Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern WIldcats: A Badger's Take

The last time Wisconsin beat Northwestern in Evanston, it was 1999.

They will try to do it for the first time this decade this coming Saturday.

After an abysmal 7-6 season in 2008, the Wisconsin Badgers have stormed back behind the rushing of John Clay and a revamped, better than expected defense.

This Saturday will decide the Big Ten conference Champion.

With a victory against the Northwestern Wildcats (likely), and an Ohio State loss to Michigan (not likely), the Badgers would be in a three way tie for first place in the conference.

Sophomore tailback John Clay has been the catalyst for the Badgers' resurgence. Clay has averaged 5.2 yards per carry while amassing 1124 yards and reaching the end zone 12 times.

Another point of interest for the Badgers this year is the balanced offense. Most years, the Badgers have not been much of a threat to pass the ball, but this season, behind quarterback Scott Tolzien, who ranks 34th nationally in passing efficiency, the Badgers have scored early, and often.

Wisconsin is second in the conference, scoring 31.1 points per game, behind only Michigan, at 31.3.

Northwestern has improved since early season games against Syracuse and Minnesota, with the offense moving the ball effectively, and he defense starting to clamp down in the last couple of weeks.

Also, Northwestern has found a way to win seven games this year, and is bowl eligible for the second year in a row.

Wisconsin will win if...

• Mistakes are limited  - The Badgers have been turnover and penalty prone at times this season, and Northwestern will look to capitalize on any mistakes.
  
• Toon is involved - Receiver Nick Toon is emerging as a star. His second touchdown catch of the game against Michigan last week was an acrobatic, physical play. Should Tolzien find him, he will make plays.
  
• Watt lights up -JJ Watt has been somewhat ignored this season, stuck in the long shadow cast by fellow defensive end, O'Brien Schofield. Watt will have a chance to make plays, as Schofield will be double teamed, and the blocking schemes will slant his way. Watt already has 10.5 TFLs on the year.
  

Northwestern will win if -

• They limit big plays -Wisconsin has big play capability with tight end Garrett Graham and Lance Kendricks, Clay, Nick Toon and Isaac Anderson. And that is only on offense. Defensive end O'Brien Schofield is having a monster year, and Freshman linebacker Chris Borland has been a game changer at times for the Badgers. Northwestern must not let them hit the home run.
  
• They contain Clay -John Clay is a monster, and will punish defenses. He will not be stopped, but if Northwestern can get an early lead and limit his carries, they can contain the damage he will do.
  

• Wootton gets off - Defensive end Corey Wootton has registered at least one sack in each of his last four games, and is very quick into the backfield.

The Badgers have played very solid football recently, but so have the Wildcats. The Badgers will come out trying to establish the run, and will need to score early and keep Clay involved to win.

Northwestern will try to move the ball with veteran quarterback Mike Kafka, and hopes to improve on their bowl prospects with a victory over a BCS top 20 team.

Expect another shootout, with few turnovers, and some hard hitting football.

Prediction - Badgers 31 Wildcats 30