Super Bowl Odds 2021: Vegas Prop Bet and Odds List for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistFebruary 2, 2021

Green Bay Packers' Preston Smith watches as Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady throws a pass during the second half of the NFC championship NFL football game in Green Bay, Wis., Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
Morry Gash/Associated Press

Three of Tom Brady's top seven playoff passing performances occurred at the Super Bowl

In fact, Brady's top two passing-yard totals in the postseason were recorded in two of his last three championship appearances against the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles, respectively. 

When Brady has thrown for more than 300 yards, the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have typically come out on top. He is 13-4 when he hits the 300-yard threshold in the playoffs and 9-1 with 343 yards or more. 

Despite holding a Super Bowl passing average of 315.3 yards, Brady's passing-yard prop for Super Bowl 55 sits under 300. 

Brady's prop is also significantly lower than the one set for Patrick Mahomes, who did not reach the 300-yard mark in his first Super Bowl appearance. 

Most of Mahomes' player props have been set higher than Brady, which aligns with the thought that the Kansas City Chiefs are the favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at Raymond James Stadium.


Super Bowl 55 Odds

Odds via NFL" target="_blank">DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread: Kansas City (-3)

Over/Under: 56.5

Money Line: Kansas City (-162; bet $162 to win $100); Tampa Bay (+143; bet $100 to win $143)

Prop Bets: Full prop bets can be found here.


Top Prop Bets

Tom Brady (Over/Under 295.5 Passing Yards; Over/Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns)

Brady recorded a single 300-yard performance in his three postseason appearances with Tampa Bay. 

However, he did throw for 345 yards in a come-from-behind role in Week 12's loss to the Chiefs on home soil.

That performance started a run of five 300-yard outings in six games. Brady tossed 15 touchdown passes in those five games. 

In his eight 300-yard games for the Bucs, Brady recorded an average of 3.3 touchdown passes. Each of his four highest scoring totals came in 300-yard performances. 

Those totals suggest that Brady's over for passing yards and passing touchdowns could hit simultaneously. 

There is a better price on the passing touchdown prop, which you can bet up to over/under 3.5. That over holds the highest value for Brady at +370. 

But that price may be too high to take since Brady has only thrown four or more touchdown passes in two career playoff games, one of which was the Super Bowl win over the Seattle Seahawks. 

Brady threw for three or more touchdowns in three of his nine Super Bowl appearances, so taking his over 2.5 prop may be a bit of a risky wager since he has two or fewer scoring throws in two-thirds of his title-game appearances. 


Patrick Mahomes (Over/Under 325.5 Passing Yards; Over/Under 28.5 Completions)

The oddsmakers have set some remarkably high odds for Mahomes if you compare the totals to his short playoff history. 

Mahomes' 325 yards in the AFC Championship Game marked his first 300-yard playoff performance. He had 286 yards against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 54. 

While he typically throws at a high rate, Mahomes averaged 23.6 completions on 36 attempts per contest in seven playoff starts. 

If you open up the sample size to the 2020 regular season, Mahomes had seven games with over 326 passing yards and six contests with 29 or more complete passes. 

Another wrinkle to throw into the Mahomes props is the availability of rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who was injured at the back end of the regular season.

In the five games in which Edwards-Helaire recorded 15 or more carries, Mahomes had a single performance with more than 25 complete passes and two with over 380 passing yards. 

If Kansas City relies more on a healthy Edwards-Helaire, the under on Mahomes' completions could be a solid play, and you could make a case to take the under on his passing-yard prop as well.


Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.

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