The Perfect Landing Spot for Biggest Names of 2020 MLB Free-Agent Class
The arrival of the new year also more or less marked two months since the 2020-21 Major League Baseball offseason began. And yet, the free-agent market is still loaded with talent.
Setting aside for a moment the many, mostly complicated reasons for why that's the case, we thought we'd offer a fresh look at the perfect fits for the top 10 free agents available.
We went looking for ideal matches between teams' needs and the given player's presumed priorities: getting paid, having a chance to win and, of course, the right conditions to perform well.
Let's count 'em down.
10. SS Didi Gregorius: Philadelphia Phillies
1 of 10
Following a down year with the New York Yankees in 2019, Didi Gregorius effectively bet on himself by accepting a one-year, $14 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies for 2020.
Ultimately, the 30-year-old boosted his value by putting up an .827 OPS and 10 home runs while holding it down at shortstop on a daily basis. The complication he faces now, however, is that not many contenders have a true need at shortstop.
The Cincinnati Reds are one of them, and they reportedly "love" Gregorius. Yet their hit-or-miss offense—which had an MLB-low .212 average last year—frankly needs more upside than Gregorius can provide. They're better off focusing on one of their reported trade targets: Francisco Lindor and Trevor Story.
Instead, a return to Philadelphia would be the best thing for Gregorius. They still have an opening for him at shortstop, and the man himself should realize that Citizens Bank Park's small dimensions are a good fit for his relatively non-explosive power. His average exit velocity for 2020 ranked in the second percentile.
Next-Best Fit: Cincinnati Reds
9. SS Marcus Semien: Oakland Athletics
2 of 10
In 2019, Marcus Semien emerged as an American League MVP finalist for the Oakland Athletics by way of an .892 OPS, 33 home runs and 8.9 rWAR.
But not unlike Gregorius after the '19 season, Semien hit this winter's market with diminished value after his production plunged in 2020. He had just a .679 OPS and seven homers, with a career-low 0.5 rWAR.
However, Semien may be able to expand his market by agreeing to move off shortstop. As FanSided's Robert Murray reported in December, some teams are interested in him as a second baseman or a third baseman. In theory, he might fit with the Boston Red Sox at the former and with the Washington Nationals at the latter.
Or, Semien could remain committed to shortstop and make like Gregorius and bet on himself with a one-year deal. Because he's also too volatile for an all-in bet on Cincinnati's part, it would be best for the Cal product to return to Oakland and slide back into the comfort zone that made him a star in the first place.
Next-Best Fit: Cincinnati Reds
8. RHP Liam Hendriks: San Diego Padres
3 of 10
Over the last two seasons, Liam Hendriks has made the turn from journeyman to star. His 99 appearances for the A's yielded a 1.79 ERA and the most rWAR of any relief pitcher.
If it's a question of which team simply needs Hendriks the most, the Phillies stand out as an obvious answer. Though they did well to buy low on hard-throwing southpaw Jose Alvarado, he alone won't fix a pen that pitched to an ugly 7.06 ERA in 2020.
However, Hendriks' main pursuers seem to be clubs that are hypothetically a closer away from World Series contention. The Chicago White Sox, for example, are in on the 31-year-old and indeed make sense for him after riding power hitting and power pitching to a 35-25 record in 2020.
Even better would be if the San Diego Padres also threw their hat in the ring for Hendriks. After adding aces Blake Snell and Yu Darvish and Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim to a roster that produced 37 wins in 2020, all they really need is an ace-caliber closer to fill Trevor Rosenthal's vacated shoes.
Next-Best Fit: Chicago White Sox
.png?w=256)
7. LF/DH Michael Brantley
4 of 10
Despite injuries that limited him to 101 games across the 2016 and 2017 seasons, Michael Brantley has been one of baseball's most consistent hitters since 2014.
He boasts a .311 average and .827 OPS overall in that span, and he was especially fruitful—i.e., an .867 OPS and 27 home runs—for the Houston Astros in 2019 and 2020. They understandably want him back, as they were reportedly discussing a new deal with the 33-year-old shortly after free agency opened in November.
Other clubs have since popped up in rumors concerning Brantley, most notably the Toronto Blue Jays (here) and New York Yankees (here). Trouble is, neither has a clear hole for him to fill in left field.
If that and his likely need for occasional duty at designated hitter ultimately push him back toward Houston, well, so be it. The Astros are still a leading contender in the AL West, after all, and Minute Maid Park was awfully good (.927 OPS, 16 HR) to Brantley's numbers across the '19 and '20 campaigns.
Next-Best Fit: Toronto Blue Jays
6. DH Nelson Cruz: Chicago White Sox
5 of 10
There isn't much doubt that Nelson Cruz and the Minnesota Twins will eventually get something done.
Cruz was the driving force behind Minnesota's AL Central titles in 2019 and 2020, racking up a 1.020 OPS and 57 home runs in 173 games. He apparently enjoyed it as much as the Twins did, as he echoed the club's overtures for a reunion in October. Though no deal has been struck yet, the two sides are still in touch.
Still, Cruz should keep his options open. Given that he's now 40 years old, he might only have one or two more seasons left in him. If he wants to make those all about winning an elusive World Series ring, Minnesota might not actually be the best home for him.
For instance, he should definitely listen if the White Sox come calling. They've added Lance Lynn to an already-solid starting rotation and Adam Eaton to an offense that ranked third in home runs in 2020. The latter would be that much more dangerous if Chicago inserted Cruz into its opening at DH.
Next-Best Fit: Minnesota Twins
5. 2B DJ LeMahieu: New York Yankees
6 of 10
So much for the notion that DJ LeMahieu could only hit at Coors Field. After joining the Yankees ahead of the 2019 season, he went off for a .336/.386/.536 line and 36 home runs in 195 games.
Unsurprisingly, the 32-year-old now has his pick of options on the free-agent market. Among them are the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers (here), the newly filthy-rich New York Mets (here) and the Blue Jays (here).
Yet it won't be easy for any of them to sign LeMahieu away from the Yankees. Bringing him back is reportedly the club's top priority, and LeMahieu himself may recognize that the Bronx Bombers are the best team for him.
Because he's both a good contact hitter and a prolific producer of hard contact, LeMahieu can be a good hitter anywhere. But Yankee Stadium is the best place for him to be a good power hitter, as its short right-field porch boosted him to the most opposite-field home runs of any right-handed hitter between 2019 and 2020.
Next-Best Fit: Los Angeles Dodgers
4. LF/DH Marcell Ozuna: Toronto Blue Jays
7 of 10
Like Josh Donaldson before him, Marcell Ozuna joined Atlanta on a one-year deal last winter and promptly boosted his value with a 1.067 OPS and a National League-high 18 home runs.
The catch is that Ozuna made 39 of his 60 starts as a designated hitter. There may be no going back from that, in which case his list of options is limited to AL clubs while the universal DH remains in limbo.
Out of the American League teams that could use Ozuna at DH, the Twins are a possibility while Nelson Cruz is still afloat on the open market. If they ultimately bring him back, Ozuna could find a home with the White Sox or Blue Jays.
Between the two, the latter is much more likely to sign Ozuna to a nine-figure contract—or at least, something close to it. He would also be an easy upgrade over Alejandro Kirk in the DH slot, not to mention a veteran presence in a lineup that's already loaded with youthful talent.
Next-Best Fit: Chicago White Sox
3. CF George Springer: New York Mets
8 of 10
Though he was implicated along with other remaining members of the 2017 Astros in MLB's revelation of that club's sign-stealing scheme, 2020 proved to be business as usual for George Springer.
He put up an .899 OPS and 14 home runs to maintain his place as one of the most productive outfielders in baseball. Overall, the only outfielders with more rWAR than Springer since 2016 are Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich.
Though various teams have been rumored to be after Springer throughout the winter, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News reported on Dec. 30 that the race is down to two teams: the Blue Jays and Mets.
Compared to, say, the Red Sox, Phillies or Astros, neither Toronto nor New York truly needs Springer in center field. But if we must nudge him toward one of the two, we'll side with the Mets because they have a greater need for his athleticism and because his right-handed bat would balance out their left-leaning lineup.
Next-Best Fit: Toronto Blue Jays
2. C J.T. Realmuto: Philadelphia Phillies
9 of 10
No catcher has ever signed a nine-figure deal in free agency, but J.T. Realmuto figures to change that in the near future.
He is, after all, pretty well cemented as the best backstop in baseball. Courtesy of a bat that's yielded an .812 OPS and his Gold Glove-winning defense, he leads all catchers with 14.7 rWAR over the last four seasons.
The Mets seemed like a natural fit for Realmuto at the outset of the offseason, but they opted to sign James McCann to a four-year contract instead. The 29-year-old's market has otherwise been surprisingly quiet, with only the Nationals showing interest in him.
This could be good news for the Phillies. Retaining Realmuto is their top priority, which hints that they're rightfully uncomfortable with moving forward with Andrew Knapp as their everyday catcher. And with Dave Dombrowski now in charge, their front office is in the hands of a guy with a history of doing big deals.
Next-Best Fit: Washington Nationals
1. SP Trevor Bauer: Los Angeles Angels
10 of 10
After an All-Star season in 2018 and a step back in 2019, Trevor Bauer went into last year as a wild card in the Reds rotation.
As it turned out, Bauer's excellence was never in doubt throughout the 2020 season. He won the NL Cy Young Award on the strength of a 1.73 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 73 innings, not to mention the best expected ERA of any pitcher who faced at least 250 batters.
True to form, Bauer has had some fun with his free agency on social media. But while he's winked at just about all of his potential suitors, the teams that can actually afford him and genuinely need him make for a shorter list.
Of those select few, the Los Angeles Angels stand out. They can offer the 29-year-old Southern California native a homecoming opportunity, as well as the chance to redeem a rotation that posted a 5.52 ERA in 2020. If successful, he'd be a perfect counterweight for the club's Mike Trout- and Anthony Rendon-led offense.
Next-Best Fit: Toronto Blue Jays
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
.png?w=480)
