College Football Odds Week 12: Picks Against the Spread and Score Predictions

The front-runners to face off in the Big Ten Championship Game will be determined Saturday.

The Ohio State Buckeyes take on an unlikely challenger in the Big Ten East in the form of the Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana has knocked off the Michigan Wolverines and Penn State Nittany Lions, who were expected to be top contenders in the Big Ten East, and have one more massive hill to climb to reach the peak of the division.

Over in the Big Ten West, the Wisconsin Badgers are the established power taking on a worthy challenger in the Northwestern Wildcats. Northwestern reeled off three one-score victories to set up the clash of undefeated programs, but it is viewed as the weaker team on the spread.

Wisconsin is much less favored at seven points than Ohio State at 20.5, but both teams have the offenses to blow away their challengers and move a step closer to a December 19 showdown in Indianapolis.

Week 12 Schedule

Thursday, November 19

Tulane at No. 25 Tulsa (-6.5) (7:30 p.m., ESPN)

Saturday, November 21

No. 9 Indiana at No. 3 Ohio State (-20.5) (Noon, Fox)

No. 4 Clemson (-35.5) at Florida State (Noon, ABC)

No. 6 Florida (-31.5) at Vanderbilt (Noon, ESPN)

Appalachian State at No. 15 Coastal Carolina (-5.5) (Noon, ESPN2)

North Alabama at No. 8 BYU (-47.5) (3 p.m., ESPN3)

No. 7 Cincinnati (-5.5) at UCF (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

No. 10 Wisconsin (-7.5) at No. 19 Northwestern (3:30 p.m., ABC)

UCLA at No. 11 Oregon (-13.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)

Kentucky at No. 1 Alabama (-30) (4 p.m., SEC Network)

Kansas State at No. 17 Iowa State (-11) (4 p.m., Fox)

Tennessee at No. 23 Auburn (-11) (7 p.m., ESPN)

Mississippi State at No. 13 Georgia (-24.5) (7:30 p.m., SEC Network)

No. 14 Oklahoma State at No. 18 Oklahoma (-7) (7:30 p.m., ABC)

No. 21 Liberty at NC State (-3.5) (7:30 p.m., ESPN3)

No. 20 USC (-3) at Utah (10:30 p.m., ESPN)

All times ET. Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Predictions

No. 9 Indiana at No. 3 Ohio State (-20.5)

Ohio State's average margin of victory is close to three points more than the spread set for Saturday's Big Ten East showdown at Ohio Stadium.

The Buckeyes defeated the Nebraska Cornhuskers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights and Penn State by an average of 23.3 points, and their two home triumphs were by more than 20 points.

A year ago, Ryan Day's side ran all over the Hoosiers in a 41-point victory in Bloomington, Indiana. That was one of four Top 25 losses suffered by Tom Allen's side in 2019. Indiana reversed that form to start the 2020 season with wins over ranked Penn State and Michigan sides, but those results have to be examined for what they actually are: victories over two bad teams.

Ohio State's offense presents a tougher multi-faceted challenge for Indiana's defense to contain, starting with Justin Fields at quarterback.

Fields has 13 total touchdowns, 11 of which occurred through the air, and he completed 86.7 percent of his 83 passing attempts. The Buckeyes also have a two-pronged rushing attack in Master Teague III and Trey Sermon that could hurt Indiana's front seven on every down.

Indiana has some nice offensive weapons in quarterback Michael Penix Jr., running back Stevie Scott and wide receivers Ty Fryfogle and Whop Philyor.

If Fryfogle and Philyor perform well in the first half against Shaun Wade and the Ohio State secondary, Indiana may be able to keep up with the Buckeyes, or at least cover.

However, Ohio State has been able to contain one aspect of opposing offenses in 2020. It held Rutgers' Noah Vedral to 168 passing yards, Penn State to 44 rushing yards and Nebraska's two quarterbacks to 160 yards through the air.

If Ohio State flashes the same containment Saturday, it can set up Fields and Co. to create a large advantage on the scoreboard and win by the three scores required to cover the spread.

Wisconsin (-7.5) at Northwestern

First place in the Big Ten West could come down to which team has the more explosive quarterback.

Graham Mertz produced 375 passing yards and seven touchdowns in his first two games for Wisconsin, while Northwestern's Peyton Ramsey had six touchdowns and four interceptions in two more contests.

Mertz's completion percentage is also nine points better than what Ramsey produced, and the Wildcats signal-caller has not completed more than 70 percent of his attempts since the opening win over the Maryland Terrapins.

If Mertz hits his targets at a highly accurate rate, he may produce a few more scoring drives than Ramsey. And if the Badgers need to provide support for their quarterback, they can do so with an abundance of running backs. They have six rushing scores in two weeks compared to eight out of Northwestern in four matchups.

While Northwestern's defense held each of its four opponents to a maximum of 20 points, and it has allowed 301.8 yards per game. Wisconsin leads the FBS with 218.5 yards conceded per contest.

If Pat Fitzgerald's team concedes a similar amount Saturday, it could get stuck behind by double digits, especially if Mertz is as accurate as he was against the Illinois Fighting Illini and Michigan.

Wisconsin may not win by the same margin as Ohio State, but it has the talent to overpower its opponent and feel comfortable with a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter.

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.

---

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).

21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.