Undefeated Steelers, Winless Jets and Updated Playoff Look After Week 11
Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, there have been two undefeated regular seasons and four winless campaigns. But only one team has gone 16-0, only two have gone 0-16, and none of those developments took place simultaneously.
That could change in 2020 as one team moved to 10-0 on the same day another fell to 0-10.
Let's take a closer look at those two extremes and then break down almost everything in between with an updated picture of the 2020 playoff race.
Can the Steelers Run the Table?
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For the first time in franchise history, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 10-0 following an easy 27-3 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars on the 11th Sunday of the 2020 NFL season. Can they make a run at 16-0? The path exists, but it's quite treacherous.
Week 12: Baltimore Ravens—The Ravens have been defeated in three of their last four games, a run that started with a loss to the Steelers at home. Now they have to travel to Pittsburgh on just three days' rest. The Steelers have opened as a small favorite.
Week 13: Washington Football Team—The Thanksgiving game in Week 12 means the Steelers will have extra time to rest and prepare for a home game against Washington, which is 3-7 and has lost six straight road games. This should be a double-digit-point spread in favor of Pittsburgh.
Week 14: at Buffalo Bills—The Bills are 7-3 and extremely likely to put up a fight here at home. This looks like a toss-up right now, but a lot can change in three weeks.
Week 15: at Cincinnati Bengals—After falling to 2-7-1 Sunday, Cincy looks as though it is toast for 2020 with both Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon hurt. Pittsburgh won the first meeting 36-10, and there's no reason to believe this won't be another blowout.
Week 16: Indianapolis Colts—You never know which Colts team is going to show up, but Indy is strong enough in the trenches to resist Pittsburgh's aggressive defense and keep this interesting.
Week 17: at Cleveland Browns—If the Steelers keep it going this long, the big question will be whether they rest key players in this spot. Of course, it's possible the Kansas City Chiefs could make this game matter if they're 14-1 heading into Week 17. Regardless, beating the Browns on the road won't be easy even if Pittsburgh isn't voluntarily shorthanded.
So, four pretty tough games await the Steelers, who have already cut it close against Baltimore, the Dallas Cowboys, the Tennessee Titans and even the Denver Broncos this season. There's still a strong chance they drop a game or two down the stretch.
Another interesting thought: If they do finish 16-0 as the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs win 14 or 15 games, would the Steelers even enter the playoffs as the Super Bowl favorite? It helps that they'd be the only AFC team with a first-round bye and that they'd have home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, but DraftKings gave the Chiefs better Super Bowl odds than the Steelers after Week 10.
Will the Jets Do the Opposite?
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Meanwhile, following another loss—this time at the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers—the New York Jets have fallen to 0-10. Could they join the 2017 Cleveland Browns and the 2008 Detroit Lions to become the third 0-16 team in league history? Here's the path.
Week 12: Miami Dolphins—It's a divisional game at home, and Miami is coming off a dud performance, so this shouldn't be marked as an L in permanent marker. The Jets have had some fight in them recently, and head coach Adam Gase will likely be fired up to get back at his former team after the Dolphins beat the Jets 24-0 last month.
Week 13: Las Vegas Raiders—Vegas has an efficient offense and an improving defense and is in the playoff race, but this could easily be a road trap for Jon Gruden's team.
Week 14: at Seattle Seahawks—Don't expect Seattle to trip up at home here. New York's pass defense is unlikely to hang with Russell Wilson.
Week 15: at Los Angeles Rams—It's a similar situation here on the road against a team that will be fighting for playoff positioning.
Week 16: Cleveland Browns—That's five consecutive pretty clear mismatches against teams that are in the race, but at least this one is at home.
Week 17: at New England Patriots—This is pretty intriguing. Imagine if the Jets are 0-15 here and the Pats have nothing to play for because they're out of the playoff race. I still doubt Bill Belichick would totally phone it in against a bitter rival with nothing to lose.
Midway through this season, the Jets were on pace to post the worst scoring margin in NFL history. But they nearly beat the Patriots before their Week 10 bye, and it wasn't a complete embarrassment in L.A. on Sunday as the offense scored three touchdowns in the second half to prevent the Bolts from pulling away.
There's still some talent up front on defense, and both Gase and Sam Darnold could be fighting for their jobs when the young quarterback returns from a shoulder injury. Darnold has finished seasons strong in the past, so it wouldn't be shocking if he were to get healthy and hot for even a week or two down the stretch.
Don't be surprised if the Jets win a game or two, but they should still be on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick come early January.
The AFC Playoff Picture Is Deeeeeeep
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And so here's where we're at ahead of Thanksgiving in the AFC...
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0)
Again, they should probably be expected to lose a game or two. The question is whether that might cost them the top seed.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)
Following a Sunday Night Football victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, the defending champs have essentially locked up the AFC West. They've lost just one game in the last calendar year. That being said, they still have to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints and Dolphins on the road. It won't be an easy ride.
3. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
Inconsistency could be a concern for a team that has scored just seven more points than it has allowed, but a 4-0 divisional record leaves the Bills in very good shape to earn their first home playoff game this century.
4. Indianapolis Colts (7-3)
Back-to-back huge victories over the Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers have the Colts in the driver's seat in the AFC South, but the margin for error is minuscule. After a massive Week 12 matchup with Tennessee, they'll still have to deal with road games against the Las Vegas Raiders (Week 14) and Steelers (Week 16).
5. Tennessee Titans (7-3)
A big win over the Ravens on Sunday allowed them to keep pace with the Colts, but they need to win in Indianapolis next Sunday. The schedule isn't too daunting, but they're only at home twice more this season.
6. Cleveland Browns (7-3)
To their credit, the Browns aren't going away despite plenty of adversity. Consecutive home wins have them in the wild-card mix, and the schedule is a mixed bag the rest of the way. It would help if they could beat another contender such as Tennessee (Week 13), Baltimore (Week 14) or Pittsburgh (Week 17).
7. Las Vegas Raiders (6-4)
Tough Week 11 loss for the Raiders, who had won three in a row before running into the defending champions. Still, the two games they have left against teams with winning records come at home. It's a very forgiving home-stretch schedule.
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8. Baltimore Ravens (6-4)
Hard to believe they've now lost twice as many games in 2020 as they did in 2019. The division is likely a lost cause now that they've been defeated in three of their last four games, and they're in rough shape ahead of upcoming road matchups with Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
9. Miami Dolphins (6-4)
It's not ideal to have a quarterback controversy of sorts at Thanksgiving, and now Miami has to prove that a five-game midseason winning streak wasn't a fluke. Against the Chiefs, New England Patriots, Raiders and Bills in the last four weeks, that won't be easy.
10. Denver Broncos (4-6)
They're hanging by a thread after a Week 11 victory over Miami, but the Broncos still have to meet the Saints, Chiefs, Bills and Raiders. It's not happening in 2020.
11. New England Patriots (4-6)
You never want to count Bill Belichick out, but that Week 11 loss to the Houston Texans might have spelled the end. They're in rough shape and they still have to face the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, Dolphins and Bills. The Chargers on the road won't be an easy out either. Their Week 17 meeting with the Jets might not matter.
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The NFC Playoff Picture Is Top-Heavy
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As for the NFC...
1. New Orleans Saints (8-2)
The Saints lost Drew Brees and yet are now alone atop the conference totem pole thanks to a dominant defensive performance in Week 11. They've now won six consecutive games without Brees the last two seasons, they own the tiebreaker over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the schedule is pretty light the rest of the way.
2. Seattle Seahawks (7-3)
That was a big rebound win over the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday night, but the Seahawks aren't out of the woods yet. The good news is they have just one more game against a team that has a winning record.
3. Green Bay Packers (7-3)
They've now lost three of six, and there are obvious issues with turnovers, run defense and special teams. But they still have a large edge in the NFC North and a win over the Saints under their belt. Don't count them out.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1)
This has become a sick joke. Carson Wentz is one of the lowest-rated quarterbacks in football and the Eagles have just three wins in 10 games, but they still lead the NFC East by half a game. The big concern is there are three teams breathing down their neck. Regardless, the wild-card team that winds up in the fifth spot will likely be a heavy road favorite to start the playoffs.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3)
Right now, that team is Tampa Bay. The Bucs are a game back of the Saints in the NFC South race ahead of a Monday night matchup with the Los Angeles Rams and a Week 12 meeting with the Chiefs. If New Orleans stumbles without Brees and the Bucs keep winning, that race will get really intense.
6. Los Angeles Rams (6-3)
A victory over the Bucs on Monday night would move them back into a first-place tie with Seattle atop the NFC West. They play the Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals three times in their last five games.
7. Arizona Cardinals (6-4)
The Cards were really coming on before falling to Seattle on Thursday night. Those two remaining matchups with the Rams will likely decide their fate for this season.
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8. Chicago Bears (5-5)
A fifth consecutive loss Sunday night in Green Bay would likely mean lights out for the 2020 Bears season. They also host the Packers in Week 17, so the Bears actually control their own destiny right now.
9. Minnesota Vikings (4-6)
That was a back-breaking loss to the Dallas Cowboys. It's probably over unless they run the table, but they still have to travel to Tampa and New Orleans.
10. Detroit Lions (4-6)
They'll enter December without a win in the division and with a brutal post-Thanksgiving schedule. Goodnight, Lions.
11. San Francisco 49ers (4-6)
The 49ers are far too depleted to keep pace in the best division in the NFL.
12. Carolina Panthers (4-7)
Only included because we have to mention the following three teams, the Panthers technically remained alive with a Week 11 win over Detroit but don't have the talent to fully recover from a midseason five-game losing streak.
13. New York Giants (3-7)
Only included because they're a half-game out in their division, the Giants are the only team in the NFC East with three divisional wins under their belt.
14. Dallas Cowboys (3-7)
Only included because they're a half-game out in their division, the Cowboys kept the dream alive with a surprising Week 11 victory over Minnesota.
15. Washington Football Team (3-7)
Only included because they're a half-game out in their division, Washington is unlikely to survive a three-game road trip starting on Thanksgiving Day. Then again, anything can happen in the NFC East.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012. Follow him on Twitter: @Brad_Gagnon.
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