UFC 256: Breaking Down the Best Value Picks for Gamblers
UFC 256 is the final pay-per-view event for the company in 2020.
The action is set to take place live at UFC APEX in Las Vegas, and the main event is scheduled to feature the fastest turnaround in UFC championship history.
Men's flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo just stopped Alex Perez in the main event of UFC 255, now the 125-pound king is taking on top-ranked contender Brandon Moreno in the main event of UFC 256.
But there are plenty of other important fights scheduled, too. Most notably, fan-favorite Tony Ferguson returns to action to jump right back into the deep end of the 155-pound pool against Charles Oliveira.
But before all that takes place, Bleacher Report breaks down the best value picks for gamblers. Read through these betting tips, and be sure to leave your own best bets in the comments, too.
Good Value
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Both Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba seem similar on paper.
Each woman has lost just one fight in her career, and each fighter suffered that loss in the UFC.
While Dern's jiu-jitsu is some of the best in the sport, Jandiroba is also a stalwart on the ground by MMA standards, too. Moreover, Jandiroba has consistently shown she can force the action down to the mat when and where she wants.
But Dern is five years younger than her opponent.
Moreover, she's shown an ability to complement her tremendous ground game with some serious versatility on her feet.
Dern lands 3.07 significant strikes per minute in her UFC fights. While she's catching a little over that same number in return, her higher volume output makes her more likely to win the fight on the scorecards if things end up going that way.
More importantly, Dern's jiu-jitsu is unquestionably better than the former Invicta FC champ. If the fight ends up there, she'll have that advantage, too.
Back Dern by any method at -186 (bet $100 to win $53.76)
Better Value
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Is anybody having a better year than middleweight contender Kevin Holland? The 28-year-old American enters UFC 256 gunning for his fifth win of the year, and he appears a solid bet to do it.
Holland is longer, leaner and younger than Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, and he's riding a four-fight win streak.
Not only does Holland throw more accurate strikes in higher volume than Souza, but the American's nine-inch reach advantage and 54 percent takedown defense should help him keep things there as long as he wants.
Having lost two fights in a row entering UFC 256, Souza would appear to be on the verge of cut consideration, assuming UFC president Dana White does indeed go through with cutting up to 60 fighters from his roster within the next few weeks.
The 41-year-old is a legend of the sport, but that kind of history seldom helps someone ward off the next generation's stars.
Back Holland by any method at -124
Best Value
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Sometimes, a fighter's best days are just long gone.
One might reasonably assume that's the case when looking at Ferguson's last fight. The 36-year-old entered UFC 249 in May on a 12-fight win streak. But the American left the Octagon that night with a stoppage loss to Justin Gaethje, and there are plenty of reasons to wonder now whether his best days are far behind him.
Statistically, Ferguson is the better striker entering the fight, whereas Oliveira, his short-notice opponent, appears to have the edge grappling. Obviously, the information at UFC Stats will never tell the whole story. After all, Ferguson has a strong ground game, too. And Oliveira? He's no punk on his feet, either.
But Oliveira is five years younger than Ferguson, on a seven-fight win-streak and seemingly one big win away from gaining some massive fights.
Look, Ferguson's popularity with fans will likely keep him the favorite in this fight, even though he should probably be somewhere around even money.
That's exactly what makes Oliveira the fighter to back in this spot, and the Brazilian should probably be considered the best value on the board at UFC 256.
Back Oliveira by any method at +138 (bet $100 to win $138)
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Bonus Big-Money Pick
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When looking for a bonus big-money pick, there's a process to follow.
The first thing to look for is a bookie's line that's way off either because of bookmaker error (unlikely) or because the public money skews the line way more than is reasonable.
When those two things fail, the next best option is to look for a reasonable gamble based on some passable logic.
Such is the case here.
Ciryl Gane is one of the best-looking heavyweight prospects in the sport. But jumping all the way up from beating Tanner Boser to former heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos in a must-win fight for the veteran is a big enough leap up in competition that it might turn out to be too much for him.
On top of that, Dos Santos is badly in need of a win. He's lost three straight to some good fighters, and he might be ready to buck the trend against Gane.
It's a least worth a shot with a small stake.
Back Dos Santos by any method at +300
Odds via DraftKings. Unless otherwise noted, all stats via UFC Stats.
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