MLB Players Most Likely to Be Dangled in Trade Talk This Offseason
Now that the 2020-21 Major League Baseball offseason has arrived, it's a good time to get to know the winter's top trade candidates.
We've rounded up 10 players who might not just be the subjects of speculative whispers but who are likely to be actively shopped by their current employers.
We considered players who are either expendable or who have become a financial burden, or some combination of both factors. We ranked them according to their desirability based on their age, contract status and their upside and downside.
Let's count 'em down, starting with the least desirable of the bunch.
10. Ender Inciarte, CF, Atlanta
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Atlanta acquired Ender Inciarte from the Arizona Diamondbacks in December 2015, and his first season with the club went so well that he promptly netted a five-year extension the following December.
The 30-year-old's status in Atlanta looks different now. After compiling a .287 average and winning three Gold Gloves from 2016 to 2018, he's hit only .225 and experienced diminishing returns (i.e., minus-two defensive runs saved) on defense in just 111 games over the last two seasons.
What's more, Atlanta is looking at an immediate future in which it doesn't really need Inciarte. The club could establish an all-homegrown outfield of Ronald Acuna Jr., Cristian Pache and Drew Waters as soon as 2021.
If Atlanta does dangle Inciarte this winter, it will presumably be with a promise to eat some of the $9.7 million he's owed through next season. That could pique the interest of teams that see the veteran as a change-of-scenery candidate.
9. Miguel Andujar, 3B/LF, New York Yankees
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Back in 2018, it looked like Miguel Andujar would be the New York Yankees' third baseman for a long time.
Things have changed. After making a push for the AL Rookie of the Year Award with an .855 OPS and 27 home runs in '18, Andujar missed almost all of 2019 because of a shoulder injury. He was in good health this year but out of a starting job as he made only 65 plate appearances in 21 games.
In all likelihood, Andujar will still be a man without a position if he stays with New York for 2021. Gio Urshela has taken over at third base, while Clint Frazier emerged as the club's top option for left field in 2020.
It would therefore make sense for the Yankees to gauge interest in Andujar on the trade market. Given that he's only 25 years old and under club control through 2024, they might find there are plenty of suitors.
8. J.D. Martinez, DH, Boston Red Sox
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Contrary to last winter, J.D. Martinez is surprising nobody by reportedly choosing to forgo the latest opt-out in his contract with the Boston Red Sox.
When Martinez, 33, declined to use one of the opt-outs in his five-year, $110 million contract after 2019, he was coming off a .939 OPS and 36 home runs. This time, he's fresh off a value-killing season in which he mustered only a .680 OPS and seven homers.
Yet Martinez will have another opt-out decision to make after next season. Considering that he would otherwise earn $19.4 million salaries in 2021 and 2022 and that he also has limited no-trade protection, his trade value is...well, complicated.
But after finishing in last place in the American League East in 2020, the Red Sox might try to offload Martinez's contract anyway. Provided they're willing to eat some money, one club might like the idea of gambling on Martinez to revert into one of baseball's great hitters.
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7. Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants
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The San Francisco Giants darn near made the playoffs by way of a 29-31 record in 2020, in no small part because Brandon Belt reemerged as a star.
The 32-year-old seemed to enter his twilight years via a modest .770 OPS between the 2017 and 2019 seasons. But in 51 games this season, he put up a stellar .309/.425/.591 batting line that was further bolstered by elite peripherals. He was truly one of the game's top hitters.
And yet there are two things that could compel the Giants to seek out takers for Belt this winter.
For one, the fear that he falls back into the twilight of his career might give them a sense of urgency about moving his $17.2 million salary for 2021. For two, the potential removal of the universal designated hitter would create a situation where the Giants would need to play Buster Posey at first so Joey Bart can catch.
6. Wil Myers, RF, San Diego Padres
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Elsewhere in the National League West, 2020 was also a return-to-form season for San Diego Padres slugger Wil Myers.
Following his All-Star breakout in 2016 and subsequent extension in January 2017, Myers was just OK in '17 and 2018 and downright awful in 2019. He struck out 168 times in 490 plate appearances and hit .239 with a .739 OPS—with minus-0.4 rWAR, to boot.
But in 55 games this year, the 29-year-old roared back with a .959 OPS and 15 home runs. With more of that, he would easily earn the $22.5 million salaries he's owed in 2021 and 2022.
Of course, Myers' run through the 2017, 2018 and 2019 seasons might have the Padres feeling wary about whether he is indeed capable of repeating his superb 2020 campaign. That plus their rapidly escalating payroll could lead them to try to sell high on Myers in a trade this winter.
5. Joe Musgrove, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
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With the Pittsburgh Pirates, it's not a question of whether they'll trade anyone this winter. It's how many players will be on their way to new homes.
Of the assets they have, none carries as much intrigue as Joe Musgrove.
The 27-year-old has mostly had an unspectacular career, yet he flashed workhorse potential (170.1 innings pitched) in 2019 and then ace upside in 2020. With the help of a nasty slider that was similar to Yu Darvish's in terms of its speed and movement, Musgrove posted a 3.86 ERA and whiffed 55 batters in 39.2 innings.
The Pirates followed a 93-loss campaign in 2019 with a 41-loss effort in MLB's 60-game season in 2020. They're also sitting on a mediocre farm system. Such things signal a dire need to rebuild, so moving Musgrove and his two remaining seasons of club control is very much in their interest.
4. Josh Hader, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers
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For the past four seasons, Josh Hader has served the Milwaukee Brewers as arguably the best relief pitcher in baseball.
Across 172 appearances, he's accumulated a 2.54 ERA and struck out 380 batters over 223.2 innings. No other reliever has whiffed as many batters since 2017, and his 7.1 rWAR likewise ties him for first among his peers.
Trouble is, the 26-year-old is starting to become expensive. He nabbed a $4.1 million salary in the first of four trips through arbitration this year and is projected to make as much as $5.1 million for 2021. Additional raises will follow in 2022 and 2023.
If they trade Hader this winter, the Brewers can save some money and turn his closing job over to rookie sensation Devin Williams. They might also be motivated to move Hader before his trade value evaporates altogether, which might just happen after his velocity and strikeout rate took turns for the worse in 2020.
3. Lance Lynn, SP, Texas Rangers
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The Texas Rangers opened the 2020 season by winning 10 of their first 19 games, but then came a 12-29 collapse that effectively forced them into rebuilding mode.
Notably, the Rangers traded Mike Minor, Todd Frazier and Robinson Chirinos ahead of the Aug. 31 deadline. Yet they still had only MLB's No. 24 farm system at that point, meaning there's more work to be done.
To this end, the Rangers could move slugger Joey Gallo and Lance Lynn this winter. But whereas they'd be selling low on the former, they'd be selling high on the latter after he came through with a 3.32 ERA and an MLB-high 84 innings in 2020.
Because Lynn is 33 years old and under contract for just one more season, his value only goes so high. But since the final year of his deal pays out just $9.3 million, he should nonetheless be worth a haul of young talent.
2. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs
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As Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic pondered in October, there might be a question of whether the Chicago Cubs will even tender Kris Bryant a contract for 2021.
They probably will. Sure, they might not like the sound of an $18.6 million projected salary for a guy who posted a .644 OPS and 0.3 rWAR in 2020. There's nonetheless a good chance that Bryant bounces back and earns that money in 2021, be it for the Cubs or someone else.
If the Cubs make Bryant, 28, available in trade talks this winter, they'll be banking that other teams like his chances to rediscover his All-Star and MVP-winning form of 2015-2019, in which he averaged a .901 OPS, 28 homers and 4.8 rWAR.
If offers come rolling in, the Cubs would have to determine whether one is preferable to taking an $18.6 million gamble on Bryant in their own right. If there is, he could indeed be sent packing.
1. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland
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When asked in October whether trading shortstop Francisco Lindor is the club's only option for the winter, Cleveland president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said, "No, I don't think I ever take that view."
Yet the stars are certainly aligning for a trade of the four-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glover.
Unless Lindor and Cleveland can hammer out a heretofore elusive agreement on a contract extension, he'll become a free agent after 2021. In the meantime, he's projected to earn as much as $21.5 million through arbitration. At least in theory, that's an uncomfortably large sum for a team with Cleveland's budget.
As far as Lindor's trade value is concerned, the catch is that he's coming off a down year marked by a .750 OPS and 0.8 rWAR. The 26-year-old is nonetheless in the prime of his career and should therefore have enough value for Cleveland to score big in a trade.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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