College Football Playoff Standings: Top 25 Ranking and Final Bowl Projections
By Sunday afternoon, the full 2020-21 college football bowl schedule will be announced.
But it's Saturday night.
And we're not very patient.
Based on the many developments during conference championship weekend, we've put together final projections for all 32 bowls remaining on the schedule. (Though Stadium's Brett McMurphy reported multiple times on Saturday that we should expect to see that number drop in the next 24 hours.)
More than half of the Group of Five matchups have already been set in stone, but the Power Five and New Year's Six games will remain up in the air until the final College Football Playoff rankings are revealed.
That doesn't mean we can't make educated guesses, though.
Will Texas A&M crash the CFP?
Does Indiana get to play in a top-tier bowl game for the first time since the 1967 Rose Bowl?
Could two Group of Five teams make it into the New Year's Six?
We'll answer all those questions and more in one last glance into the bowl games crystal ball.
In addition to the bowls, our college football experts—David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller, Joel Reuter and Brad Shepard—put together one final pre-bowls Top 25 ranking. It isn't necessarily meant to be a projection of what the selection committee will do, but maybe they'll take our advice anyway.
B/R Post-Week 16 Top 25
1. Alabama (Last Week: 1)
2. Clemson (4)
3. Ohio State (3)
4. Notre Dame (2)
5. Cincinnati (5)
6. Texas A&M (6)
7. Oklahoma (10)
8. Coastal Carolina (7)
9. Indiana (8)
10. Florida (9)
11. Georgia (12)
12. BYU (16)
13. North Carolina (17)
14. Northwestern (13)
15. Louisiana (15)
16. Iowa State (10)
17. San Jose State (20)
18. Miami (18)
19. Iowa (21)
20. Liberty (23)
21. Ball State (NR)
22. Tulsa (19)
23. Texas (NR)
24. Oklahoma State (24)
25. NC State (NR)
Others receiving votes: USC and Colorado
Group of Five and Lower-Tier Power Five Bowls
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Myrtle Beach (Dec. 21): North Texas (4-5) vs. Appalachian State (8-3)
Boca Raton (Dec. 22): UCF (6-3) vs. BYU (10-1)
Famous Idaho Potato (Dec. 22): Nevada (6-2) vs. Tulane (6-5)
New Orleans (Dec. 23): Louisiana Tech (5-4) vs. Georgia Southern (7-5)
Montgomery (Dec. 23): Memphis (7-3) vs. Florida Atlantic (5-3)
New Mexico (Dec. 24): Houston (3-4) vs. Hawaii (4-4)
Camellia (Dec. 25): Louisiana (9-1) vs. Buffalo (5-1)
Independence (Dec. 26): Army (9-2) vs. Fresno State (3-3)
First Responder (Dec. 26): UTSA (7-4) vs. Western Michigan (4-2)
Gasparilla (Dec. 26): Liberty (9-1) vs. Boise State (5-2)
LendingTree (Dec. 26): Western Kentucky (5-6) vs. Georgia State (5-4)
Cure (Dec. 26): Coastal Carolina (11-0) vs. UAB (6-3)
Military (Dec. 28): Marshall (7-2) vs. Toledo (4-2)
Arizona (Dec. 31): Ball State (6-1) vs. San Jose State (7-0)
Birmingham (Jan. 1): Tulsa (6-2) vs. Kent State (3-1)
Not much has changed on this tier since our last projection on Tuesday night, but here are a few key developments:
On Friday night, UAB upset Marshall in the C-USA championship and Ball State stunned Buffalo in the MAC title game. Neither league has an explicit pecking order for its bowl assignments, but we've been assuming all season long that the C-USA champion will face the Sun Belt champion (likely in the Cure Bowl) while the MAC champion will draw the MWC champion in the Arizona Bowl. As a result of those two games, we did a little bit of rearranging for those four teams.
Also on Friday, SI's Ross Dellenger reported that Liberty is likely headed to the Gasparilla Bowl. Nothing official on that front yet, but we'll go ahead and put the Flames there. For what it's worth, I had Liberty vs. UCF as the Gasparilla matchup for five consecutive weeks before UCF accepted a bid to the Boca Raton Bowl instead. This has long seemed like a likely destination for the Flames.
On Saturday, San Jose State pulled off a bit of a shocker of its own, improving to 7-0 with a Mountain West championship victory over Boise State. The Spartans were No. 24 in the latest CFP rankings, and they should vault into the Top 20 now. They haven't gotten much national attention, but maybe we can correct that before they play in the Arizona Bowl.
Regarding the Birmingham, Gasparilla and Independence Bowls, which are supposed to include ACC, ACC and Pac-12 teams, respectively, more teams from those conferences opted out of bowl season this week, making it tough/impossible for them to fill these spots.
Unless 2-9 Duke or 1-10 Syracuse goes to a bowl game, there's no chance the ACC can fill its two bowls now that Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Virginia and Virginia Tech have all opted out. And between opt outs and the Pac-12's ruling that teams must be at least .500 to qualify for a bowl game, Arizona State, Colorado and Oregon are the only teams left standing from that league. And who knows if they'll all want to play in a bowl game?
That's all great news for the Mid-American Conference, which we now have projected for five bowl games. Without those openings, it might have been headed for just three spots in the postseason.
Power Five Bowls That Could Be Fun
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Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 26): Iowa (6-2) vs. West Virginia (5-4)
Music City (Dec. 30): Wisconsin (3-3) vs. Mississippi State (3-7)
Duke's Mayo (Dec. 30): Wake Forest (4-4) vs. Minnesota (3-4)
Liberty (Dec. 31): Arkansas (3-7) vs. Texas Tech (4-6)
Texas (Dec. 31): TCU (6-4) vs. Tennessee (3-7)
With Kansas State opting out of bowl season, Texas Tech slides into a projected spot in the Liberty Bowl for a sub-.500 showdown with Arkansas. That will be the primary game people point to when they argue that there are still way too many bowl games even after the many cancellations, but that actually might be an entertaining, high-scoring affair on account of the mutually not-good defenses.
The only other change on this tier from earlier in the week is Iowa drops down to the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.
Our assumption was that CFP No. 14 Northwestern would get crushed by Ohio State in the Big Ten championship, and that CFP No. 16 Iowa would easily take care of business against Michigan. Instead, the Iowa-Michigan game got canceled and Northwestern put up a surprisingly impressive fight against the Buckeyes.
There's certainly a chance that Northwestern will fall behind Iowa in the final CFP rankings, but that actually doesn't matter for bowls outside the New Year's Six. Northwestern's head-to-head victory over Iowa should serve as something of a tiebreaker in the Big Ten's decision to reward the Wildcats with the more high-profile spot in the Citrus Bowl.
Top Non-New Year's Six Power Five Bowls
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Cheez-It (Dec. 29): Miami (8-2) vs. Oklahoma State (7-3)
Alamo (Dec. 29): Texas (6-3) vs. Arizona State (2-2)
Armed Forces (Dec. 31): Colorado (4-1) vs. Kentucky (4-6)
Citrus (Jan. 1): Northwestern (6-2) vs. Auburn (6-4)
Outback (Jan. 2): Indiana (6-1) vs. Missouri (5-5)
Gator (Jan. 2): NC State (8-3) vs. Ole Miss (4-5)
With Washington and USC both opting out of bowl season, Arizona State and Colorado move up to the Alamo and Armed Forces Bowls, respectively. The Buffaloes have only won one bowl game thus far this century, barely beating UTEP in the 2004 Houston Bowl. If they do end up drawing Kentucky, it would make for an intriguing battle between teams with strong run games, weak pass attacks and solid defenses.
The best game of this bunch, though, is the Cheez-It Bowl.
Miami had an extremely disappointing finish to its regular season, getting smashed by North Carolina and dropping out of the New Year's Six picture as a result. But the Hurricanes had a great season prior to that nightmare, and they are liable to put up a lot of points against an Oklahoma State defense that struggled late in the year.
Miami has lost nine of its last 10 bowl games, though, including that 14-0 embarrassment against Louisiana Tech in last year's Independence Bowl. Will it be more of the same for the artists formerly known as The U, or will the 'Canes improve to 9-2 for what would be their best winning percentage since 2004.
Non-CFP New Year's Six Bowls
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Cotton (Dec. 30): No. 6 Oklahoma (8-2) vs. No. 9 Florida (7-3)
Peach (Jan. 1): No. 8 Cincinnati (9-0) vs. No. 7 Georgia (7-2)
Fiesta (Jan. 2): No. 10 Iowa State (8-3) vs. No. 22 Oregon (4-2)
Orange (Jan. 2): No. 14 North Carolina (8-3) vs. No. 5 Texas A&M (8-1)
The above rankings are my projection of the final CFP Top 25.
Assuming a College Football Playoff quartet of Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Ohio State, here's how the rest of the New Year's Six will fall into place:
- North Carolina will face Texas A&M in the Orange Bowl as the highest-ranked non-playoff teams from the ACC and B1G/SEC, respectively. We'll dive into Texas A&M's case for the No. 4 seed momentarily, but the Aggies will be in the Orange Bowl if they're unable to vault ahead of Notre Dame or Ohio State.
- Oregon is locked into the Fiesta Bowl after its Pac-12 championship victory over USC.
- Oklahoma is locked into either the Cotton, Fiesta or Peach Bowl with its Big 12 championship. It will probably go to the Cotton Bowl to face an SEC team.
- Georgia is effectively guaranteed a spot on this tier, as it was No. 8 in the latest CFP rankings and did not play this week.
- Georgia will likely play in the Peach Bowl against Cincinnati, the highest-ranked Group of Five champion.
The final two spots are at least a little bit up for grabs, though it seems likely that No. 6 Iowa State and No. 7 Florida will remain in the NY6 mix in spite of losses this week to Oklahoma and Alabama, respectively.
Even if the Cyclones and Gators both drop a couple of spots, they'll be fine as long as they remain ahead of No. 11 Indiana and No. 12 Coastal Carolina, each of which had its game canceled this week.
Had Iowa State gotten blown out by the Sooners, maybe it would have fallen five spots. A 27-21 loss shouldn't be enough to knock the Cyclones out, though. And if losing at home to LSU only cost Florida one spot in the rankings, a loss to Alabama on a neutral field probably isn't going to cost the Gators four spots this week.
Were it up to me, I would absolutely award those spots to Indiana and Coastal Carolina instead of giving them to a pair of three-loss non-champions. But I'm just trying to project what the selection committee will do, and it usually does not harshly penalize teams for losing their conference championships.
College Football Playoff
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Jan. 1
Rose: No. 2 Clemson (10-1) vs. No. 3 Ohio State (6-0)
Sugar: No. 1 Alabama (11-0) vs. No. 4 Notre Dame (10-1)
Projected final rankings
Jan. 11
National Championship: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Clemson
If Notre Dame had beaten Clemson in the ACC championship, this would have been the least complicated final rankings in College Football Playoff history. That would have resulted in No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Notre Dame, No. 3 Ohio State and No. 4 Texas A&M.
Instead, the Fighting Irish went to Charlotte and laid a colossal egg against the full-strength Tigers, pushing Clemson to No. 2 and ensuring there will be a fierce debate over whether Notre Dame or Texas A&M should get the No. 4 seed.
Each team put together a one-loss season without a conference championship. In that lone loss, each team was blown out by one of the two best teams in the country. Each team's best win (Notre Dame vs. Clemson in double-overtime; Texas A&M vs. Florida on a last-second field goal) was a nail-biter at home. Each team also had an impressive road win late in the season (Notre Dame at North Carolina; Texas A&M at Auburn). And then the rest of each team's resume consists of wins over opponents who were either mediocre or just plain bad.
More so than any other year, it truly boils down to a committee discussion over which team is best as opposing to which team is most deserving.
Personally, I would give it to Texas A&M. The Aggies started out slow, in part because one of their best players, WR Jhamon Ausbon, opted out less than two weeks before the start of the season. They also lost a key defensive back, Elijah Blades, as an early September opt out. But after a poor showing in the opener against Vanderbilt and a blowout loss at Alabama the following week, they improved by leaps and bounds and now look like one of the best teams in the country.
However, our official projection is that Notre Dame will get in. And no, it has nothing to do with the selection committee wanting to avoid an Alabama-Texas A&M rematch in the Sugar Bowl. I can't even comprehend how that became a talking point in regard to the selection process this year, but I promise you that is not something the committee worries about.
They just want to pick the four best teams, in the proper order, regardless of what pairings that creates. And I have my doubts that the committee would drop Notre Dame from No. 2 to No. 5, regardless of how badly it lost to Clemson.
Bowl Games by Conference
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Here is the full breakdown of bowl projections listed alphabetically by conference. New Year's Six games have been italicized and underlined to help those of you who just scrolled to the bottom to find the marquee bowls.
American Athletic (6 teams): Cincinnati (Peach Bowl), Houston (New Mexico Bowl), Memphis (Montgomery Bowl), Tulane (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl), Tulsa (Birmingham Bowl), UCF (Boca Raton Bowl) [SMU would have gone to the Frisco Bowl if not for a COVID outbreak on the Mustangs roster that forced the game to be canceled.]
Atlantic Coast (6 teams): Clemson (Rose Bowl), Miami (Cheez-It Bowl), NC State (Gator Bowl), North Carolina (Orange Bowl), Notre Dame (Sugar Bowl), Wake Forest (Duke's Mayo Bowl)
Big 12 (7 teams): Iowa State (Fiesta Bowl), Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl), Oklahoma State (Cheez-It Bowl), TCU (Texas Bowl), Texas (Alamo Bowl), Texas Tech (Liberty Bowl), West Virginia (Guaranteed Rate Bowl)
Big Ten (6 teams): Indiana (Outback Bowl), Iowa (Guaranteed Rate Bowl), Minnesota (Duke's Mayo Bowl), Northwestern (Citrus Bowl), Ohio State (Rose Bowl), Wisconsin (Music City Bowl)
Conference USA (7 teams): Florida Atlantic (Montgomery Bowl), Louisiana Tech (New Orleans Bowl), Marshall (Military Bowl), North Texas (Myrtle Beach Bowl), UAB (Cure Bowl), UTSA (First Responder Bowl), Western Kentucky (LendingTree Bowl)
Independents (3 teams): Army (Independence Bowl), BYU (Boca Raton Bowl), Liberty (Gasparilla Bowl)
Mid-American (5 teams): Ball State (Arizona Bowl), Buffalo (Camellia Bowl), Kent State (Birmingham Bowl), Toledo (Military Bowl), Western Michigan (First Responder Bowl)
Mountain West (5 teams): Boise State (Gasparilla Bowl), Fresno State (Independence Bowl), Hawaii (New Mexico Bowl), Nevada (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl), San Jose State (Arizona Bowl)
Pac-12 (3 teams): Arizona State (Alamo Bowl), Colorado (Armed Forces Bowl), Oregon (Fiesta Bowl)
Southeastern (11 teams): Alabama (Sugar Bowl), Arkansas (Liberty Bowl), Auburn (Citrus Bowl), Florida (Cotton Bowl), Georgia (Peach Bowl), Kentucky (Armed Forces Bowl), Mississippi State (Music City Bowl), Missouri (Outback Bowl), Ole Miss (Gator Bowl), Tennessee (Texas Bowl), Texas A&M (Orange Bowl)
Sun Belt (5 teams): Appalachian State (Myrtle Beach Bowl), Coastal Carolina (Cure Bowl), Georgia Southern (New Orleans Bowl), Georgia State (LendingTree Bowl), Louisiana (Camellia Bowl)
Teams That Have Opted Out or Self-Imposed Postseason Bans (17 teams): Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Louisville, LSU, Penn State, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington, Washington State
Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.
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