MLB MVP 2020: Final Predictions for AL and NL Awards

The 2020 MLB Awards will reach a conclusion on Thursday with the announcement of the Most Valuable Player Award winners in both the National League and American League.

Each of the last three days has seen victors crowned in the Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year and Cy Young categories.

The NL and AL Cy Young voting was announced Wednesday, with Cincinnati Reds right-hander Trevor Bauer becoming the first pitcher in franchise history to win the award and Cleveland Indians ace Shane Bieber taking home honors by way of a unanimous vote.

Now, baseball fans will wait to see which of MLB's brightest will capture the MVP in their respective leagues. Can Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Mookie Betts become just the second player to capture the award in both leagues? Will Jose Ramirez be selected as the first Cleveland Indian to win the AL MVP since Al Rosen in 1953?

These questions will be answered on Thursday. For now, here are some predictions as to who might take home the hardware.

Predictions for NL MVP  

Eric Gay/Associated Press

Betts is joined by Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman and San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado as the three finalists for the award.

Mookie slashed .292/.366/.562 with 16 homers and 10 stolen bases while also winning his fifth consecutive Gold Glove Award. The 28-year-old led all of baseball in bWAR, per Baseball Reference, consistently displaying his excellence all the way through L.A.'s World Series victory.

Whereas Betts led baseball in bWAR, Freeman (along with Ramirez) led all players in fWAR, per FanGraphs. This is quite impressive considering FanGraphs usually punishes first basemen for positioning. While Baseball Reference has him below Betts in WAR, Freeman actually ranks ahead of Mookie in win probability added (WPA) and is second behind only Mike Yastrzemski.

The 31-year-old slashed an absurd .341/.462/.640 with 13 homers and 53 RBI. Freeman led MLB in runs scored (51) and doubles (23), trailing just Juan Soto in weighted runs created plus (wRC+), per FanGraphs. He also anchored Atlanta's lineup in a year when both Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies missed time.

Some fans might have been slightly surprised Machado was named a finalist over infield mate Fernando Tatis Jr. But Machado also had an exceptional year for the Friars, slashing .304/.370/.580 with 16 homers, 47 RBI and six stolen bases. He also ranked in a tie for fourth in terms of outs above average (OAA) the hot corner, per Baseball Savant.

With all due respect to Machado, this award probably comes down to Betts and Freeman. While Mookie will be looking to make history, it is hard to ignore the prolific season Freeman had as the unquestioned leader of the Braves.   

Prediction: Freeman wins NL MVP   

Predictions for AL MVP   

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

As previously mentioned, Ramirez tied with Freeman atop the fWAR leaderboard, per FanGraphs. He did so thanks to a torrid September.

Ramirez slashed .366/.453/.841 with 10 homers in the month, finishing the year with 17 homers, 10 stolen bases and a .993 OPS. The Indians had one of the worst offensive lineups in baseball, but Ramirez was a consistent run-producer and dynamo in the middle of the order.

However, Cleveland's superstar faces stiff competition in Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu and New York Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu. 

Abreu had a career year for a White Sox team that made the playoffs for the first time since 2008. He led baseball in RBI (60) and total bases (148) while leading the AL in hits (76) and slugging percentage (.617). Abreu clubbed 19 homers, and he also ranked fourth in wRC+, per FanGraphs. 

LeMahieu led the AL in wRC+ and once again paced an injury-riddled Yankee team. The 32-year-old won his second batting title, hitting .364 and leading the AL in on-base percentage (.421), OPS (1.011) and OPS+ (177). LeMahieu played multiple positions for the Bronx Bombers, who desperately needed his versatility given the number of injuries they sustained.

The award could go to any of the three players, but Abreu might have the slight edge. In addition to the above statistics, the 33-year-old was the only one of the three players to rank in the top 10 in WPA, and he was also the only one to play all 60 games.   

Prediction: Abreu wins AL MVP   

All stats obtained via Baseball Reference, unless otherwise noted.