NBA Free Agents 2020: Contract Predictions for Brandon Ingram and Top Wings
If it feels like all NBA eyes are on the 2021 free-agency market, that's because they kind of are.
The class could be overflowing with difference-makers, starting with reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. If he declines the upcoming supermax offer from the Milwaukee Bucks, the 2021 offseason could reshape basketball's power structure.
Before that happens, though, the 2020 free-agent class will take center stage. And even if it's lacking in notable names—especially if Anthony Davis circles back to the Los Angeles Lakers, as expected—it has at least a handful of intriguing players who will command major money.
We'll spotlight the top three wings available and predict what lies ahead in their free-agency future.
Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans (Restricted)
In October, there were legitimate questions over how Ingram's restricted free agency might play out. A contract extension didn't make sense for either side at the time, since he was new to the franchise and coming off a campaign shortened by a blood clot.
Fast forward to the present, and it feels like the basketball gods forgot to warn us about the spoiler alert his season produced.
The 22-year-old engineered an All-Star breakout that should ingrain him in the franchise fabric. His stat sheet was basically one career high after the next, with his marks peaking in both volume (24.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists) and efficiency (19.2 player efficiency rating, 59.0 true shooting percentage).
The Pelicans aren't letting him out of their sights. Back in November, executive vice president David Griffin told The Undefeated's Marc J. Spears the team had "every intention of keeping him long-term." In March, he hopped on the team's official Twitter account to label Ingram's playmaking ability "vastly underrated and...a lethal piece for us moving forward."
New Orleans shouldn't waste any time with this. Rather than force Ingram to find a four-year max on his own—which risks both an unfriendly contract structure and the alienation of a young All-Star—the Pels should put the full five-year offer in front of him as soon as they're allowed.
Prediction: Ingram signs full five-year max with the Pelicans.
Gordon Hayward, Boston Celtics (Player Option)
Hayward holds a $34.2 million player option for next season with the Celtics. There is virtually no chance he finds a salary close to that number in this market.
But that doesn't mean he will automatically take the money.
For a 30-year-old who's already had one season erased by injury, he'll surely see the security appeal of a longer-term contract. He's putting together a brilliant campaign (17.3 points on 50.2/39.2/84.7 shooting) and would find it easier to stand out among the hoopers-for-hire this offseason than next.
Still, it's hard to see Hayward ultimately uncovering anything more attractive than that option.
Picking it up means again filling a semifeatured role on a contender—that should be even better with its younger players maturing—that is orchestrated by his college coach. And even if he finds himself in a more crowded player pool next summer, his earning potential could still be greater since many more clubs will have money to spend.
Prediction: Hayward exercises player option with the Celtics.
Danilo Gallinari, Oklahoma City Thunder (Unrestricted)
If timing means as much to free agents as location does to those in real estate, consider the last two campaigns to be Gallinari's beachfront property.
Minus the unfavorable market conditions, free agency is arriving at the perfect time for the 6'10" scoring forward. He's never been a more efficient shooter or a more consistent scorer. He's the only player to average 19 points and two three-pointers and post a 40-plus three-point percentage in each of the last two seasons.
His scoring and spacing have been critical components of OKC's surprising success, but they probably don't have a long future in the Sooner State. The Thunder are still in the early stages of their post-Russell Westbrook rebuild, so they'd have a hard time justifying a major investment in a player who will turn 32 before next season tips off.
That's assuming, of course, a contender ponies up for Gallinari, which is no given in this financial climate. But the Miami Heat have money to spend, and they came close to getting him at the trade deadline.
This relationship makes as much sense now as it did then. The Heat need his shooting and point production, and they have enough versatility on defense to mask any of his limitations.
If he's open to a bloated, short-term deal, it could prove mutually beneficial. Gallinari gets the kind of salary he won't find elsewhere (probably in the $20 million range), and Miami maintains flexibility for a run at Antetokounmpo in 2021.
Prediction: Gallinari signs two-year deal with team option with the Heat.
