2020 NBA Free Agents: Predictions for Kris Dunn, Jerami Grant, Top Defenders

Point production is the easiest way to see a player impacting winning.

But point prevention means just as much—or even more, if you subscribe to the defense-wins-championships theory—for NBA success. It's just that great defense often takes place in the subtleties of the sport, and despite the statistical advancements in this analytical age, there still isn't a great way to measure defensive dominance.

Scouts are tracking the less glamorous end, though, and they'll put that research to work once the 2020 free-agency market opens. Knowing that, let's take a closer look at some of the top stoppers available this offseason and predict where they'll suit up next season.

Kris Dunn, Chicago Bulls (Restricted)

Originally drafted fifth overall in 2016 by the Minnesota Timberwolves and traded the following summer in a package for Jimmy Butler, Dunn spent his first three seasons searching for his NBA niche.

He found it in his fourth go-round. Repurposed as a do-it-all defender in coach Jim Boylen's aggressive scheme, Dunn quickly climbed the ladder of premier perimeter stoppers. ESPN's defensive real plus-minus slotted him fifth overall and second among guards. FiveThirtyEight's defensive RAPTOR ranked Dunn seventh in the league and again second among backcourt players.

"He's an all-defensive defender if I've ever seen one, and I've seen a few of them," Boylen told reporters. "Paul George, Kawhi Leonard. He's an All-Defensive guy."

Dunn doesn't pose much of an offensive threat. He can be a caretaker on the ball (career 4.2 assists against 1.8 turnovers), but he's not a shooter by any stretch (42.2/30.6/72.6 career slash line). He's the opposite of a spacer, misfiring on all but 24.1 percent of the threes he launched this season without a defender within six feet of him.

The defensive versatility and ability to force turnovers have value—probably enough of it for Chicago to extend his $7.1 million qualifying offer. Unless an outside suitor comes in with a bloated offer—unlikely given the shortage of cap space and his offensive limitations—he seems likeliest to rejoin the Bulls and play out next season on that qualifying offer.

Prediction: Dunn signs qualifying offer and remains with Bulls for next season.

Jerami Grant, Denver Nuggets (Player Option)

The limitations of defensive metrics takes center stage in any discussion with Grant.

The eye test sees him as an impact addition for the Nuggets. He made them more multiple on defense with the ability to guard extra positions. He seemingly justified the not-cheap price tag of last summer's trade out of Oklahoma City that cost Denver its 2020 first-rounder.

"I think the reason we were so excited on the night of that trade while we were in Vegas was because of everything Jerami's shown us throughout the season," Nuggets coach Michael Malone told reporters. "The three-point shooting, the defense, the playmaking, the versatility, and I think we've seen him play some small forward."

From a statistical standpoint, though, the numbers aren't convinced of Grant's impact. In fact, he has one of the worst net differentials of any player in the rotation (11.2 points worse per 100 possessions with him than without), and the difference surprisingly rests largely on the defensive end (8.1 points worse per 100 possessions).

That could lead to some interesting debates in Denver's front office, assuming Grant declines his $9.3 million player option for next season. With Paul Millsap entering unrestricted free agency, the Nuggets could be forced to choose between the power forwards. Since the Nuggets already sacrificed a first-round pick to get Grant, the younger and more athletic of the two, he seems the likeliest bet to stick around.

Prediction: Green declines player option, signs three-year deal with Nuggets.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Toronto Raptors (Unrestricted)

For the second consecutive offseason, Hollis-Jefferson hits the open market as an impact defender with a spotty offensive profile.

Last summer, he had to settle for a one-year, $2.5 million pact with the Raptors. Despite handling a not-insignificant role for the defending champs (19.2 minutes per night across 52 contests), he could be forced to look outside of Toronto for his next gig. The Raptors have a slew of free-agents-to-be on the roster, including Fred VanVleet, Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka and Chris Boucher (restricted), which might squeeze out Hollis-Jefferson.

If the decision comes down to Boucher or Hollis-Jefferson, the former's rim protection, floor spacing and free-agency type could all get him the nod.

"Boucher is probably the more important piece going forward for the Raptors," the Athletic's Eric Koreen wrote. "That he is a restricted free agent for whom the Raptors have early-Bird rights, instead of an unrestricted free agent that comes with non-Bird rights in Hollis-Jefferson, could also make it simpler for the Raptors to retain him."

Hollis-Jefferson won't break the bank by NBA standards, and he'll likely have to settle for another short-term pact given how few win-now teams have money to spend.

Prediction: Hollis-Jefferson signs one-year deal with Nuggets.