4 Ways Justin Gaethje Can Beat Tony Ferguson at UFC 249

Let's concede reality: Justin Gaethje is an underdog—albeit not a prohibitive one—for a reason.

The guy he'll meet in the reconfigured UFC 249 main event, Tony Ferguson, is on both the lightweight (No. 1) and pound-for-pound (No. 10) rankings lists and hasn't lost a fight in over eight years.

So, if you're heading to a betting window before fight time arrives Saturday night, you'd be something less than a fiscal daredevil if you went ahead and laid mad money down on the fiery Californian.

But if you think that means Gaethje can't win their interim 155-pound title match, think again.

The 31-year-old's wrestling chops rival anyone else's on the promotional roster, he's vaporized three straight foes with punches inside of a single round and has been carrying himself with the sort of confidence needed when transitioning from the cable-TV kiddie pool to the pay-per-view deep end.

Ferguson is everything they say he is, but the gap between him and Gaethje is hardly vast.

To illustrate that point, we put together a brief list with some ways and means through which the B-sider can break through and add himself to the company's belted class.

Click through to see if you agree, and let us know in the comments what you think.

1. Punch Early, Punch Often

Jeff Bottari/Getty Images

OK, we know we're not breaking news by suggesting Gaethje can win with his fists.

But that doesn't make it any less true.

The guy has got the sort of heavy hands that can turn a fight in an instant, and it's precisely what has propelled a ladder climb since he dropped consecutive bouts to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier in 2017-18.

James Vick was sent face-first to the canvas by the first right hand that hit him. Edson Barboza was wobbled by nearly every shot before a right-hand bomb ended his night, too. A taller, longer Donald Cerrone—three months after a TKO by Ferguson—withstood a few more but met the same fate in four-plus minutes.

Ferguson is admittedly a grade ahead of each of them on their best nights, but Gaethje's patience as he seeks his shots and his willingness to take two to land one will surely provide opportunity come Saturday.

And if he does land it, don't be surprised if Ferguson strikes the same semi-conscious pose.

2. Get Him on the Ground

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

If Gaethje wants to veer off everyone's assumed strategic course, he's got a viable option.

The Arizona native was a two-time state wrestling champion during his high school days, and he continued to flourish on the mat on the way to earning D-I All-American status at the University of Northern Colorado.

Wrestling hasn't been Gaethje's go-to tool since joining the MMA ranks, and he's not left his feet in recent victories, but Ferguson had significant early difficulty with a credible wrestler like Kevin Lee—a D-II competitor in college—who won the first round and pushed ahead with several takedown tries in the second.

Ferguson worked into a triangle choke and won by submission in Round 3.

It's predictably hard to convince a KO artist that he needs another way, but a Gaethje effort to get things on the ground from the get-go might not only confuse Ferguson but also slow him down enough to make a big punch easier to land later on.

3. Sweep the Legs

Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images

Gaethje's power numbers don't reveal the whole story.

Yes, he's ended 18 of his 21 pro wins by KOs or TKOs, but they haven't all been one-shot blowouts.

In fact, even though neither lasted a full five minutes, both the Barboza and Cerrone fights—particularly the former—saw Gaethje make a concerted effort to batter his foe's legs with kicks before going all-in on the heavy artillery via his fists.

Barboza's lead leg was noticeably reddened and his mobility clearly impaired by the time their March 2019 fight was two minutes old, and Gaethje's win over Cerrone six months later was another example of the Arizonan's aim to chop away at his man from the bottom up.

If he wasn't in position to land a punch, a whip-crack strike from his right leg was just as good.

In fact, leg kicks were the official source of stoppage wins over Brian Cobb (TKO 3, 2013), Luis Palomino (TKO 3, 2015) and Brian Foster (TKO 1, 2016) during Gaethje's days with the World Series of Fighting promotion, so it won't be a new trail for him this weekend if he blazes it with his feet.

4. Blur His Focus

Josh Hedges/Getty Images

Gaethje's fourth path to victory has more to do with Ferguson himself.

The former interim champ at 155 pounds has 12 straight wins since 2012, and just three of those dozen opponents have heard the final bell, but it's no stretch to say that the favorite was hoping for a different title scenario this weekend.

He was initially going to headline the UFC 249 show opposite full-fledged lightweight king Khabib Nurmagomedov, but the worldwide pandemic dealt what feels like the 100th postponing blow—truth told, it's only the fifth—to their fight since it was initially scheduled in December 2015.

Ferguson has been the good promotional soldier and has maintained his entertaining persona since Gaethje was confirmed as Nurmagomedov's replacement for the remixed show early last month, but he'd not be the first favorite to arrive less than engaged after a hoped-for date backed out.

Add the fact that he's 36 years old and has been fighting as a pro for a third of his life and it'd be less than an earth-jarring shock if he was simply outdesired by a younger, more powerful and hungrier foe anxious to make the kind of elite-level splash that Ferguson made long ago.

It could happen. And you shouldn't be too surprised if it does.

That said...if El Cucuy chokes him out in three minutes flat, this conversation never happened.