Projecting Tua Tagovailoa's Season-Long, Dynasty Fantasy Value with Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins have embarked on a new era after selecting Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the fifth overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft.

Tagovailoa dominated the college ranks, notably throwing 33 touchdowns to just three interceptions last year. His most legendary moment occurred when he came off the bench for Jalen Hurts in the 2018 College Football Playoff national championship against Georgia and led his team to an overtime win after tossing the game-winning score to DeVonta Smith.

Tagovailoa never lost a game against a team that did not win the national championship. The lone 2018 defeat was to Clemson in the national title, and the left-hander's only loss in 2019 was to LSU.

This brings up the question as to what his 2020 season-long fantasy football and dynasty fantasy football values may be. 

Mike Clay, the ESPN fantasy football projection guru, has Tagovailoa making 13 starts in 2020 with a stat line of 18 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, a 61.6 percent completion rate, 3,271 passing yards, 139 rushing yards and a score on the ground.

That would amount to a total of 210.74 fantasy points assuming standard scoring of four points for every passing touchdown, a negative point for every interception, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing yards and six points for every rushing touchdown.

Over 13 starts, that would equal 16.21 points per game. That figure would have been 23rd among quarterbacks in 2019, per FantasyPros.

A consensus ranking of 26 experts aggregated by FantasyPros as of Wednesday morning lists Tagovailoa 32nd among all quarterbacks in fantasy for the 2020 season, in the middle of Tier 5. He has a high ranking of 24 and a low ranking of 42.

There's no denying Tagovailoa's talent. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller ranked him sixth among all prospects and second on his list of quarterbacks. Miller also ranked Tagovailoa as having the best field vision among all signal-callers.

He also put up video game numbers at Alabama, completing 69.3 percent of his passes for 87 touchdowns and 10.9 yards per pass attempt in three years.

The question is how Tagovailoa will do without one of the best possible supporting casts in college football. Tagovailoa had the luxury of throwing to two top-15 overall picks in wideouts Henry Ruggs III and Jerry Jeudy and a potential one in Smith.

Tagovailoa won't have a stud pass-catching crew in Miami, but the group has potential thanks to strong seasons in 2019 from wideouts DeVante Parker (72 catches, 1,204 yards, nine touchdowns) and Preston Williams (32 catches, 428 yards and three touchdowns in eight games), and tight end Mike Gesicki (36 catches, 417 yards and five touchdowns in his final nine games).

The Dolphins will also have a refurbished offensive line with first-round draft pick Austin Jackson out of USC and free-agent pickups Ereck Flowers and Ted Karras.

However, it's unclear who will be starting Week 1 at quarterback for Miami at this time.

Veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who started the majority of 2019, is still on the roster. The Fins could conceivably stick with him to start and ease Tagovailoa into action later in the season.

Another issue complicating matters: NFL facilities are closed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and it's unclear when teams will be able to commence in-person offseason programs at franchise headquarters.

Alain Poupart of Sports Illustrated's AllDolphins wrote more on the matter:

"There's no timetable for when training camps will open, but any delay there would be detrimental to Tua in terms of his ability to make an immediate impact because he does have a new offense to learn, new teammates with whom to build a rapport, and still needs to convince the Dolphins he's completely ready from a physical standpoint.

"Having said all that, if Tagovailoa blows everybody away with his on-field and off-field work, the Dolphins aren't going to keep him out of the lineup for the sake of keeping him out of the lineup."

Also potentially complicating matters: Tagovailoa is coming off a hip dislocation injury that forced him to miss the end of the 2019 season. However, ESPN's Stephania Bell reported the following good news prior to the draft:

Poupart then wrote that a "more realistic timetable" has the Dolphins starting Tagovailoa at the quarter mark or halfway point of the season. He also didn't rule out the idea that 2020 could be a redshirt year of sorts for the ex-Alabama star.

Unless fantasy team owners receive clarity on Tagovailoa's starting status prior to drafts, then he's likely a bench quarterback in two-quarterback leagues as best.

Ultimately, taking Tagovailoa is a better bet in dynasty leagues, where he should be the second rookie quarterback off the board after the Cincinnati Bengals' Joe Burrow.

The upside should be high for Tagovailoa considering his promising pass-catching crew and rushing upside.

Plus, the Dolphins' 2021 cap space (No. 11 in NFL, per Over the Cap) and 2021 draft picks (all of their own in addition to the Houston Texans' first- and second-rounders) could bring even more talented offensive players into the mix to help the signal-caller.

As for where his dynasty value ultimately resides, Tagovailoa went 20th overall in CBS Sports' dynasty rookie draft, six behind Burrow and two spots ahead of the Los Angeles Chargers' Justin Herbert. Clay ranked Tagovailoa 25th on his dynasty rookie big board, and Rotoballer placed him 15th.

In summary, Tagovailoa should have a mid-to-late second-round dynasty grade, in part because of a bevy of talented running backs and wideouts set to make a massive impact in year one or two (e.g. Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Denver Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy) that should bring him down.

In other years, Tagovailoa could have been an easy first-round dynasty choice.