4 Ways Charles Oliveira Can Beat Tony Ferguson at UFC 256

Let's concede something: Charles Oliveira is an underdog—albeit not a prohibitive one—for a reason.

The guy he'll meet in the final run-up to the UFC 256 main event, Tony Ferguson, is on both the lightweight (No. 3) and pound-for-pound (No. 14) rankings lists and has lost precisely one fight in eight years.

So, if you're heading to a betting window before fight time arrives Saturday night, you'd be something less than a fiscal daredevil if you went ahead and laid mad money down on the fiery Californian.

But if you think that means Oliveira can't win their clash of 155-pound contenders, think again.

The 31-year-old's submission chops rival anyone else's on the promotional roster, he's won seven straight fights since last tasting defeat three years ago, and he has been carrying himself with the sort of confidence needed when transitioning from the cable-TV kiddie pool to the pay-per-view deep end.

Ferguson is everything they say he is, but the gap between him and Oliveira is hardly unbridgeable.

To illustrate that point, we put together a brief list with some ways and means through which the B-sider can break through and add himself to the company's highest-profile class.

Click through to see if you agree, and let us know in the comments what you think.

Prolong the Trauma

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Do yourself a favor under the veil of research.

Go back and rewatch Ferguson's UFC 249 main event with Justin Gaethje. See the comprehensive nature of the beating he took for nearly all of 25 minutes. Watch the way he reeled drunkenly—and, perhaps, dangerously—as the fight concluded. Look closely at the tattered remains of his face in the aftermath.

Then try to convince yourself that it can't happen again.

Is Oliveira the type of fighter likely to paint another bloody picture onto Ferguson's newly healed face? Perhaps not. But he's no amateur in there, either. He's beaten 29 opponents in a 12-year career, and only two of them were still competing at the final bell.

He's a legit commodity. And if Ferguson isn't totally beyond the calamity that occurred in May—both physically and mentally—there's no reason to believe a repeat is impossible.

Continue the Momentum

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As we said, Oliveira is completely legit.

He's been in the Octagonal big leagues for 17 of his 29 career victories, and his winning resume includes names like Jim Miller, Jeremy Stephens and Kevin Lee. He has more submissions on his ledger (19) than anyone else on the promotional roster.

Not to mention those seven straight wins.

And while we'll not try to suggest Oliveira hasn't fallen short before and wasn't the guy who was erased by Paul Felder at UFC 218 three years ago, we will offer that the run he's now on translates to his longest stretch of uninterrupted success since arriving at the UFC in 2010.

He's hot. He's talented. And perhaps most importantly, he's convinced that he deserves the big-stage opportunity that he's forever been craving. And let's not forget: his opponent this weekend was pursuing bigger quarry and endured the worst beating of his career in his most recent fight.

Trends matter.

Spring the Trap

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Oliveira doesn't need to apologize for being here.

He's the seventh-ranked lightweight in the world and comes complete with all the competitive bells, whistles and win streaks that we've already addressed.

But let's face it: this isn't the way Ferguson thought he'd be spending his holidays.

The 36-year-old Californian endured a series of disappointments while chasing since-retired (for today, at least) champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, and he was headlining a UFC pay-per-view show when the express train toward a title belt was derailed by Gaethje's 143 significant strikes.

He was campaigning for matches with either Conor McGregor or Michael Chandler for his post-Gaethje return and as recently as a few weeks ago was trolling both men on Twitter with suggestions that they're the ones he'd like to be engaging with between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Ambition is admirable enough, but it's a dangerous game to play when you have a real fighter in front of you.

Seize the Throat

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We've addressed the intangibles. Now let's cue up some strategy.

Though the term "submission master" is tossed around liberally, a few guys have earned the label.

Oliveira, without debate, is one of them.

His resume includes 19 submission victories, including 14 in the Octagonal ranks.

No one has more.

And while a prime Ferguson is surely a cut above any of the foes whom Oliveira has erased, it's not as if the Millers and Lees of the world were pulled in from taxi cabs. They had street cred. They were still finished.

Not to mention the fact, albeit a while ago, that it's happened to Ferguson too.

Long before El Cucuy became a household name among MMA heads, he was on the short end of a triangle-choke finish in an NFAMMA bout against Jamie Toney.

And whaddya know? All but three of Oliveira's sheaf of submissions have come by chokes, including 11 straight dating back to 2012. 

Could Ferguson go an entire bout without an instant of danger? Sure.

But don't hold your breath.