Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje: A Head to Toe Breakdown
UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0) is finally going to make his long-awaited 2020 debut after the COVID-19 outbreak shelved his last scheduled appearance.
Awaiting him in Abu Dhabi will be newly crowned interim champion Justin Gaethje (22-2), who surprised most people in the UFC world when he stepped in for Nurmagomedov on late notice to defeat Tony Ferguson in May at UFC 249.
UFC 254: Nurmagomedov-Gaethje is scheduled for October 24 at The Flash Forum on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi.
It's one of the biggest and most important title fights of the year, and Bleacher Report has you covered with a complete head-to-toe breakdown of the main event.
Striking
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Nurmagomedov is one of the most dominant forces in MMA history. He's ranked No. 2 on the UFC's official pound-for-pound list behind Jon Jones, and there's a solid argument to be made that he should be No. 1.
While the 32-year-old Russian dynamo is famous for the way he tracks his opponents down to the mat with the ferocity of a master Sambo stylist, Nurmagomedov also possesses a strong enough game on his feet to make him a complete fighter.
Nurmagomedov lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 49 percent. In turn, he only absorbs 1.65 significant strikes per minute, so his defensive prowess is rated at 67 percent. Nurmagomedov has scored eight stoppage wins in his career, though he ended many of those fights by pummelling his opponent from top position on the ground.
Gaethje, 31, is an offensive-minded slugger who throws tons of strikes and lands most of them. While eating more strikes in return is usually a recipe for disaster in the UFC, Gaethje's 7.74 significant strikes per minute tops the UFC's record book, and absorbing 8.37 per minute hasn't kept the American from winning big fights.
Gaethje's defense is rated at 59 percent. He's scored 19 knockouts in his career, and the last version of Gaethje seen inside the Octagon five months ago seemed more patient and precise than ever. He'll need those qualities against Nurmagomedov.
Gaethje's stunning power and high work rate give him a slight edge in the striking category, but Nurmagomedov's craftiness keeps it close.
Edge: Gaethje
Grappling
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Nurmagomedov possesses some of the best MMA grappling ever seen in the sport. Statistically, he's also much better than his opponent. Nurmagomedov averages 5.35 takedowns per 15 minutes, and his takedown accuracy is 47 percent. Moreover, Nurmagomedov is excellent at keeping the fight where he wants it—his takedown defense is 84 percent.
Gaethje was an All-American at Northern Colorado, but he's not done much wrestling since becoming an MMA fighter. Gaethje averages 0 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown defense is 80 percent, but pulling off the same or a similar number against Nurmagomedov would be borderline miraculous.
There's no doubt that Nurmagomedov's MMA grappling is superior to Gaethje's game.
Edge: Nurmagomedov
Submissions
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Nurmagomedov is excellent at taking his opponents down to the ground and grinding them into either stoppages or submissions. He's scored 10 total submission wins in his career, including arguably his best UFC wins in fights against Conor McGregor at UFC 229 in 2018 and Dustin Poirier at UFC 242 in 2019.
Overall, Nurmagomedov attempts 0.7 submissions per 15 minutes.
That's much higher than Gaethje, whose average submissions attempted per 15 minutes in his career is 0. The former World Series of Fighting lightweight champion hasn't submitted anyone in his seven UFC fights, and he's hardly even threatened with it.
Nurmagomedov's submission game gets the nod in this category, too.
Edge: Nurmagomedov
X-Factors
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Nurmagomedov's X-Factor: Grief After the Death of His Father
Khabib's father and trainer, Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, died of COVID-19 complications in a hospital in Moscow on July 3. The 57-year-old was incredibly close with his son, so the champ will probably feel a wide range of emotions when he enters the first fight of his life without his dad being around in some capacity.
Certainly, Nurmagomedov will have prepared for most of that, but grief is something that can strike in different ways, so there's sure to be some kind of unexpected thought or feeling he'll need to be ready for as fight night approaches.
Gaethje's X-Factor: Avoiding Takedowns
Under the tutelage of famed MMA guru Trevor Wittman, Gaethje has blossomed into a scary proposition on his feet. He strikes with such force and ferocity that he always seems on the verge of scoring knockouts. More recently, Gaethje's shown newfound patience that makes him look even more dangerous. Look no further for evidence of that than Gaethje's recent demolition job on Tony Ferguson's 12-fight win streak.
But beating Nurmagomedov will require more than just upgraded patience and precision. The American will need to keep the fight from going to the ground, so Gaethje's takedown defense is of utmost importance at UFC 254.
Prediction
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Gaethje was the trendy pick by some to hand Ferguson the loss in an upset at UFC 249 back in May, and he'll likely be the same for many against Nurmagomedov, too.
The only problem with that analysis, though, is that Ferguson has never been the pound-for-pound elite force Nurmagomedov is, and there's no data to suggest Nurmagomedov will be sliding down the pyramid anytime soon. Even if you once ranked Ferguson near the top of the mountain during his impressive 12-fight win streak, Ferguson was 36 when he lost to Gaethje. Nurmagomedov is still in his prime.
So UFC 254 is likely to look like any other Nurmagomedov fight. He'll overwhelm Gaethje over time and ultimately grab the dominant win either by submission or stoppage.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via third-round submission
Unless otherwise noted, all stats per UFC Stats and all UFC records per UFC Record Book.
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