Advice for StatHero NFL Team Survivor Picks in Week 15
Even as the NFL season winds down, StatHero continues to run strong with new and existing contests.
Fantasy football players eliminated from season-long leagues could be looking for new competition in Week 15. The same goes for everyone knocked out of survivor pools or tired of multi-entry daily fantasy tournaments that pay out a microscopic percentage of participants.
StatHero tweaks the usual formula with a team-based fantasy game formatted like a survivor pool. Each week, anyone can join a new contest. If they win, they'll keep playing the next week without paying anything beyond the first-time entry fee.
The game is simple. Pick one team and then craft a lineup consisting solely of their players (plus one wild card in the first round). Beyond the quarterback and three flex players, the key is selecting the right MVP, whose points double.
Rather than going up against everyone else, your only mission is to beat StatHero's lineup. Score more than the house and you'll receive a payout with the chance to win more next week. If you fall short, there are always opportunities to start fresh.
Given this structure, the most important step is locating the right NFL squad. Keep in mind that a contrarian team can set you apart if the rest of the pool gets dragged down by a busted chalk pick. Also, you can only use a team once per contest.
That limitation comes into play in Bleacher Report's third StatHero lineup.
Team: Indianapolis Colts
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Utilized in the past two weeks, the Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans weren't considered eligible. If available, both are commendable options against the Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions, respectively.
This is a tough week to locate a truly reliable choice as the teams with the best matchups don't roster a bankable standout a la Davante Adams or Derrick Henry to slide into the pivotal MVP position. Picking the wrong anchor is the main (and perhaps only) risk in selecting the Los Angeles Rams for a home tilt against the New York Jets.
Few fantasy players would have trusted the Indianapolis Colts earlier in the season, but they're quickly emerging as an offensive force down the stretch.
Since Week 9's 24-10 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis has amassed 164 points in five games. Before trouncing the Las Vas Raiders in last week's 44-27 win, the Colts earned a more modest 26-20 victory over the Houston Texans.
Even if it wasn't a high-octane shootout, some disappointing performers came alive for the Colts against their AFC South foe. The NFL's ninth-rated offense could perform better in Sunday's rematch at Lucas Oil Stadium.
The oddsmakers think so. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Indianapolis has an implied team total of 29.5 points.
Only the Jacksonville Jaguars have permitted more total yards per game than the Texans (406.6), who guided the Chicago Bears to their highest point tally of the season (36) last weekend. Per ESPN.com's Sarah Barshop, Texans star J.J. Watt called his defense's effort "embarrassing."
The Week 14 loss officially eliminated Houston from playoff contention. With little to play for beyond draft positioning, the Texans could get embarrassed once more by a team currently tied with Tennessee for first place in the AFC South.
MVP: RB Jonathan Taylor
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Just a month ago, Jonathan Taylor had the makings of a major bust. The rookie is now poised to carry the Colts into the postseason and lead fantasy gamers to glory.
Taylor's usage and performance dwindled early in November, but that has changed in a hurry. Over his last three games, the second-round pick has registered 414 total yards and three touchdowns on 55 carries and nine catches.
He broke off the biggest play of his career—a 62-yard touchdown run—against the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday. Factoring in the six-point bonus for that long score, his final line (150 rushing yards, two touchdowns, two catches, 15 receiving yards) would have netted 61 StatHero points if doubled as the lineup's MVP.
Two weeks ago, Taylor totaled 135 yards and a touchdown against the Texans. He should exploit this highly advantageous matchup again.
Only the Dallas Cowboys have ceded more rushing yards per game than the Texans, who have also relinquished the second-most yards per carry (5.0), behind only the state's other 4-9 club. They've allowed a rushing touchdown in all but one game this season.
Last Sunday, David Montgomery became the sixth back to pair a score with over 100 rushing yards against Houston. Taylor was one of three other running backs to produce at least 98 total yards and a score.
Forgive the sluggish start to Taylor's NFL tenure and trust him to find the end zone with triple-digit yards as the lead back for a sizable home favorite.
QB: Philip Rivers
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Don't expect to prevail solely on the strength of Philip Rivers' arm. The 39-year-old is no longer a fearless gunslinger to deploy for high-stakes DFS tournaments in which upside trumps all.
He does, however, offer a sturdy floor with the near assurance of a solid return.
Rivers is averaging 285 yards and two touchdowns over his last eight games. In Week 14, he hit both marks on the dot against the Texans.
That outing is part of an ongoing four-game streak with multiple passing touchdowns. A year after tossing 20 interceptions with the Los Angeles Chargers, he has just nine. His last two-pick game traces all the way back to Week 5.
The Texans, meanwhile, have orchestrated an NFL-low three interceptions all season. That's accompanied by the third-most yards allowed per pass attempt (7.9) and the worst opposing quarterback rating (108.1).
Your defense is in serious disarray when Mitchell Trubisky can avoid any turnovers while going 24-of-33 with 267 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Even if Taylor takes center stage, as expected, Rivers should have little trouble contributing roughly 20 points to your StatHero squad.
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Flex: WR T.Y. Hilton
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Like Taylor, T.Y. Hilton has sharply turned the corner and sprinted full speed ahead.
Formerly a steady source of 1,000-yard seasons while teaming with Andrew Luck, the 5'10" playmaker had not reached 70 receiving yards in a single game this season through Week 11. He has cleared 80 in each of the last three contests, collecting 277 total yards and all four of his 2020 touchdowns.
He enjoyed his best outing at Houston, setting season highs in targets (11), receptions (eight), and yards (110). Torching the Texans is nothing new for Hilton, who has dismantled them for 1,647 yards and 11 touchdowns in 17 career encounters.
The last meeting was perfect timing as Houston had just lost Bradley Roby to a six-game suspension for a PED violation. Allen Robinson II then proceeded to post 123 receiving yards and a touchdown on a secondary missing its top cornerback.
Adding to the Texans' troubles, safety Justin Reid will miss the remainder of the season due to a hand injury.
Hilton parlayed high volume into a huge outing two weeks ago, but he's a major threat to burn this wounded defense deep and unlock a three- (10-39 yards) or six-point (40 yards or more) touchdown bonus. Although there's merit to declaring him the MVP, which would be the right play in a tournament-style contest, Taylor is safer due to the higher probability of ample backfield touches.
Flex: WR Michael Pittman Jr.
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Hilton's revival has come at the cost of Michael Pittman Jr.'s emergence.
The rookie was on the path to becoming Rivers' preferred wide receiver, recording 244 yards and a touchdown from Weeks 9-11. He has a combined nine catches for 116 yards in the last three bouts.
Don't write off Pittman just yet. The 6'4" newcomer has actually received more targets in the latter three-game sample (19) than the prior one (18). He also played in at least 80 percent of the team's offensive snaps in all six of those contests.
Rivers and Pittman connected on all five looks for 46 yards against Houston in Week 13. Averaging 12.7 yards per reception for the season, he could inflict more damage on a depleted secondary if given steady work.
Roby's absence could help Pittman just as much as Hilton in Week 15. Pro Football Focus' WR/CB Matchup Chart projects a favorable matchup against Houston cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III, who has allowed 0.31 fantasy points per route.
This could finally be the game in which both Hilton and Pittman help fantasy investors, perhaps with the help of some positive touchdown regression. Pittman has reached paydirt just once this season, but Pro Football Reference credits him with seven red-zone targets over his last five games. Look for him to play a meaningful role in this divisional rematch.
Flex: RB Nyheim Hines
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Taylor is now the lead back in Indianapolis, but Nyheim Hines keeps playing his part with aplomb.
Even with Taylor stamping his claim as the Colts' undisputed featured back, Hines has hauled in 15 of 17 targets for 105 receiving yards in the last three games. He's even added 97 rushing yards and a touchdown, which came against the Texans, on 23 handoffs.
The team leader in receptions is getting enhanced rushing work recently. Hines has more carries in his last five games (41) than the first nine (33), and he has received 13 of those handoffs inside the red zone (eight inside the 10) from Week 9 onward.
This backfield is no longer a bitter three-man timeshare; Jordan Wilkins played just six snaps Sunday. Keep him out of the equation and Hines can fill a fruitful change-of-pace role while Indianapolis feeds Taylor a bell-cow portion of touches.
Of course, the point-per-reception (PPR) format is still his smoothest path to StatHero production. Per NFL.com, the Texans have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards (45.6 per game) to running backs.
The opportunity for around four or five catches and goal-line assignments make Hines too tantalizing to pass up for any of the Colts' volatile tight ends.
Note: Advanced stats are courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.
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