Would the Philadelphia 76ers Regret Trading Ben Simmons for James Harden?

The NBA's rumor mill never seems to take a night off. On Thursday, less than a week after James Harden's first practice with the 2020-21 Houston Rockets, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski and Ramona Shelburne reported that the organization was expanding its efforts to ship out the 2017-18 MVP.

The juiciest nugget in the story may well have been this: "While the [Philadelphia 76ers] have signaled a willingness to include All-Star guard Ben Simmons in trade packages for Harden, those talks have come nowhere close to a deal."

Yes, the sentence closes with a "nowhere close to a deal" caveat, and 76ers president Daryl Morey responded to the report by telling Stadium and The Athletic's Shams Charania that they "are not trading Ben Simmons—he is an important part of our future."

But this is certainly movement from the last batch of news on the Harden front.

The Simmons-for-Harden swap has been staring us in the face for a while. Hearing that Philly might be seriously considering moving him is big. Would it be the right call, though?

The whole point of Sam Hinkie's team-building philosophy was getting as many shots at the lottery as possible. It yielded multiple top-five picks but only a single No. 1 overall selection.

That, of course, was Simmons. And while many focus on the one thing he seemingly can't do (shoot threes) and associate teammate Joel Embiid more closely with "The Process," Simmons is undoubtedly one of the most appealing fruits of Hinkie's labors.

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Over the course of his first three NBA seasons, Simmons has 3,553 points, 1,800 rebounds and 1,726 assists. LeBron James and Magic Johnson are the only other players in league history who hit all three marks before their age-24 campaigns. And they both played significantly more minutes than Simmons.

Yes, the inability and flat-out unwillingness to shoot from the outside is far from ideal, especially in 2020, when even centers are expected to launch threes. Simmons contributes in just about every other facet of the game, though.

At 6'10", he can see the floor in a way few other point guards can. His size allows him to blanket opposing 1s on defense, as well. Imagine having to deal with the length and athleticism of an average point guard on just about every other night of the season and then attempting to break down a player with that kind of length.

That size doesn't come at the expense of quickness, either. Simmons moves like a guard all over the perimeter, whether laterally or north-to-south, and he's one of the game's fastest end-to-end players in transition.

Passing, rebounding, interior and perimeter defense are all strengths. It just so happens that his biggest weakness may be at the most important skill in the game. And his lack of shooting makes his fit alongside Embiid tricky.

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Both young stars are most effective around the basket (though Embiid at least tries to stretch his game out to the three-point line). Both can be ball-dominant at times. That has led to plenty of possessions that feel crowded, or worse, confused.

Simmons driving into a paint packed with Embiid and multiple defenders can lead to funky finishing attempts. Embiid's post-ups are easier to help down on when Simmons is the one "spacing" the floor.

All of that was especially true in 2019-20, when the Sixers attempted to square-peg Al Horford into the round hole that was the team's power forward position.

After truly dominating (to the tune of plus-21.7 points per 100 possessions) the league with a lineup of Simmons, Embiid, JJ Redick, Robert Covington and Dario Saric in 2017-18, Philadelphia gradually started shifting away from the versatility and shooting of that group.

It went from an all-time great floor-spacer in Redick and two perimeter-oriented forwards in Covington and Saric to what was basically a three-center lineup. Embiid was the traditional 5. Horford was a bit more modern, so he could maybe play the 4. And Simmons, though he's listed as a 1, could almost be classified as a point center.

Turns out, three functional centers in 2020 wasn't a great idea. When those three shared the floor, the Sixers were minus-0.7 points per 100 possessions.

The more recent numbers shouldn't be read as incontrovertible evidence against the Simmons-Embiid pairing, though. In his first offseason on the job, former Rockets executive Daryl Morey rebalanced the roster. Horford and Josh Richardson (who shot below his career level from three in 2019-20) are out. Two of the best shooters of all time are in.

Seth Curry is second in NBA history in career three-point percentage. Danny Green is 47th, and he can provide some multipositional defense as well.

The addition of those two bumps Tobias Harris to a more modern fit for his game at the 4. And with Simmons, Green, Harris and Embiid, there should be enough size, athleticism and switchability to cover for much of Curry's defensive struggles.

This group just makes sense. Why break it up before you even see it in action?

Well, Harden is Harden, for one.

This isn't just a star on the trade market. This is one of the greatest offensive players of all time. He's fifth in career offensive box plus/minus and fifth in career points per 75 possessions.

This is a player who nearly reached the mountaintop with Morey in Houston. The Rockets' winning percentage during their time together ranked third in the NBA, and Chris Paul's hamstring injury ended a real bid to upset the Golden State Warriors.

This is a player who, at least on paper, is a better fit with Embiid. Pick-and-rolls with Simmons and Embiid are just begging for drop coverage. Neither is, at least at the moment, a threat to pick that kind of defense apart with three-point shooting. Go under a ball screen on Harden, and you're just begging to be lit up. Double down on Embiid's post-ups with Harden on the floor, and you're looking at a similar outcome.

The argument to push for this swap isn't hard to make, but it also isn't a no-brainer.

Harden is 31. Simmons is 24. Harden is making $41.3 million this season and is under contract through 2022-23 (though he can opt out a year earlier). Simmons is at $30.6 million and under contract through 2024-25. Harden's already dubious defense could age horribly. Simmons has already shown Defensive Player of the Year potential.

And whatever issues may exist between Simmons and Embiid seem to be confined to the court, for now. Given what we've recently learned about Houston's culture of capitulation to Harden, would Philadelphia want to combine Harden's personality with Embiid's? How long before off-court issues between Harden and Embiid would be worse than the perceived misfit between Simmons and Embiid's games?

That, of course, is conjecture. Predicting the future, especially when it involves egos, is impossible. And Morey knows Harden better than any executive in the league. If he thinks it can work, his inside experience should carry more weight than an outsider's analysis.

Philadelphia would be looking at a two-year window with Harden, though. The Brooklyn Nets, Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks all figure to be contenders during that stretch (not to mention the Western Conference). What if the Sixers don't win a championship with Harden and Embiid? What if Harden starts to decline? What if he shows just enough to warrant one more monster contract? Would the Sixers want to pay that?

On the other side of the deal, Simmons would still be on the verge of his prime in two years. It's not too late for him to add a reliable jump shot. Jason Kidd didn't get there till his 30s. And again, even without that addition to his game, there's already ample evidence Simmons and Embiid can coexist. They just need to be surrounded by shooting, as they now are.

Harden is a surefire Hall of Famer. He almost certainly raises the Sixers' ceiling in the short term. There are enough long-term questions to motivate Philadelphia to wait, though.

If Curry and Green aren't the cure-alls they appear to be on paper, Philadelphia can revisit these trade talks ahead of the March 25 trade deadline. That is unless Harden gets dealt elsewhere. That threat could pressure the Sixers into making a move now. 

But if they rush this, they may end up regretting it.