Taking an Early Look at the 8 Possible College Football Playoff Scenarios
Not to put the cart before the horse, but it is unlikely Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson or Ohio State will lose in Week 15. Notre Dame and Clemson are idle. Ohio State's game against Michigan was canceled. And Alabama is a massive favorite at Arkansas.
Thus, unless one of the biggest upsets in the past decade of college football is on the horizon, those four teams are going to enter conference championship weekend in pole position of the College Football Playoff chase.
That means the ACC and SEC championships and the next Ohio State game—whether it's in the Big Ten championship against Northwestern or in a non-championship game against the Wisconsin-Iowa winner—are going to determine which teams play for the national championship.
But there are eight possible combinations in which those three games could play out, and today we're going to forecast what the selection committee would do with each of those scenarios.
Before we dive in: I don't think it matters if Ohio State plays for the Big Ten title. The Buckeyes are still going to face a team likely ranked in the Nos. 13-20 range with a chance to prove they belong in the Top Four. Whether they get to claim a conference championship shouldn't make a difference to the selection committee.
The real curveball has less to do with Ohio State and more to do with No. 12 Indiana. If the Hoosiers win the Big Ten championship while Ohio State and Clemson lose Dec. 19, maybe there's a path for them.
Another asterisk to consider is the possibility of Florida losing to LSU this weekend or Texas A&M or Cincinnati losing to Tennessee or Tulsa on Dec. 19. With all these scenarios, though, we're assuming the favorites emerge victorious from those three games. There are probably paths for the Gators to still sneak in if they lose to the Tigers and then beat Alabama in the SEC championship, but you could remove the Aggies and Bearcats from these hypotheticals if they were to lose.
On that note, let's get to it.
Scenario A: Alabama beats Florida, Ohio State wins, Clemson beats Notre Dame
This is the scenario I think we've all been projecting since the preseason. Some of us had Georgia in the SEC title game instead of Florida, but either way, those of us in the bowl prognostication business have been prepared for this outcome for a while.
This scenario would most likely result in No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl and No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson in the Rose Bowl. Perhaps the Tigers would supplant the Buckeyes for the No. 2 seed if they beat the Fighting Irish convincingly, but all that would change is the jersey colors for the Rose Bowl.
Scenario B: Alabama beats Florida, Ohio State wins, Notre Dame beats Clemson
While we've been assuming a full-strength Clemson playing on a "neutral" field in Charlotte, North Carolina, will avenge its double-overtime loss at Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish could win that rematch. And if that happens, the No. 4 seed will be up for grabs.
If No. 5 Texas A&M beats Tennessee next weekend—it should—the Aggies would probably be the top candidate for that spot. But there are four others with viable claims.
The sentimental favorite is Cincinnati. The undefeated Bearcats are already the highest-ranked Group of Five team in CFP history, but maybe they could leapfrog the Aggies. They have one game remaining against 6-1 Tulsa in the AAC championship.
The Golden Hurricane are ranked No. 24 and have looked good this season, but if Cincinnati drills them, it might knock Tulsa out of the Top 25 and make that win look less impressive. Then again, if Cincinnati doesn't blow out Tulsa, it will raise questions about the Bearcats' legitimacy. Damned if you do; damned if you don't. If Cincy wins, though, it belongs in the hunt.
The significantly less sentimental favorite is two-loss Iowa State. We already wrote off the Big 12 like two months ago, but the Cyclones are sitting at No. 7 with a game remaining against No. 11 Oklahoma. If they can beat the Sooners for a second time, they're going to have an argument for a playoff spot. However, it's hard to imagine a team that lost by 17 to Louisiana would get in ahead of one-loss Texas A&M or undefeated Cincinnati.
The other two are Florida and Clemson, depending on how bad they look in defeat.
Texas A&M is ranked ahead of Florida and has a head-to-head win over the Gators, but if Kyle Trask and Co. were to take Alabama to overtime before falling short, that would carry a lot of weight with the selection committee. I don't know if it would explicitly discuss this, but it would sort of boil down to: Which team would you rather watch play Alabama a second time? And A&M barely bothered to show up for its 28-point loss to the Crimson Tide.
I can't make a great case for Clemson getting in with two losses, considering its only noteworthy win came at home against Miami. But the committee always seems to hold the Tigers in high regard, and I don't know about you, but I'd rather watch Alabama-Clemson Part V than an all-SEC semifinal.
My guess is it would be Alabama at No. 1, Notre Dame at No. 2, Ohio State at No. 3 and Texas A&M at No. 4, but this would be the most hotly and widely debated decision for the final spot in the playoff's brief history.
Scenario C: Alabama beats Florida, Ohio State loses, Clemson beats Notre Dame
Not only would this scenario definitely set up a No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Notre Dame rubber match, but it would probably also result in an Alabama-Florida or Alabama-Texas A&M rematch in the other semifinal. (Based on our Scenario B conclusion, the assumption would be Texas A&M gets the No. 4 seed.)
But the main point here is that Ohio State is almost certainly out with a loss.
The Buckeyes are 5-0 with four wins against teams that are 2-4 or worse. Their lone game against a quality opponent was a nail-biter against Indiana, in which they gave up 491 passing yards in a seven-point home win.
There's already an argument that Ohio State doesn't belong in the Top Four. Selection committee chairman Gary Barta said during last week's Top 25 reveal that there was a lot of discussion about Ohio State and Texas A&M for the No. 4 spot. So if the Buckeyes lose next weekend, it's hard to imagine they would stay at No. 4. I would even assume they'd also drop below undefeated Cincinnati, which would be a fun little recruiting pitch for former Ohio State head coach Luke Fickell.
Scenario D: Alabama beats Florida, Ohio State loses, Notre Dame beats Clemson
Here's where things start to get wacky.
In this scenario, you've got two stone-cold locks in Alabama at No. 1 and Notre Dame at No. 2. But where does the committee go from there?
We've already written off Clemson and Ohio State if they lose, but Clemson probably holds a head-to-head edge if they both go down. The Tigers are ranked ahead of the Buckeyes, and a loss to Notre Dame would be less embarrassing than a loss to whichever Big Ten West opponent Ohio State faces.
Now, if Clemson loses by 35 and Ohio State loses in close, controversial fashion, that would probably change things. But, for argument's sake, Clemson edges Ohio State for now.
The Tigers would certainly fall behind Texas A&M, though, so this would likely get the Aggies up to the No. 3 seed. And from there, it's a four-way debate between Clemson, Florida, Iowa State and Cincinnati for the No. 4 seed.
(Note that I don't have USC, Indiana or Northwestern in that equation, even assuming USC goes a perfect 6-0 and Indiana or Northwestern finishes 7-1 with a Big Ten championship. Both could vault into the Top Eight, but climbing all the way to No. 4 isn't feasible unless Texas A&M and Cincinnati lose next weekend. Short of that, they have too many rungs to climb and not enough time to make that ascension.)
If Florida loses a competitive game against Alabama, the Gators would likely hold a slight edge—even though that would mean a CFP with three SEC teams and one independent wearing an ACC costume. If you're in the camp of folks who are clamoring for an expanded playoff, this scenario could be the catalyst that most enrages the non-SEC Power Five commissioners.
Florida is in no way a lock for that No. 4 seed, though, as I think the selection committee would have a hard time excluding Cincinnati.
Putting in both a one-loss team that didn't play for a conference championship and a two-loss non-champion ahead of an undefeated team with a significant stockpile of quality wins (Tulsa, UCF, Army, SMU and Memphis) would lead to a revolt.
As much as we whined for UCF in 2017 and 2018, the Knights didn't deserve to get in either year. In 2017, they twice struggled at home in their only wins against opponents of value. Their schedule strength was probably even worse the following year. And there was a strong Top Four from the power conferences in both seasons, so it didn't much matter anyway.
However, Cincinnati flexed serious muscle this season, and we're talking about a scenario in which only two teams currently ranked in the Top Six win a Power Five championship. If Cincinnati can't get in like this, we might as well drop the charade and stop including Group of Five teams in the CFP rankings at all.
But I digress. My projection for this scenario is No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Florida and No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Texas A&M. Going one step further on this one, it's probably Iowa State at No. 5, Clemson at No. 6 and Cincinnati at No. 7.
Scenario E: Florida beats Alabama, Ohio State wins, Clemson beats Notre Dame
This would probably be the selection committee's biggest nightmare.
While some of the scenarios are difficult to figure out because it's hard to decide which team is most deserving of the No. 4 seed, the challenge here is trying to explain which of the five excellent candidates most deserves to be the fifth wheel.
But I'm fairly certain Notre Dame would be the team left out.
Ohio State and Clemson would obviously be in. The Buckeyes would probably get the No. 1 seed as the only undefeated team in the bunch with the Tigers likely locking down the No. 2 seed. We can argue about that order at a later date, if necessary.
As long as Alabama doesn't lose to Arkansas this weekend, I can't imagine a scenario in which the Crimson Tide would be left out of the playoff. It doesn't matter if it was a down year for the SEC; you don't go 10-0 in that conference and then finish outside the Top Four because of a single loss to a great team. Maybe they'd slip to No. 4, but not to No. 5.
If Florida wins the SEC championship, there's no way the Gators are drawing the short straw, either. They'd probably jump to No. 3, perhaps even leapfrogging Clemson to No. 2, depending on which of those teams looks more dominant Dec. 19. As we've mentioned previously, though, the No. 2 vs. No. 3 debate is meaningless unless you're really into jersey colors.
And that leaves Notre Dame—despite its 10-0 start—to play in the Orange Bowl as the No. 5 seed.
That would be terrible for the Fighting Irish, but their resume just isn't that strong. The Thanksgiving weekend win at North Carolina was impressive, but they didn't play Miami or NC State and narrowly won a home game against short-handed Clemson. Alabama was more dominant against a more difficult schedule, and the selection committee isn't going to take a one-loss runner-up ahead of any of these three conference champions.
The verdict: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Alabama in the Rose Bowl; No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Florida in the Sugar Bowl.
Scenario F: Florida beats Alabama, Ohio State wins, Notre Dame beats Clemson
This one's pretty cut and dried: Notre Dame gets the No. 1 seed, Ohio State gets the No. 2 seed and then it's Florida and Alabama in some order in the other two spots.
Considering Florida would hold a head-to-head victory and the SEC championship, the assumption is that the Gators would get the No. 3 seed and the Crimson Tide the No. 4 seed. But it would be pretty cool if the selection committee called up Dan Mullen and asked him if he'd rather face Notre Dame or Ohio State, because I think Florida would prefer to draw Notre Dame. (This wouldn't happen, just to be clear.)
Then again, if the Gators can beat Alabama on a neutral field, they're probably ready for anyone.
Scenario G: Florida beats Alabama, Ohio State loses, Clemson beats Notre Dame
The Top Four here is definitely the two ACC and two SEC teams, but the order would make for an interesting debate.
Could Florida jump all the way from No. 6 to No. 1?
All eight of Florida's wins have come by double digits, and its lone loss was on a last-second field goal on the road against the No. 5 team. Add an SEC championship to that resume and hand both Ohio State and Notre Dame a loss, and I'm fully on board with the Gators as the No. 1 seed. The rest of the order would likely be Clemson at No. 2, Alabama at No. 3 and Notre Dame at No. 4.
If the selection committee is unwilling to vault Florida to the top spot, though, that probably means rematches of both conference championships with Clemson vs. Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl and Florida vs. Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
Scenario H: Florida beats Alabama, Ohio State loses, Notre Dame beats Clemson
Fitting for this one to be Scenario H, as it represents all hell breaking loose on championship weekend.
Notre Dame would clearly get the No. 1 seed, while Florida and Alabama would square off again as the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds.
And with the No. 4 seed, I suppose we're back to Texas A&M. To reiterate a previous point, though, I'd love to see it go to Cincinnati rather than to a third SEC team. The Bearcats are behind the Aggies for now, but their remaining game against 6-1 Tulsa is more noteworthy than Texas A&M's remaining game against 2-6 Tennessee. Cincinnati would also be a conference champion and undefeated, neither of which A&M could boast.
In summation, the Top Eight in the College Football Playoff rankings include the only viable candidates for the playoff, and it's probably really only the Top Six unless Texas A&M loses. However, there are a bunch of different potential combinations of those teams depending on how the three marquee championship games go.
But if you're rooting for a playoff devoid of Alabama, you're going to be sorely disappointed.
Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.
.jpg?w=600 "Offseason Moves for Every Team 👉")
.png?w=600 "New NBA Mock Draft 📝")
