10 Bold Predictions for MLB in 2021
The arrival of a new year brings, among other things, the inevitability of a new Major League Baseball season and the infinite possibilities within it.
There will come a time for rational projections for what will actually happen in baseball this year. But for now, we're feeling bold.
We've made 10 predictions for the 2021 MLB season that we're actually pretty sure won't come true, and yet we feel comfortable making them anyway. These concern players and teams that will or won't beat expectations and, naturally, a way-too-early call for which two clubs will make it to the World Series.
Let's count 'em down from least to most bold.
The Miami Marlins Will Finish in Last Place
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The Miami Marlins were an extraordinary success story in 2020 as they overcame an early-season coronavirus outbreak to notch their first postseason berth since 2003.
Based on how many runs they scored (263) and allowed (304), however, the 2020 Marlins hypothetically should have finished in last place in the National League East.
That's symbolic of the issues they had on both sides of the ball. To wit, their hitters and pitchers each ranked 13th in the NL in xwOBA, which measures expected production based on strikeouts, walks and contact quality.
Because of talented youngsters like Sandy Alcantara and Sixto Sanchez, there's indeed hope for Miami's pitching in 2021. But the club currently lacks a clear path to offensive improvement, which alone could sink it in a division that won't have any pushovers this year.
Hence our suspicion that this year's Marlins will fall back to the same place they occupied in 2018 and 2019: last place.
The Los Angeles Angels Will Win the AL West
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The Los Angeles Angels, on the other hand, could surprise people in 2021.
They've obviously been a disappointment in each of the last five seasons, most recently with a 26-34 run through 2020 that was mostly the fault of a starting rotation with a 5.52 ERA.
But in Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning and Jaime Barria, the Angels had four starters who were actually above-average by ERA+ in 2020. They're all set to return in 2021, and they'll be backed by a new closer in Raisel Iglesias.
Yet the Angels' most exciting feature is surely their offense. Led by Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and breakout rookie Jared Walsh, they had a top-five offense during their 17-13 finish to the 2020 season.
Because the Houston Astros (George Springer and Michael Brantley) and Oakland Athletics (Marcus Semien and Liam Hendriks) stand to lose key free agents, the Angels are also going into 2021 with an open path to first place in the American League West.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Will Win the AL Batting Title
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Elsewhere in the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays will go into this season with the intent to seize first place in the AL East.
Well, pardon us if we don't think it's a hot take that the Blue Jays can and will leapfrog the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. They're simply loaded with talent, particularly in a lineup that hasn't even seen the best of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The 21-year-old bears just a .269/.336/.442 batting line through 183 major league games, which doesn't quite measure up to the .331/.414/.531 line he had in the minors.
But in 2020, Guerrero made further strides with both his contact frequency (15.6 strikeout percentage) and contact quality (92.5 mph exit velocity). The only hurdle left between him and an offensive explosion is his much-too-high rate of ground balls.
It's not a leap to think Guerrero will clear that hurdle, in which case he could set his sights on the AL batting title.
Jesus Luzardo Will Win the AL Cy Young Award
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Speaking of former top prospects who've yet to live up to the hype, Jesus Luzardo is also in that boat.
The 23-year-old handled 59 innings for the Oakland Athletics in 2020, yet he mustered a mere 4.12 ERA. He was hit hard, finishing in the 38th percentile with his average exit velocity.
A bad season? Not at all. But it was a letdown for those who had high hopes for Luzardo after he had dominated his way through the minor leagues, culminating in a tantalizing tease in the majors in 2019.
Yet Luzardo's disappointing turn in 2020 did have silver linings in that he walked only 17 batters and struck out 59. The latter speaks to a fastball that averaged 95.5 mph and a curveball and changeup that each had whiff rates in the mid-40s.
Any pitcher with that combination of command and stuff has Cy Young-caliber upside, so we'll go out on a limb and pick Luzardo to win the award in the AL this year.
Randy Arozarena Will Win AL Rookie of the Year...and MVP
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If there's an antithesis to Guerrero and Luzardo, it's Randy Arozarena.
Though he mostly flew under the radar in the minors after the St. Louis Cardinals signed him in 2016, he put himself on the map with a 1.003 OPS at Double-A and Triple-A in 2019. Then along came the Rays, who acquired Arozarena in a trade last January.
It wasn't until Aug. 30 that the 25-year-old finally debuted for Tampa Bay, but he proved to be worth the wait. In 43 games between the regular season and the postseason, he went off for a .333 average, .745 slugging percentage and 17 home runs.
A performance like that might have "too good to be true" odor to it, but Arozarena earned it. He had a .403 xwOBA, which was Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuna Jr. territory in 2020.
With more of that, this year could see Arozarena make a run at not just the AL Rookie of the Year, but also the AL MVP.
Ian Anderson Will Win NL Rookie of the Year...and Cy Young Award
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The National League had its own version of Arozarena in 2020 in the person of Ian Anderson.
Atlanta took its time developing Anderson after drafting him third overall in 2016. He made 80 starts in the minors through 2019 and didn't get the call to the majors last year until Aug. 26.
Once Anderson finally arrived, he flourished with a 1.59 ERA in 10 starts between the regular season and the playoffs. His xwOBA in that span was just .254, which is about where Dinelson Lamet and Brandon Woodruff were during the regular season.
Ultimately, Anderson was just plain difficult to hit. He not only struck out 65 batters in 51 total innings last year, but he also allowed only three barrels (batted balls hit with an ideal combination of launch angle and exit velocity).
If he picks up where he left off, the 22-year-old could pull a Fernando Valenzuela in 2021 and win both the NL Rookie of the Year and the NL Cy Young Award.
Bryce Harper Will Win NL MVP
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Freddie Freeman could potentially mount a run at a second straight NL MVP in 2021, though Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto are but a small handful of stars who could get there first.
Oh, and don't forget about Bryce Harper.
To be sure, his unanimous MVP triumph as a member of the Washington Nationals in 2015 is the one and only time he's been a serious candidate for the award in his nine major league seasons.
Yet Harper has quietly been on a roll since August 2019, posting a .967 OPS and 30 home runs in 109 games. And that's despite being one of the biggest xwOBA underachievers in 2020, wherein he had more walks (49) than strikeouts (43) while hitting the ball at an elite average of 92.5 mph.
If Harper can collect on some outstanding good luck in 2021, he could put up numbers worthy of his epic performance from 2015. The Philadelphia Phillies and his MVP chances would benefit accordingly.
It Won't Be a Bounce-back Year for Christian Yelich
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While we're on the topic of former MVPs, we're actually not so certain Christian Yelich will regain his MVP form in 2021.
He was as sure a thing as there was in 2018 and 2019, across which he slashed .327/.415/.631 with 80 home runs for the Milwaukee Brewers. But with 2020 came a different story. Though Yelich played in 58 of Milwaukee's 60 games, he never got on track while hitting .205/.356/.430.
"It's not going to happen again," Brewers manager Craig Counsell promised in December.
Ah, but it could.
The back issues and broken kneecap Yelich endured in 2019 raise questions about his physical state going into his age-29 season. There's also the matter of last year's sudden spike to a 30.8 strikeout percentage, specifically relating to his issues making contact within the strike zone.
Look, we're not saying Yelich can't be better than he was in 2020. We're just saying there are enough reasons to believe his peak production is a thing of the past.
The Chicago White Sox Will Reach the World Series
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With so much talent still available on the ice-cold offseason market, it's way too soon to forecast which two clubs will meet in the 2021 World Series.
And yet we'll go ahead and cast our American League vote for the Chicago White Sox.
With them, there is no bigger attraction than their lineup. It's led by an MVP (Jose Abreu) and a batting champion (Tim Anderson), plus an elite slugger (Eloy Jimenez) and two power/speed threats (Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert). Beginning on Aug. 16, those guys helped make Chicago's offense one of MLB's best.
Following their trade for Lance Lynn, the White Sox also boast one of the AL's top rotation trios in him, Dallas Keuchel and Lucas Giolito. In Garrett Crochet and his 100.2 mph fastball, they might also have baseball's next great closer.
At least in theory, a roster with this many strengths should be more than capable of spearheading the White Sox's first World Series run since 2005.
The San Diego Padres Will Win the World Series
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Apropos of the last note about all that's left on the offseason market, it's premature to anoint the San Diego Padres as the 2021 World Series champions.
There's also, of course, the massive roadblock that is the Los Angeles Dodgers. They were fazed neither by the Padres nor by any other team last year, going 43-17 in the regular season and dispatching San Diego en route to their first World Series title since 1988.
And yet the Padres truly earned their 37-23 record, particularly through what they did on offense (third in runs per game) and defense (first in outs above average). When they signed Ha-Seong Kim, they only made their lineup stronger.
In fellow newcomers Blake Snell and Yu Darvish and incumbent ace Dinelson Lamet, the Padres also have three Cy Young-caliber arms atop their rotation. They likewise have a good closer in place in Drew Pomeranz.
The Padres are thus much like the White Sox on paper, except slightly better. Thus is their way pointed to their first World Series since 1998—and the first championship in their history.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
