Ohio State Is Rose Bowl Bound, Against Whom?

It's official.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are the 2009 Big Ten Football Champions.

After tanking two weeks in a row, the Iowa Hawkeyes have surrendered the number one spot to, you guessed it, Jim Tressel's Buckeyes.

Just three weeks ago, Iowa was presumed to be representing the Big Ten in the Tournament of Roses in Pasadena, things just didn't pan out for them, and their Cinderella season came to a crashing end on Saturday.

Northwestern de-railed Iowa's designs of a BCS bowl, Ohio State crushed any chance that they had left.

Granted, the Stanzi-less Hawkeyes did overcome a deficit late in the game to earn an overtime frame, but the Buckeyes were the stronger of the two for the majority of the game.

Daniel Barclay, the Buckeye kicker, assured a Rose Bowl appearance for his team with the winning field goal in overtime.

Terrelle Pryor is coming off a lackluster performance, he'll need to step it up come Rose Bowl time if the Buckeyes even want to be competitive in January.

The Buckeyes will most likely face the Oregon Ducks, a team that I previously put in a scenario with the Iowa Hawkeyes. With the Buckeyes in the picture, the scenario changes ever so slightly, but I still like the Ducks.

It's time to crunch some numbers and chew on some facts.

Oregon's backfield has over 2,000 yards rushing this season, just over half are claimed by standout runningback, LeMichael James.

The Ducks average near 5.5 yards a carry, with 26 touchdowns via the ground in 2009.

This stat impresses me on a couple of different levels.

1.) They absolutely ran wild on the number five ranked rush defense in the Pac Ten, Pete Carroll's mighty men of Troy, the USC Trojans, a team that Ohio State had trouble with. The Bucks were dropped by the Trojans by 3, on national television.

USC isn't the only team that has felt the wrath of the Duck, ask the rest of their conference opponents that they've ran amuck on (Washington State, Cal, and Arizona State, just to name a few).

2.) Oregon, as a team, runs for 233.6 yards a game, while putting up almost 37 points per outing.

Terrelle Pryor's strength is running the ball, everyone knows that. Will he be able to carry the load while running the ball for the Buckeyes?

Ohio State produces almost 100 yards less on the ground that the Ducks do. They're 3rd in the Big Ten when it comes to pounding out run yardage, but will that be enought to thwart the Ducks in the Rose Bowl?

Why was Stanford so successful against Oregon?

They were able to run the ball efficiently for big gains while sustaining drives.  

If Ohio Stae can establish a stout running pattern early on, that will be their best chance to beat a middle of the road Oregon rush defense. They're ranked 6th in their conference when it comes to defending the run.

I don't see Ohio State emerging with a "W" unless they are able to run the ball against Oregon.

One of Oregon's weaknesses is their passing offense, this just so happens to be a defect of the Ohio State game as well.

OSU ranks 10th, just above Illinois, in passing offense. They put up 30.3 points per game, but the Ducks are tops in their neck of the woods pertaining to defending the pass.

Oregon's numbers are just as bad.

The Ducks are ranked dead last in the Pac 10 in this catergory, a paltry 184 yards per game. Jeremiah Masoli is a dynamic quarterback, but he can't win the game by himself.

There will have to be a concentrated effort on running the ball against the Buckeyes, and stifling the Buckeye rush attack.

The Ducks, with their balanced plan of attack, will be able to handle a one dimensional Ohio State team. The formula to beat them is simple, take Pryor out of the game.

Posey won't be much of a deep threat if Pryor can't get the ball to him.

Terrelle Pryor has thrown 9 interceptions on the year, but against a pass defense like the one in Eugene, he'll have to be cautious heaving the ball, hoping that his favorite target, Posey can go get it. They've picked off opposing quarterbacks 11 times this season, that's good enough for second most in the Pac 10.

In short, I like the ground game possessed by the Oregon Ducks over Ohio State's. 

I believe that the passing attack will be sufficient to take out the Buckeyes as well.

Terrelle Pryor will have to be the Terrelle Pryor he was against Penn State to even think of competing with Oregon.

Pryor had considerable problems with Iowa, an Iowa team that would be taken care of with ease by Oregon.

Rose Bowl Prediction : Oregon 35, Ohio State 14.