Week 12 College Football Picks from WhatIfSports.com

Each Monday morning, we will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview are located here .

The inputs to the 10,000 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.



Game of the Week: No. 18 LSU 17 @ No. 24 Mississippi 23

The Southeastern Conference championship game is set, but there is still some meaningful football to be played in the conference. The rest of the SEC race is anybody's guess.

The West Division picture should get a little clearer this weekend as two top 25 teams in our most recent power rankings—Ole Miss and LSU—meet in a battle of teams that were considered contenders to fight for spots in that title game at the start of the year.

The Tigers rebounded from a loss to Alabama on Saturday, but certainly didn't look dominating against Louisiana Tech. They've lost two of their last five games, with both of those losses coming against unbeaten teams (Florida and Alabama), but have suffered at different times during the season from unexpectedly close victories.

LSU relies on a balanced offense and has scored 14 touchdowns through the air and 14 on the ground. The Tigers' rushing attack hasn't opened any eyes as they average less than four yards per carry. They'll again be without starter Charles Scott, who broke his collarbone, but Keiland Williams filled in well against Louisiana Tech and is averaging more than five yards per carry this season.

The Tigers' passing offense has been even more mediocre. They rank outside the top 100 in passing yards per game and average less than seven yards per attempt.

LSU hasn't said yet whether quarterback Jordan Jefferson, who also missed Saturday’s game but did practice some last week, will return.

The Tigers have made it to 8-2 on the strength of their defense. On the ground, they give up just 3.39 yards per carry. Through the air, they allow just 5.78 yards per attempt and have picked off more passes (12) than they've allowed to find the end zone (10). LSU ranks 13th in the country, allowing less than 4.5 yards per play.

After making an abundance of noise to start the season, Mississippi fell out of the national picture with a loss to South Carolina and a drubbing by Alabama. They haven't put together three consecutive victories yet this season, though they will get another chance to do so against LSU.

Ole Miss quarterback Jevan Snead was once considered a potential Heisman candidate, but those hopes have fallen by the wayside as fast as the Rebels fell out of SEC contention. The Rebels average 7.27 yards per pass attempt, but Snead has thrown 14 interceptions on the year and completes just over 52 percent of his passes.

But it's the Rebels offense that has exploded onto the scene. Dexter McCluster ran roughshod over Tennessee on Saturday, running for 283 yards—more than 11 per carry—and four touchdowns in a blowout victory over the Vols.

On the season, Ole Miss is averaging almost five yards per rush as attention shifts from Snead and the pass attack to McCluster and the ground game.

The Rebels aren't far behind the Tigers in terms of rushing defense, allowing less than 3.8 yards per carry. Both teams have been especially stout against the run at the goal line. LSU has allowed an amazingly low three rushing touchdowns while opponents have found the end zone on the ground against Ole Miss just eight times.

The Rebels are equally good against the pass, allowing just seven passing touchdowns and just 5.76 yards per passing attempt.

LSU and Mississippi could get together for one of the best defensive slugfests of the season. Either way, the game should stay close with two teams that are giving up less than 16 points per game, each ranking in the top 12 in the nation in scoring defense.

Our computers expect at least one team to eclipse 20 points and it's the home team pulling off a minor upset. In 10,0000 computer simulations, McCluster and the Rebels finally put together an official winning streak with a 23-17 victory over the Tigers.

Ole Miss ties LSU in the SEC West by winning 63.7 percent of the time.

Other Notable Games in Week 12

With the season winding down, many of the top conference races are all but over at the top (see Ohio State, the SEC title game and Texas just waiting to pounce on whoever comes out of the Big 12 North).

The Pac-10 belonged in that category about this time every year as well...until now.

USC's back-to-back blowouts have the conference race fairly wide open heading into the final few weeks. Now, Oregon remains in the Pac-10 driver's seat, and stays there 65.2 percent of the time this week, edging Arizona 27-23.

Just about every other game this week has implications as well. Stanford continues its hot run 70.6 percent of the time against Cal, winning 38-28. And Oregon State remains in the hunt 95 percent of the time at Washington State.

The Big East remains exciting as well, though not so much this week. Both 10-0 Cincinnati and 9-1 Pittsburgh have this week off and then will play one more game before meeting up in what could be a monumental season finale.

While the Bearcats officially have a zero percent chance of losing their first game of the season this week, the five other unbeatens' chances of losing are (unofficially) nearly as low.

Every one of them has a 95 percent (or better) chance of remaining undefeated this weekend as Florida takes on Florida International, Alabama gets Chattanooga, Texas hosts Kansas and TCU and Boise State each go on the road, facing Wyoming and Utah State, respectively.

While last week there was about a 50 percent chance that one of the teams would get upset, this week there is only about a 20 percent chance that will happen.

Temple, one of the hottest teams in the nation given its eight-game winning streak, moves that to a nine-game stretch 81.1 percent of the time against Kent State.

Seriously, we are talking about Temple.

That probably says more about the week than the team, but congrats to Al Golden and the Owls on their winning streak.

And finally, our computer can't predict the percentage chance that Charlie Weis keeps his job at Notre Dame, but it can predict whether he can boost his chances by winning against Connecticut as the Golden Domers get ready for another close game.

Notre Dame edges UConn 31-27, winning 54.7 percent of the time.

To see other picks like our Upset of the Week and Lock of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

College Football Week 12
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
North Carolina State Wolfpack	5.5	13
@ Virginia Tech Hokies	94.5	38
Maryland Terrapins	9.5	18
@ Florida State Seminoles	90.5	35
Virginia Cavaliers	12.4	8
@ Clemson Tigers	87.6	28
Duke Blue Devils	15.4	18
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes	84.6	32
North Carolina Tar Heels	55.2	18
@ Boston College Eagles	44.8	17
Louisville Cardinals	11.4	14
@ South Florida Bulls	88.6	30
Rutgers Scarlet Knights	91.5	29
@ Syracuse Orange	8.5	14
Minnesota Golden Gophers	9.0	8
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	91.0	24
Purdue Boilermakers	59.2	21
@ Indiana Hoosiers	40.8	18
Penn State Nittany Lions	76.1	27
@ Michigan State Spartans	23.9	20
Ohio State Buckeyes	80.6	27
@ Michigan Wolverines	19.4	16
Wisconsin Badgers	80.6	27
@ Northwestern Wildcats	19.4	17
Kent State Golden Flashes	18.9	12
@ Temple Owls	81.1	26
Eastern Michigan Eagles	19.4	15
@ Toledo Rockets	80.6	31
Akron Zips	38.3	14
@ Bowling Green Falcons	61.7	19
Northern Illinois Huskies	80.6	27
@ Ohio Bobcats	19.4	18
Buffalo Bulls	85.1	27
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	14.9	14
Central Michigan Chippewas	89.6	31
@ Ball State Cardinals	10.4	14
California Golden Bears	29.4	28
@ Stanford Cardinal	70.6	38
Arizona State Sun Devils	47.8	19
@ UCLA Bruins	52.2	22
Oregon Ducks	65.2	27
@ Arizona Wildcats	34.8	23
Oregon State Beavers	95.0	39
@ Washington State Cougars	5.0	10
Florida International Golden Panthers	5.0	5
@ Florida Gators	95.0	57
Chattanooga Mocs	5.0	4
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	95.0	54
Vanderbilt Commodores	13.9	11
@ Tennessee Volunteers	86.1	30
Kentucky Wildcats	17.4	13
@ Georgia Bulldogs	82.6	27
Mississippi State Bulldogs	23.9	22
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	76.1	34
LSU Tigers	36.3	17
@ Mississippi Rebels	63.7	23
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	20.4	24
@ Fresno State Bulldogs	79.6	37
Hawaii Warriors	91.0	37
@ San Jose State Spartans	9.0	19
Nevada Wolf Pack	95.0	48
@ New Mexico State Aggies	5.0	11
Boise State Broncos	95.0	46
@ Utah State Aggies	5.0	17
Connecticut Huskies	45.3	27
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	54.7	31
Kansas Jayhawks	5.0	8
@ Texas Longhorns	95.0	43
Colorado Buffaloes	5.0	12
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	95.0	37
Iowa State Cyclones	14.9	12
@ Missouri Tigers	85.1	26
Kansas State Wildcats	24.4	13
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	75.6	24
Baylor Bears	35.8	18
@ Texas A&M Aggies	64.2	24
Oklahoma Sooners	76.1	28
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders	23.9	21
Memphis Tigers	7.5	23
@ Houston Cougars	92.5	45
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	23.4	22
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	76.6	33
Tulane Green Wave	27.4	15
@ UCF Knights	72.6	25
UAB Blazers	58.2	25
@ East Carolina Pirates	41.8	24
Southern Methodist Mustangs	66.7	21
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	33.3	17
UTEP Miners	86.1	31
@ Rice Owls	13.9	15
San Diego State Aztecs	5.0	11
@ Utah Utes	95.0	35
Air Force Falcons	42.3	24
@ Brigham Young Cougars	57.7	29
Colorado State Rams	78.1	22
@ New Mexico Lobos	21.9	13
TCU Horned Frogs	95.0	42
@ Wyoming Cowboys	5.0	7
Florida Atlantic Owls	21.4	22
@ Troy Trojans	78.6	35
Army Black Knights	29.4	16
@ North Texas Mean Green	70.6	24
Arkansas State Red Wolves	46.3	17
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	53.7	21
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	85.1	26
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	14.9	14

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Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at [e-mail] . Thanks!