue, lost to Rutgers 67-37 and fallen to Ohio State by 17.

And then Tuesday, MSU narrowly missed a chance to kick-start a surge with a loss to Iowa.

Yes, the Spartans have plenty of opportunities for resume-building wins. However, the recent performances haven't sparked much confidence in their ability to navigate a stacked Big Ten.

Neutral: Colorado State Rams

Isaac Brekken/Associated Press

Colorado State has positioned itself nicely, but the Mountain West program is standing on a slippery perch.

In conference play, the Rams have split matchups with San Diego State, Utah State and Boise State. Their only remaining loss—though a blowout—happened against Q-1 Saint Mary's. This is practically a best-case scenario for CSU.

The challenge is what comes next.

While the Rams have nine remaining games, only Nevada offers even borderline Q-2 wins. Colorado State has exclusively reached "bad loss" territory on the schedule, and nothing until the conference tournament can atone for one of those.

Colorado State is OK for now. Any loss would reshape that perspective.

Stock Up: Loyola-Chicago Ramblers

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Similar to St. Bonaventure, Loyola hasn't provided a reason to get moved in the opposite direction.

The Ramblers have an eight-game winning streak and 15-3 record. January wins over Indiana State and Missouri State aren't glamorous, but they've boosted a resume that has no glaring setbacks. Loyola is 12-0 in Q-3 and Q-4 games.

As long as Loyola beats Evansville twice, the Feb. 13 and 14 showdowns with Drake will be enormous for both teams. If the Ramblers split those games, that's a positive result.

Stock Down: Duke Blue Devils

Marta Lavandier/Associated Press

When the Blue Devils knocked off Georgia Tech and Clemson to end January, they notched a couple of quality wins. While not remarkable results, the solid victories halted a three-game skid.

But then, Miami happened.

Duke could not survive an injury-plagued Hurricanes roster, falling 77-75 on the road. The loss both dropped the Blue Devils to 7-6 and handed them a second Q-3 loss, which is a major problem for a team that lacks a marquee win.

Again, the Georgia Tech and Clemson victories are fine. Duke, however, is 0-3 against Q-1 competition and running thin on opportunities to change that in a down ACC.

From now through March 6, the Blue Devils play North Carolina twice and both Virginia and Louisville once. Duke must finish 2-2 or better in those matchups and avoid bad losses elsewhere. Otherwise, the Blue Devils won't even be on the bubble.