SEC Championship 2020: Alabama vs. Florida Breakdown, Predictions

Who knew a single shoe could take the shine off the SEC Championship Game? 

When Florida defensive back Marco Wilson tossed an LSU player's cleat 20 yards downfield in the fourth quarter of Saturday night's game—eventually leading to a game-winning field goal for the Tigers—every last bit of hope the Gators had of making the College Football Playoff went with it. 

The loss deflates some of the intrigue around Saturday's title game in Atlanta, but the Gators are still in contention for a New Year's Six bowl game and have a chance to play spoiler to Alabama's undefeated season and CFP aspirations.

Even with a loss to the Gators, though, it's hard to believe Alabama—the most dominant team in the country this season—would miss the playoff completely. 

Ahead of the showdown, we're breaking down the key matchups that will decide who walks out of the Mercedes-Benz Stadium with the SEC championship trophy in hand. 

Key Matchups

Alabama Offense vs. Florida Defense

The Crimson Tide are arguably the only team in the country with two legitimate Heisman contenders in quarterback Mac Jones and wide receiver DeVonta Smith.

They have connected 83 times this season for 1,327 yards and 15 touchdowns, and Smith might have made his case as the best player in the country, regardless of position. 

Alabama's other skill players are no slouches, either. Running back Najee Harris has rushed for 1,083 yards and 22 touchdowns, and six others have at least 10 catches on the season. Only North Carolina has scored more touchdowns this season, and the Tide's 537.8 yards per game are the fifth best in the Football Bowl Subdivision. 

The Gators' defense, meanwhile, hasn't exactly set the world on fire, but it hasn't been awful, either. It has held four opponents under 20 points, but this weekend's loss to LSU, in which they gave up 37 points and 420 yards of offense, showed how vulnerable it can be. 

Unlike most teams Alabama has faced this season, Florida has the offensive horsepower to keep this game competitive, but the Gators will have to make enough stops to keep the Tide from hanging 60 on them.

Florida Offense vs. Alabama Defense 

Even with Alabama's vaunted passing attack, there has been no more potent throwing offense in the country than Florida's this season.

After a stellar junior season in which he threw 25 touchdowns, quarterback Kyle Trask has been on a completely different level in 2020, throwing for 371 yards per game, 40 touchdowns and just five interceptions. 

The 22-year-old has a bevy of weapons, including All-American tight end Kyle Pitts, who has reeled in 11 touchdowns on 36 catches, and do-it-all wideout Kadarius Toney with nine touchdowns of his own. Even more mind-boggling than that is the offensive balance the Gators possess, with eight players amassing more than 240 yards from scrimmage this season. 

On the other side, Alabama boasts a good—though not elite—defense that ranks 27th nationally in total yards allowed.

The Tide are, arguably, most vulnerable against the pass, but they are still only giving up 227 yards and one passing touchdown per game. They haven't faced an offense with nearly the level of weapons Florida possesses, though, and if Trask can find time in the pocket, he'll be able to dissect Alabama's secondary. 

Prediction

As it always does, Alabama will show up in a big way for the SEC Championship Game. The Tide haven't lost in one since 2008, and this year won't break that trend. Alabama 42, Florida 31. 

Follow Keegan on Twitter @ByKeeganPope.