MLB Free Agents 2020: Contract Predictions for Trevor Bauer, More Top Pitchers

There's no telling what sort of market the 2020-21 MLB free-agent class will face on the other side of the coronavirus pandemic.

An abridged season and the potential for fewer fans or no fans at all will inevitably result in lost revenue, and that could have an impact on how much teams are willing to spend next winter. Still, with a limited supply of impact players, the cream of the free-agent crop still figures to cash in on the open market.

With that in mind, here's a look at the top pitchers of the upcoming class, complete with predictions for what their next contract might look like.

Trevor Bauer

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Trevor Bauer is going to be one of the most compelling free-agency cases in recent memory.

Not only is he arguably the top starting pitcher available on the upcoming free-agent market, but he has also indicated that he will be exclusively be seeking one-year deals for the duration of his career, telling reporters in early 2019:

"I'll go year-to-year my entire career. Why would you lock yourself in a situation that may not make you happy? I think that’s highly inefficient. Everybody is afraid of risk. Everyone is scared.

It’s still unproven how clubs feel about it, but looking at the market, and studying it, I identified for myself personally that it’s the best route to go forward."

The 29-year-old agreed to a $17.5 million salary for the 2020 season in his final year of arbitration, and he is no doubt seeking a raise over that figure, especially given the low-risk nature of a one-year deal for teams.

The one-year, $23 million contract that Josh Donaldson signed with the Atlanta Braves prior to the 2019 season stands as the highest salary in MLB history on a one-year, free-agent contract. Bauer could make a run at eclipsing that figure, especially if he returns to All-Star form after a rocky few months following his trade to the Cincinnati Reds.

At worst, he could always accept a one-year qualifying offer, which was set at $17.8 million this year and will likely be in that neighborhood again next year.

Contract Prediction: One year, $22 million

Marcus Stroman

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It took the baseball world by surprise when the New York Mets came away as the winners of the Marcus Stroman sweepstakes last summer despite a middling record and slim playoff hopes.

That trade was undoubtedly made with 2020 in mind considering the team was set to lose Zach Wheeler in free agency, and Stroman provided a suitable replacement to the starting rotation.

The 28-year-old tossed 184.1 innings last season and has a pair of 200-inning campaigns already under his belt, effectively silencing the critics who wondered whether his undersized 5'7" frame could handle a starter's workload early in his career.

The energy and enthusiasm he brings to the mound and the clubhouse only furthers his appeal as a free agent, and for teams not willing to play the one-year game with Bauer, he could be the most appealing target.

With a 3.76 ERA and 113 ERA+ in 849.1 innings over the course of his six-year career, he has a strong enough track record of success to command a significant payday in his first foray into free agency.

Will he top the five-year, $118 million deal Wheeler signed with the Philadelphia Phillies?

Contract Prediction: Five years, $125 million

Robbie Ray

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Over the past three years, there have been just 11 left-handed starters who have eclipsed 200 strikeouts in a season.

Robbie Ray has done it twice, including a career-high 235 punchouts in 2019, and he has struck out hitters at an 11.9 K/9 rate over the past four seasons.

However, the peripheral numbers leave something to be desired.

He had a less-than-dominant 4.34 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 174.1 innings last season, due in part to a 4.3 BB/9 walk rate.

The 28-year-old is not a top-of-the-rotation option, but his swing-and-miss stuff provides an appealing foundation for teams looking to bolster their starting staff with a quality No. 3 starter.

While that may not sounds like the profile of a pitcher headed for a significant financial windfall, remember the Boston Red Sox handed Nathan Eovaldi a four-year, $68 million deal prior to the 2019 season with a significantly less impressive track record of success.

Contract Prediction: Four years, $72 million

Mike Minor

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Mike Minor was a different pitcher last time he hit free agency.

After a strong start to his career in the Atlanta Braves rotation, he suffered a torn labrum in his left shoulder that wound up costing him the entire 2015 and 2016 seasons.

He returned for the second season of a two-year, $7.25 million contract with the Kansas City Royals and pitched exclusively as a reliever, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 10.2 K/9 in 65 appearances.

That was enough to make him one of the top relief pitchers on the free-agent market that offseason, but the Texas Rangers had other ideas, inking him to a three-year, $28 million deal with the intention of moving him back into a starting role.

Two years into that contract, he's been worth 11.2 WAR, and he finished eighth in AL Cy Young voting last year after going 14-10 with a 3.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 200 strikeouts in 208.1 innings.

Given his age (32) and injury history, he carries a bit more risk than the other top-tier starters on this year's market, but there's a strong case to be made that he was the best of the bunch in 2019.

The three-year, $55.5 million deal that Dallas Keuchel signed with the Chicago White Sox this offseason could be a reasonable target in negotiations.

Contract Prediction: Three years, $57 million

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, unless otherwise noted.