Super Bowl Odds 2021: Money Line, Over/Under, Latest Chiefs vs. Bucs Spread

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistFebruary 2, 2021

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes celebrates after throwing a 5-yard touchdown pass to tight end Travis Kelce during the second half of the AFC championship NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

The betting lines for Super Bowl 55 have not changed much since they were released at the conclusion of conference championship weekend. 

The spread in favor of the Kansas City Chiefs has fluctuated between 3.0 and 3.5 points, while the over/under settled in at 56. 

There could be some line movement closer to kickoff, but it seems unlikely that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will overtake the Chiefs on the betting line.

Of course, that allows bettors to find value in a Tom Brady-led team in a Super Bowl, which typically has not been the case in his previous nine trips to the Super Bowl. 

However, the likelihood of Sunday's final margin of victory being as low as the current spread is small. Only one of the last 10 Super Bowls was decided by three points. 


Super Bowl Odds

Spread: Kansas City (-3)

Over/Under: 56

Money Line: Kansas City (-167; bet $167 to win $100); Tampa Bay (+148; bet $100 to win $148)

The Super Bowl 55 spread is the same number that Kansas City defeated Tampa Bay by in Week 12. 

Kansas City's 27-24 triumph at Raymond James Stadium marked the last time the Buccaneers suffered a loss. 

Super Bowl history suggests the margin of victory may not be as close as the first meeting between the eventual AFC and NFC champions. 

Seven of the 54 Super Bowls were decided by three points or less, with the last game from that group coming from Super Bowl 47. 

Brady and the New England Patriots were involved in four of those tight championship games, but they all occurred at the start of their reign. 

Each of the Pats' first three Super Bowl wins over the St. Louis Rams, Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles were by three points. The New York Giants also beat the Patriots by three in Super Bowl 42. 

The last three Super Bowls in which Brady participated in were decided by an average of 6.7 points. 

Kansas City won Super Bowl 54 by 11 points, and only five of its 18 games played this season were decided by three points or less. 

Tampa Bay was also involved in four games that were decided by three points or less, but it fared much worse in those contests. It was 1-3 with losses to the Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams and Chiefs. 

As for the over/under, that may be trickier to figure out than some may think on the surface. Kansas City had eight games that had 56 or more points and Tampa Bay played in seven contests that fit that criteria. 

The good news for over bettors is that a majority of Kansas City's high-scoring games occurred after its Week 10 bye. 

The Chiefs beat the Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game in contests that eclipsed 56 points. The only loss from that group came from Week 17, when the second-string players took on the Los Angeles Chargers. 

Tampa Bay crossed the 30-point threshold in each of its last six victories, but only half of those clashes, including the NFC Championship Game, would have hit the Super Bowl over. 

Taking the over seems like an easy pick since Brady and Mahomes are the Super Bowl quarterbacks, but those numbers may make you think about your decision before finalizing your wager.


Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.

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