Adam Kramer's College Football Locks and Top Bets for Week 10
We're on a heater. There's no other way to describe the past few weeks. And as we welcome more teams back to college football—we missed you dearly, #MACtion and Pac-12 schools—the betting options and selections are once again expanding.
That won't change the philosophy for our weekly pick segment. And we hope it won't shift the results. In the past two weeks, we're 13-5 against the spread. Locks of the Week, our spotlighted selections, are 7-3. Insert polite applause here.
We weren't as sharp in Week 9 as we were in Week 8, but we still delivered an overall record of 6-3 against the spread. For the year, we are now 22-13. So far, so good. But I am not satisfied. You shouldn't be either.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Before we move to our Week 10 selections, let's revisit the good and the bad from the week that was.
The Good, Teams from Virginia: Last week, we told you that Virginia would not only cover as a touchdown underdog against North Carolina but that the Cavaliers were also live on the moneyline. I also picked West Virginia as a four-point favorite over Kansas State. The Virginia game was a roller coaster; West Virginia cruised. Different rides, both winners.
The Bad, Syracuse (and Western Kentucky's Overall Discipline): The worst pick of the past week was unquestionably Syracuse. I thought there was value against Wake Forest, and that value fell apart in the second half. The most frustrating selection, however, was Western Kentucky against BYU. Getting 28.5 points felt solid. Then the Hilltoppers delivered nearly 100 penalty yards, got called for targeting multiple times and shot themselves in the foot repeatedly. I had some choice words for my television.
Onward and upward. Here are the Week 10 selections, using point spreads provided by DraftKings.
Michigan (-3.5) at Indiana
I get it. You think head coach Jim Harbaugh has underwhelmed. Many of you are probably tired of his act. You question whether he can truly break through at Michigan and why he can't regularly beat any of his program's rivals. All valid criticisms and concerns. In many ways, I'm with you.
I'm not here to endorse Harbaugh as Michigan's savior. I am here to win you money, and the smart money will be on the Wolverines this week.
Yes, I know it's hard to see beyond last week's loss to Michigan State. Friends, it was bad. But I still like what I've seen from Joe Milton at quarterback, and this feels like a situation in which we will wildly overreact to one really bad loss. (Again, it was bad.)
That's even easier to do with Indiana, a really nice team off to a great start. The Hoosiers are a great story. They'll continue to win games this year. I just don't think it'll be this week.
Let 'em rip in the comment section. I get it, and I can take it. I've heard worse.
Michigan 34, Indiana 24.
Texas A&M at South Carolina (Over 55.5)
Somewhat quietly, Texas A&M has blossomed into the program we thought it could become. Now, is this $75 million in results? Not yet, although there are reasons to believe that head coach Jimbo Fisher has momentum.
Enter a curious game against South Carolina, which is coming off a much-needed bye. Not only do I believe this game has the chance to be close—BONUS PICK ALERT—I also believe it could resemble the game we saw Texas A&M and Arkansas play last Saturday.
That matchup produced 73 points (and also an outstanding backdoor cover for the Razorbacks). And with the Aggies playing on the road, it wouldn't shock me to see a refreshed and recharged South Carolina hit the 30-point mark.
If that's the case, we need just four touchdowns from Aggies. They've averaged 37 points per game over the past three. If A&M hits that here, the over should be in play.
Iowa (-6.5) vs. Michigan State
Last weekend’s Michigan-Michigan State game is featured prominently in Locks, and I'm backing Iowa for the second consecutive Saturday. Thus far, backing Iowa has not been a good strategy. The Hawkeyes started strong against Northwestern in Week 9 before fading late.
But this is the kind of aggressive spread I like. While Michigan State rallied after losing woefully to Rutgers in its first game…it still lost woefully to Rutgers in its first game.
Also, for regulars of this weekly staple, you know how much we love to play the hangover angle. In this instance, after an enormous win against its rival, it would not be shocking to see Michigan State come out flat.
Iowa has talent. That talent has flashed at times over the past few weeks. The problem has been putting that talent into meaningful results. (Or, what we're striving for here, covers.) That will change this week against Michigan State.
And if not, the Hawkeyes are on a two-week ban from this column. Promise.
California (-1.5) vs. Washington
Of course, the Pac-12 has real estate in this week's installment. We're welcoming back the conference with open arms, delicious smoked meats and full Solo cups. While many will turn their focus to Stanford-Oregon, this feels like a great opportunity for an up-and-coming Cal program.
Defensively, Cal has done a complete makeover under head coach Justin Wilcox. It feels odd to say that about a school that regularly played in games with basketball scores, but the offense has actually lagged behind. Still, I really like what I've seen from quarterback Chase Garbers. When healthy—and that's been the issue at times—he's one of the better players in the conference.
Given the changes at Washington, starting at head coach with Jimmy Lake, this feels like a great spot for the Golden Bears after they won four of the last five to end 2019. New year, weird year, etc. But Cal could take a nice leap forward this season, and it starts in game one.
East Carolina (+4.5) vs. Tulane
Not long ago, East Carolina was one of the worst teams in college football. That may seem like an odd thing to say about a squad that is 1-4—implying that the program has turned a corner—but I can tell you, having watched more Pirates football this year than anyone you know, they are much better.
After beating South Florida, East Carolina fell to Navy 27-23 and Tulsa 34-30. That Tulsa loss was largely due to an officiating error that the AAC has already acknowledged. (It won us the over last week, but we didn't feel good about it. That's a lie. It felt wonderful.)
Tulane absolutely manhandled Temple last Saturday, ending its three-game losing streak. In fairness, those three losses came against Houston, SMU and UCF. This is a fun program on the rise, although this is a tricky road game, and the spread aligns with that.
I get the hesitation when it comes to backing a 1-4 team. But trust me, from someone who has watched this team more than anyone should watch this team, the Pirates aren’t that bad. I need more hobbies.
Other Plays That Will Be on the Card
Texas (-6.5) vs. West Virginia: I'll say it again. Texas is not back. This is not an endorsement for Texas being back, nor do we expect Texas to be back anytime soon. But coming off an enormous, thrilling win over Oklahoma State—a victory we called last week—we're running back against a team that made us money in Week 9. Longhorns by double digits.
Colorado State (+3.5) vs. Wyoming: A little Thursday night football action, which we adore around here. Also, this point spread is a bit funky. Wyoming is coming off a nice victory against Hawaii; Colorado State was just handled by Fresno State. We’re going the contrarian route and taking the Rams with the points. Also, play the money line.
Arizona State at USC (Over 58.5): This is a fun, delightful matchup between two young quarterbacks you're going to be hearing a lot more from in months ahead. Kedon Slovis was fantastic for the Trojans last year, and he might be just gifted enough to keep coach Clay Helton employed. Jayden Daniels has the makings of a superstar for Arizona State. The end result should be a fun game with a lot of touchdowns.
Rutgers (+38) vs. Ohio State: Let’s get weird. Although last week we lost while backing an underdog getting nearly 30 points, I'm not shying away from this one. Rutgers is much better. And yes, the Scarlet Knights still lost to Indiana. And yes, Ohio State is going to score a ton of points. But I like what I've seen from the Scarlet Knights under Greg Schiano thus far. Ohio State 50, Rutgers 17. That, my friends, would be good enough.
Adam Kramer covers college football for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @KegsnEggs. Lines accurate as of 4 p.m. ET Wednesday.
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.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
