Bills vs. Chiefs: Top Fantasy Bets, Predictions for 2021 AFC Championship

Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs have been two of the most reliable wide receivers in the NFL all season.

With how often their respective quarterbacks target them, it feels difficult to take the under on any of the projected totals set for the players in the AFC Championship Game.

Hill comes into Sunday's clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills at Arrowhead Stadium off his fourth 100-yard performance since Week 9. Diggs turned in triple-digit receiving performances in five of his past six outings.

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen should target their No. 1 wideouts at a high clip, but they will also have to call on their depth at the position to advance to the Super Bowl.

The two quarterbacks have had success with that this season, but Allen has achieved a bit more with one of his third-string receivers who could be the difference-maker Sunday and a player you can cash in on for player props and fantasy bets.

Tyreek Hill

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Props: Over/Under 5.5 receptions, O/U 77.5 receiving yards, -134 anytime touchdown scorer

Hill's first two 100-yard postseason performances occurred in his two most recent playoff appearances.

The Chiefs' top wideout earned 105 yards off nine catches in Super Bowl LIV and totaled 110 yards on eight receptions in the divisional-round triumph over the Cleveland Browns.

In four of his eight playoff games, Hill earned more than 10 targets. He had at least seven receptions in each of those contests. Since Week 9, he has produced high totals in every major statistical category, which makes you believe he will add to those high playoff numbers against the Bills.

In that eight-game stretch, Hill was targeted more than 10 times on six occasions. He caught at least six balls in the same amount of games and totaled four 100-yard outings. Additionally, he has eight receiving touchdowns from that run. Six occurred in three-game span that lasted through Weeks 9, 11 and 12.

If Mahomes continues to throw the ball to Hill at a high rate, he has a good chance of eclipsing the over set for his receptions and receiving yards.

Those two props should be the most reliable bets to place on Hill. You can add in the touchdown prop if you believe Mahomes will go to him in red-zone situations or if he will break loose for a big play.

Prediction: Over 5.5 receptions, over 77.5 receiving yards, TD.

Stefon Diggs

Adrian Kraus/Associated Press

Prop Bets: O/U 7.5 receptions, 94.5 receiving yards, -106 anytime touchdown scorer

Diggs has found himself in the end zone more frequently than Hill in recent weeks, but he carries more value on his touchdown prop.

Buffalo's top wideout had three touchdown catches in Week 16 and reached the end zone once in each of his team's two playoff contests.

While his other props are higher than every other receiver's in the AFC Championship Game, Diggs has proved he can hit the over in receptions and receiving yards. He put up 128 yards in the Wild Card Round and totaled 106 yards in the divisional round. He had eight catches off 11 targets against the Baltimore Ravens.

His wild-card total of six catches and the seven receptions earned in Week 17, when most of the Buffalo starters played a single half, are the only two times in which Diggs has not recorded eight or more receptions since Week 13.

If Allen targets him at a similar rate Sunday, Diggs should at least hit the over for his receptions prop and make a healthy run at the receiving yards prop.

Since he has scored a touchdown in four of his past six games, it is worth taking a shot on the touchdown prop as well.

Prediction: Over 7.5 receptions, over 94.5 receiving yards, TD.

John Brown

John Munson/Associated Press

Props: O/U 4.5 receptions, O/U 52.5 receiving yards, +190 anytime touchdown scorer

Brown made a major contribution to the Buffalo offense in the divisional round.

The Buffalo wideout caught eight balls off 11 targets for 62 yards in his third game back from an injury that cost him six games in the second half of the regular season.

Brown surged past rookie Gabriel Davis on the production chart, as Davis failed to catch any of his four targets.

Saturday marked the third time this season that Brown was targeted more than 10 times by Allen. He also tied a season high with eight receptions. If Brown can be an effective option either down the field or in the slot, alongside Diggs and Cole Beasley, Buffalo will be well equipped for a high-scoring affair.

Brown only has three touchdown catches, so it will be smarter to approach his catches and yards props.

The yards prop has the best chance of hitting since he has the potential to earn more than 53 yards on a few catches. He had more than 60 yards in four of his past five games.

Prediction: Under 4.5 receptions, over 52.5 receiving yards, no TD.

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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