Which Teams Will Over- or Underachieve in the 2020 CFB Season?
In every college football season, there are teams that drastically defy expectations—some in a good way, others not so much.
Baylor was supposed to battle TCU for fourth place in the Big 12 last year, but the latter went 5-7, while the former was an overtime loss in the conference championship game away from possibly making the College Football Playoff.
Navy wasn't even a projected bowl team last August, yet it won 11 games. Another military program followed a much different path, as Army won just five games in a season in which it was projected for 10 victories.
Which teams are poised to follow similar trajectories in 2020?
Based on preseason conference championship odds, we've nominated one likely overachiever and one likely underachiever from each of the ACC, Big 12 and SEC, as well as one each from the Group of Five.
Conference championship odds are from Vegas Insider.
ACC Overachiever: Louisville Cardinals
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ACC Championship Odds: +4000
Louisville was already one of the nation's biggest overachievers in 2019, going from a 2-10 disaster in Bobby Petrino's final season to an 8-5 surprise success story under Scott Satterfield. But I'll be darned if the Cardinals aren't in great shape for another unexpected leap forward.
Louisville only has the eighth-best odds to win the ACC, which is absurdly low given its talent and the schedule it will face.
Dual-threat quarterback Micale Cunningham is back, as is the backfield tandem of Javian Hawkins and Hassan Hall. That trio (mostly Hawkins) combined for more than 2,500 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns on the ground last season, not to mention Cunningham's 2,061 passing yards and 22 touchdowns.
The main beneficiaries of those passing yards, Tutu Atwell, Dez Fitzpatrick and tight end Marshon Ford, are all back too. The Cardinals offense averaged 33.1 points per game last year, but something closer to 40 is feasible in 2020.
The defense is the big question mark. The unit was downright awful in 2018, allowing 44.1 points per game. It cut that number to 33.4 last year, but further improvement is a must. All of last year's starting linebackers return, though we'll see if that's a good thing.
And then there's the schedule. Louisville faces neither Clemson nor North Carolina, and it gets each of Florida State, Miami and Virginia Tech at home. The road game against Notre Dame is the only one that can probably be penciled in as a loss, so the Cardinals have a great opportunity to at least finish as the fourth-best ACC team.
ACC Underachiever: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
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ACC Championship Odds: +600
Let's provide a quick reminder that underachieving is a relative term. Having Notre Dame in this spot doesn't mean the Fighting Irish will sputter to a disappointing 5-6 campaign, but it does mean they're a bit overrated at No. 10 in the preseason AP Top 25.
On offense, senior quarterback Ian Book is back, and so is the entire starting offensive line responsible for keeping him clean. Notre Dame lost just 80 yards on sacks in 2019, which was the third-lowest mark in the nation. That's a strong core to build around.
But the Irish lost starting running back Tony Jones Jr. as well as their top three receiving targets, Chase Claypool, Chris Finke and Cole Kmet. Jafar Armstrong is the projected starting running back, and he averaged a paltry 2.7 yards per carry last year. No returning player had more than 16 receptions or 268 receiving yards in 2019. Question marks abound for the skill positions.
The defense was even more gutted than the offense. Leading tacklers Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Drew White are back, but the Irish lost five of their top eight tacklers, as well as two of their best pass-rushers. Several of their projected starters barely saw the field last season, and that could be a major problem for a squad that—aside from the 45-14 loss to Michigan—thrived on defense.
Moreover, that defense benefited from an unsustainable degree of fumble luck.
Notre Dame led the nation with 19 fumbles recovered on defense while only losing five on offense. Both the 19 and the plus-14 margin in fumbles were the highest marks since Oregon recovered 21 (and lost seven) in 2014. The following year, the Ducks only gained nine fumbles and took a colossal step backward defensively.
A similar regression to the mean in that turnover column would bring Notre Dame back to the pack, possibly resulting in an unexpected loss or two (in addition to the expected loss to Clemson).
Big 12 Overachiever: Texas Tech Red Raiders
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Big 12 Championship Odds: +6600
Aside from annual bottom-feeder Kansas, Texas Tech has the worst odds of winning the Big 12.
If the Red Raiders have better luck in the injury department, though, they should be a middle-of-the-pack team.
Starting quarterback Alan Bowman only lasted three games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Two of the three running backs (Ta'Zhawn Henry and Armand Shyne) each missed multiple games. And the Red Raiders might have had 12 different starting 11s on defense, because the vast majority of key contributors missed one to three games with minor injuries.
That lack of consistency stunted their development. After a 3-2 start, they went 1-6. However, four of those six losses were by three points or fewer, so they don't need to improve by much to have a 5-5 or 6-4 type of year.
Bowman will be back and ready to chuck the ball 50 times per game. And on the receiving end of those passes, Texas Tech brings back six of the eight players who made at least 25 receptions last year, including leading rusher SaRodorick Thompson. The Red Raiders lost Henry and Shyne from the backfield mix, but Alabama transfer Chadarius Townsend could provide a big boost.
The defense will probably still rank among the worst in the Big 12, because, let's face it: This is Texas Tech we're talking about. The last time this team held its opponents below 30 points per game was in 2009. But there are more than enough weapons on this offense to win a handful of games in shootout fashion.
Big 12 Underachiever: TCU Horned Frogs
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Big 12 Championship Odds: +1600
On the one hand, six of TCU's seven losses in 2019 were by seven points or fewer, including a near-win at Oklahoma in late November.
But on the other hand, the Horned Frogs lost a ton of key players from what was already subpar season. Finishing in the top half of the Big 12 seems overly optimistic.
Running backs Darius Anderson and Sewo Olonilua and wide receiver Jalen Reagor were three of the most important players on last year's roster. Not only did they combine for 2,302 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns, but they were also collectively responsible for almost all the yards the Horned Frogs gained on kick returns and punt returns. Losing that trio as well as four of the five starting offensive linemen left this offense in a state of uncertainty.
Then in late August came the news that starting quarterback Max Duggan will be out indefinitely because of a recently discovered heart condition that he has had since birth.
TCU has not provided a solid timetable for his return, but per TCU 360's Colin Post, head coach Gary Patterson said there's a chance Duggan could return this season.
In any case, he missed most of fall camp because of this, and four of TCU's first five games are against SMU, Iowa State, Texas and Oklahoma. That's a rough opening slate with either a backup quarterback or a starter who is still getting up to speed.
The defense should be in better shape than the offense, but it also endured a few noteworthy personnel losses. The three leaders, linebacker Garret Wallow, defensive back Trevon Moehrig and defensive back Ar'Darius Washington, are all back, but the team lost Vernon Scott, Innis Gaines and Jeff Gladney from the secondary, as well as top defensive lineman Ross Blacklock.
TCU hasn't had back-to-back losing records since 1996-97, but that streak is probably going to end this year.
SEC Overachiever: Mississippi State Bulldogs
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SEC Championship Odds: +12500
By no means is this a suggestion that Mississippi State might win the loaded SEC West. But if any team from the SEC's bottom six—Arkansas, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Vanderbilt—figures to take somewhat of a step forward in 2020, it's the Bulldogs.
For starters, they get to face Arkansas, Missouri and Vanderbilt at home. They can't call those guaranteed wins, but those are the three easiest games one can draw in this league. Those teams went a combined 1-13 away from home in 2019, and the lone win was Missouri at Arkansas.
Finding other wins on the schedule won't be easy, but with star running back Kylin Hill and the additions of transfer quarterback K.J. Costello and head coach Mike Leach, Mississippi State should have the offensive prowess to steal a game or two.
Aside from Osirus Mitchell, MSU's wide receiver situation is a big unknown. The only other returning player with at least 12 receptions or 120 receiving yards in 2019 is Hill. But that's nothing new for Leach. Brandon Arconado led Washington State in receiving yards last year with 1,109, and he had made just four receptions in the previous two seasons combined. And upgrading at quarterback from Tommy Stevens and Garrett Shrader to Costello instantly makes this passing attack much more dangerous. They'll find guys who can catch. Alabama graduate transfer Tyrell Shavers should be one of them.
Defense is the much bigger concern. The Bulldogs lost six of the nine leading tacklers from a unit that was already helpless against the SEC West's top tier. Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M averaged 44.8 points against MSU. Each team completed better than 71 percent of its pass attempts, and LSU was the only one that didn't also eviscerate the Bulldogs in the ground game.
If the Bulldogs are going to shock one of those four teams (or Georgia), they're going to at least need to force the occasional punt.
SEC Underachiever: LSU Tigers
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SEC Championship Odds: +650
As with Notre Dame, the argument here isn't that LSU will be terrible, but rather that it probably won't live up to the hype at the No. 6 team in the preseason AP poll.
With Ja'Marr Chase opting out, LSU lost nine starters from its national championship offense. The returning Terrace Marshall Jr. is a nice building block. The Tigers also have one of the best incoming freshmen in the nation in tight end Arik Gilbert. And it definitely bears mentioning that John Emery Jr. was a 5-star recruit and the No. 2 running back in last year's class.
Still, banking on a new starting quarterback (Myles Brennan), four new starters along the offensive line and a new offensive coordinator could result in more than a few hiccups.
The defense was also gutted. Linebackers K'Lavon Chaisson, Jacob Phillips and Patrick Queen all left early, as did standout safety Grant Delpit. Cornerback Kristian Fulton, linebacker Michael Divinity Jr. and lineman Rashard Lawrence each exhausted his final year of eligibility. And then a tough situation grew even tougher when cornerback Kary Vincent Jr. and linemen Neil Farrell Jr. and Tyler Shelvin all opted out of this season.
Add it all up and LSU only brings back three of its top 13 tacklers from last season. The addition of FCS All-American linebacker Jabril Cox should be crucial, but it's hard to imagine a scenario in which this defense doesn't take a step backward, even with all-world cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. defending half the field.
And in the SEC, even a slight step backward figures to have major consequences. LSU has to play road games against Florida, Auburn and Texas A&M, as well as a home game against Alabama. The best team in the country could probably handle that slate, but a team more in the Nos. 10-15 range is liable to go 6-4 against this schedule. The Tigers will still be more than fine, but it's hard to envision a return trip to the CFP.
Group of 5 Overachiever: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
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Appalachian State was the only Sun Belt team to receive AP Top 25 votes, but Louisiana might be the best team in the conference. The season opener at Iowa State should be a solid indicator as to whether the Ragin' Cajuns might topple the mighty Mountaineers.
Louisiana had one of the nation's best rushing attacks last year, and that should remain the case with Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas back in the fold. That duo combined for 27 rushing touchdowns last season and has posted 5,968 yards from scrimmage and 69 touchdowns since the beginning of 2017.
It's quite the dynamic duo, and ULL quarterback Levi Lewis quietly threw for 3,050 yards with a 26-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his first year as the starter. In the Sun Belt championship loss to App State, he set new career highs in both passing yards (346) and touchdowns (four), and he was subsequently lights out in the LendingTree Bowl victory over Miami-Ohio.
It's no accident this team ranked 10th nationally in scoring average (37.9 points per game).
The defense was also well above average last year, holding opponents below 20 points per game. Most of that group also returns, although replacing leading tackler Jacques Boudreaux could prove difficult.
Louisiana will play at Appalachian State on Oct. 7 before a presumed rematch in the conference championship game. Win either of those contests, and the Ragin' Cajuns might make an appearance in the AP Top 25 for the first time in program history.
Group of 5 Underachiever: Cincinnati Bearcats
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Head coach Luke Fickell has done an incredible job with this Cincinnati squad in quick order. The Bearcats were 4-8 before he took over and 4-8 in his first season, but they have won 11 games in each of the past two campaigns.
However, UCF should be the highest-ranked Group of Five team, not Cincinnati.
They're essentially tied in the preseason poll, so we're splitting hairs here. The Bearcats are No. 20 with 234 votes, while the Knights are No. 21 with 229 votes. But UCF should be comfortably ahead of a Cincinnati team that has to replace many of the best players from an offense that already wasn't anything special.
Running back Michael Warren II is the major loss. Over the past two seasons, he had racked up nearly 3,000 yards from scrimmage and 36 touchdowns. Cincinnati did add Jerome Ford as an immediately eligible transfer from Alabama and still has Gerrid Doaks (526 rushing yards last year), but it won't be the same without Warren.
The Bearcats also lost three of Desmond Ridder's four favorite targets in tight end Josiah Deguara and wide receivers Rashad Medaris and Malick Mbodj. Transfers Jordan Jones (Arkansas) and Michael Young Jr. (Notre Dame) might be key contributors, but this passing attack was already Cincinnati's Achilles' heel back when the receivers were known commodities. It could be a major problem this year.
The saving grace is the defense. The Bearcats have 10 returning starters from a group that stifled just about every opponent except for Ohio State (understandable) and East Carolina (still confounding). Cincinnati only allowed 20.6 points per game in 2019, and that number may well improve in 2020. At any rate, it needs to improve if this team is going to live up to the hype of being the front-runner to win the AAC.
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