Burning Questions Amid Nolan Arenado Trade Rumors to Cardinals, Braves
Colorado Rockies legend Todd Helton hoped Nolan Arenado would retire with the team that drafted him. When the eight-time Gold Glover and five-time All-Star signed a record-breaking eight-year, $260 million contract a little less than two years ago, it seemed as though the Rockies were ready to build the club into one that could challenge the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.
"He should be a Rockie for life," Helton told the Denver Post's Patrick Saunders after Arenado signed his contract in February 2019. "He's the best I've ever seen over at third."
His teammate and good friend Charlie Blackmon was thrilled to see Rockies owner Dick Monfort give Arenado a contract like that. In his eyes, it meant the club was ready to get serious about contending for a pennant.
"I'm so proud of Nolan," Blackmon told the Post. "He's worked so hard to put himself in a position to earn this contract. I know he'll continue to give everything he has for the Rockies. Also, I'm grateful to play for an organization that has committed to winning and supports its players."
The organization now seems committed to trading its star third baseman.
Rumors of an Arenado trade have circulated in recent years, but it appears the Rockies are actively shopping him, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The St. Louis Cardinals look like the front-runners, and according to multiple reports, the Atlanta Braves have checked in as well.
Arenado has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which can be waived. But it's important to note he has an opt-out that can be exercised following the 2021 season. It's also important to note he has a somewhat tenuous relationship with general manager Jeff Bridich. Arenado said he felt "disrespected" by Bridich ahead of spring training last year after the executive made their feud public.
It's a messy situation, and it could allow a team to get one of the best third basemen in the game.
Arenado is a gifted defender at the hot corner. Watching how he deftly fields screaming ground balls to the left side, the way he charges slow rollers, the backhanded stops and the leaping catches to start double plays, it's clear he plays the position the way few can.
He also hits for power, which is key. Third base is a run-producing position, and while many infielders have the defensive abilities, they don't have the bat needed to cement themselves in the lineup.
With so many layers to this story, let's address some of the questions that surround these new rumors.
Is this the best long-term solution for the Rockies, even if they have to eat a large portion of the contract?
The best long-term solution for the Rockies would be to keep building around Arenado, but the Rockies have not signed a marquee free agent since Arenado, and that's telling. Also telling is the letter circulated to season-ticket holders following the conclusion of the World Series in which Monfort bemoaned the revenue losses.
Baseball's financial landscape is dire, and getting $35 million off the books this season and $164 million over the following five years may indicate the Rockies are in trouble. Or maybe not, and this is just a way to try to retool while gaining payroll flexibility.
Whatever the case may be, the Rockies are good but not good enough to compete with the Dodgers and the upstart San Diego Padres in the division. A teardown would probably be the best move to set them up for future success. But the club has never undergone a full rebuild. The Rockies tend to have enough good players to be competitive on a nightly basis, but not enough talent to battle the heavy hitters of the division, which leaves them somewhere in the middle year after year.
How much better would the 2021 Cards be with Arenado?
The Cardinals have 35-year-old Matt Carpenter slotted in at third base. Carpenter is still a good third baseman, but his offensive production has dropped off over the last two seasons.
Arenado would clearly be an upgrade defensively, and adding 40 home runs to the lineup would significantly boost the Cardinals' chances of winning the NL Central. However, some may question whether Arenado can hit outside Coors Field.
The 29-year-old product of Newport Beach, California, has hit 40 or more home runs three times and has a career OPS of .890. Critics have attributed his success to the Coors Field effect because of his drastic home and road splits (.322/.376/.609 with a .985 OPS at home, .263/.322/.471 with a .793 OPS on the road).
He would face an adjustment outside Coors Field, but many players, including former teammate DJ LeMahieu, have made positive adjustments. Players have told me it's easier to track pitches when the thin air isn't manipulating the trajectory of the pitch.
Is this a smart move for St. Louis in the long run?
It's tough to know. Arenado has made one thing clear throughout his tenure with the Rockies: He wants to play on a team that has a chance to make the playoffs each year. The Rockies seem to be going back on that commitment, which they made when he signed his contract.
Arenado could be enticed enough by St. Louis' history of success and annual commitment to winning to waive his no-trade. But he can opt out after one year and become a free agent, so he could end up being a very expensive rental.
Do the Braves actually make more sense?
The Braves have had success with taking on players for only one season, like third baseman Josh Donaldson and outfielder/DH Marcell Ozuna. But those players weren't paid upward of $30 million a year. Mark Bowman of MLB.com said the club does not seem interested in trading for Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant because it didn't want a $19.5 million rental.
Arenado's opt-out could scare away teams like the Braves, but there could be less trepidation if Colorado is willing to eat some salary.
Is this the Troy Tulowitzki situation all over again?
Baseball needs to figure out a system that allows franchises to hang on to their stars. It's a bad look when teams like the Oakland A's let homegrown players like Marcus Semien walk and Cleveland trades away two of its best players to shed salary. Maybe a salary floor is the answer since MLB's competitive balance tax (the luxury tax) is looking more and more like a salary cap.
In 2015, the Rockies traded Troy Tulowitzki to the Toronto Blue Jays in a move that stunned baseball and surprised the fan favorite himself.
Then in 2017 and 2018, the Rockies made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time in franchise history. In 2019, they signed Arenado to that long-term deal, and it seemed like the Rockies would be more than also-rans.
But relationships have soured, and so have the finances. Rocktober was fun in 2007, but it might be a few more years before we see that kind of excitement in the Mile High City again.
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